JotCast | D1Baseball Weekly Chat: March 9

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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: March 9

Aaron Fitt

12:30

Hi everybody, hope you enjoyed the weekend in college baseball. Let's get after it.

Pablo

12:33

Are we ready to admit the chosen conference (SEC) is overrated this year or will they still get propped up?

Aaron Fitt

12:33

Ooh ooh, I love overreaction Monday in March! Yes clearly the SEC stinks and is overrated and overhyped as always. Hey listen, feel free to believe that with all of your heart, and then talk to me in June. A couple very talented SEC teams laid eggs this week -- it happens, #ThatsBaseball. If you are going to write off LSU and Florida, like I said, that is your prerogative. I sure will not be writing them off. They both have some things to figure out, but way too much talent for those clubs to just stink all year.

Poll Mechanics

12:35

In a tweet, the Nerdmaster General says of LSU: "Lost 4 of last 5, and 5 of last 9. Conference play begins next week at Vanderbilt. Can the Tigers flip the switch?" Shouldn't we also be asking the same question of the Commodores, who have lost 5 of their last 8?

Aaron Fitt

12:35

For sure, the same question applies to Vandy. But I think Mark's phrasing was a result of expectations being considerably higher this year for LSU than for Vandy. Vandy is still Vandy, and has the talent to make a run, but I don't think any of us ever really viewed this year's Dores as national title contenders. But your point stands nonetheless -- Vandy is on the struggle bus and needs to flip the switch in a hurry. Feels like a pretty big series to open SEC play for both.

SmartMuffin

12:39

I know that the real answer is "It's still early and we don't want to over-react" but the UVA/UNC series sure looked like an eye-opener. Is this more about UVA being better than we thought - or UNC worse than we thought?

Aaron Fitt

12:39

I talked about this on today's pod -- for me, teams 2 through about 9 in our preseason ACC pecking order felt almost interchangeable. There were things we really liked about all of them, but none of them felt truly complete -- there were clear flaws they all needed to address. In UVa's case, we wanted to see how the pitching would coalesce, because there was a lack of track record in the rotation. We loved the lineup, it was clearly a better lineup than UNC's from the jump, but UNC had much more track record on the mound. So far, UVa's pitching looks very encouraging, and this was indeed a bit of an eye opener because those arms held up well in Virginia's first test against high-end competition. I like both clubs; I think both will have good years and spend most of the year in the Top 25, and make strong runs at hosting. But I do like UVa's position player group considerably more, so if those arms keep performing, that's definitely a stock-up club.

Travis

12:43

How big is this weekend's series with Kansas and the midweek series with UTSA now for Texas Tech? Granted, they haven't faced the best competition outside of Arlington back in opening weekend, but it seems like for the first time in several years the Red Raiders have guys that don't just hit for power but are also taking smarter at bats and focusing on moving base runners. Starting pitching remains a work in progress, but appears to have seen improvement and it looks like Steve Foster is giving Tech a decent bullpen for the first time in a few years as well.

Aaron Fitt

12:43

Yeah good call, the last three weeks have been pretty encouraging for the Red Raiders, but this week is definitely a bigger test. That said, we did kinda like Penn State heading into the season, so even though the Nittany Lions have really struggled early on, TTU obliterating those guys over three games has my attention. Now we'll find out how far this team has come since that 0-3 weekend at Globe Life. UTSA and Kansas will be great measuring sticks.

Billy

12:43

Do you think OU is truly a top 10 team, or is this a function of needing to have 10 teams in the top 10? Their wins in Arlington have lost some luster since that first weekend so curious to know whether they are actually good or just a placeholder right now

Kendall Rogers

12:43

Billy -- I think OU is pretty good, but I do think Texas A&M is the best offense that OU pitching staff will have faced a little later this week in Norman. I think the offense is good, not great, but I'm pretty sold on the starting rotation. LJ Mercurius continues to dazzle with 34 strikeouts in 23.1 innings, and I'm still buying Cam Johnson stock with 32 strikeouts in 21.1 innings of work. Cord Rager also continues to throw well, with teams only hitting him at a ridiculously low .169 clip. This should be a fascinating series for a few reasons.

Eric Simmons

12:45

What will it take for California to be ranked? They've won 11 straight games!

Kendall Rogers

12:45

Eric -- California is most definitely on the radar. A series win over North Carolina would probably put the Bears in the rankings. I'm super impressed with the job Mike Neu is doing considering some of the Golden Bears' losses to the portal last summer. That lineup just seems so deep. I was following a couple of Cal's games over the weekend, and it just felt like the depth was immense with Hideki Prather at the top, Daniel Murillo in the middle and other guys like Jett Kenady getting big-time production as well. That's a SCARY series for UNC considering the cross-country travel.

Gofrogs05

12:50

Is there a team in the country that has been hit harder by arm injuries this year than TCU? LaPour, Eudy, Franco, Barrientes, Rodriguez…. Not to mention Franco is also the 4 hole hitter. Excluding Rodriguez, is there any chance for return in the near future fore any of those other arms?

Kendall Rogers

12:50

I can't think of a team off the top of my head hit by injuries that significant, that's for sure. Louis Rodriguez was either going to be a weekend starter or one of the most reliable relievers, while LaPour is obviously LaPour. I'll double check on TLP later today with Coach Saarloos. I'm a big believer in the offense, but the Frogs definitely need to get a shred healthier to meet the preseason goals.

Aaron Fitt

12:54

I'll just chime in, Coastal obviously comes to mind, having lost three preseason All-America pitchers to injury plus a very talented No. 2 starter.

Poll Mechanics

12:53

We've seen the occasional multi-year lull like this from Stanford, but is there any reason to believe they will actually stop losing three times as many impact portal guys as they bring in? A pitching staff with a 6.58 ERA clearly misses guys like Volchko, Scott and Uber, even if they weren't overly consistent themselves on The Farm. The presumption with this team was that they were going to have to win games 10-8, but they are giving 11+ runs per games over the current six-game skid.

Aaron Fitt

12:53

It's a fair question. Seeing Volchko, Scott and Uber all improve after leaving Stanford is a little bit discouraging. There are some talented younger arms on that Stanford staff but they're gonna need to grow up in a hurry for this team to be competitive in the ACC this year. Right now it does feel like this pitching staff might be in for a long year... but that said, Stanford has lost a bunch of close games, and the pitching was better earlier. Perhaps it's best not to over-index on a rough weekend at Wake, a tough place to pitch. (I'm trying to be measured. But I admit I'm not overly optimistic about this Stanford club.)

Eric

12:55

B1G opening weekend. USC looks like a top ten caliber, Nebraska and Purdue looked good too. Any early surprises or statements made in the first week of conference play.

Kendall Rogers

12:55

I didn't have Washington winning that series in Bloomington, that's for sure. Our Burke Granger has remained steadfast that the Hoosiers would be OK. But, boy, the Huskies took it to them, winning the series finale, 9-2. The other series that caught my attention was actually outside of league play, and that was Maryland going on the road and taking two of three from Troy. That series could loom large RPI-wise, because I do think Troy eventually goes on a run. There's too much talent present with the Trojans not to, IMO.

Todd

12:57

What is a good start to SEC play look like for Kentucky in its first 3 series vs Bama, @ Miss, & @ LSU? What have you thought about their start to the season with a 14-2 mark in non-conference play? Go Cats

Aaron Fitt

12:57

I think Kentucky would have to feel pretty good about a 4-5 record over those three weekends. It's never easy to win an SEC road series. You'd hope Kentucky can win 2 of 3 at home and not get swept in the other two series -- and if they can steal one of those road series, they'll be ahead of the game. Personally, I'm really impressed by Kentucky's 14-2 start, was definitely worried about them after the Tyler Bell injury, but they weathered the storm. I think there's a ton of depth in that position player group and on the mound. Feels like a host type team to me. I'll be there for at least part of the series at Ole Miss, looking forward to getting eyes on both clubs.

GeoDawg

12:59

Man. There are really some stand out mid-majors this year. Southern Miss, Louisiana, Coastal, UTSA, and UCSB all come to mind. Do you think this is a result of talent retention due to NIL, paired with many of these teams having squads that have played together for a few years vs P5 teams having to piece themselves together with high talent transfers more regularly?

Kendall Rogers

12:59

I think it's a combination of a few factors. I think some of these teams are much older, and that helps. Southern Miss, for instance, is an incredibly old time. It's a recipe and formula for success as old as time itself. I also think programs have gotten very smart in finding ways to keep their better players around. I said this when NIL came down the pike, and I remain committed to this train of thought: Yes, some programs are going to lose their stars to the 'power schools', but some really, really good players at those schools also need somewhere to go. There's going to be continue to be a trickle down effect of sorts in college baseball.

Guest

1:01

Last week Aaron said we do not drop teams for winning weekend series, WVU did just that, why does it matter, no longer on top 25 scoreboard or top 25 article, how do you break your own rankings philosophy that has a big cost in coverage for a non acc/sec team?

Aaron Fitt

1:01

Well, I think what I said is that we very seldom drop teams that win their weekend series -- and frankly, we almost never drop a team out of the Top 25 after winning weeks. This was a weird case -- we had two teams that simply had to find a way into the rankings (UVa after winning a road series at top-10 UNC, and undefeated USC). Those teams simply forced our hand; we had one obvious spot open with Miami dropping its series. But we did not have a second obvious spot, so we had to make a tough decision to drop out WVU, which has a less impressive resumé than the other teams toward the back there, and did take a bad Friday loss to a 2-7 Ivy League team. It's not ideal, but it is justifiable. Also, I know Chase Meyer had not contributed much this year, but he was still the best arm on the entire staff, and his dismissal does change our long-term outlook on WVU just a bit. Merited a small adjustment downward. All that said—ideally we would have left the Mountaineers in the rankings. Early rankings can be messy.

DaAggies

1:03

Its hard to truly know where everybody stands exiting this non-conference stretch, but what teams are you confident that you have a good idea of who they are, good or bad?

Kendall Rogers

1:03

I'll pick a couple of teams -- one inside the Power Four and the other outside of the Power Four. I am pretty damn confident USM is very, very good. Yes, the Golden Eagles probably won't be able to play at 'this' level week in and week out, but that's an older lineup with a bunch of high-level hitters atop the lineup, while the rotation is stout with Allen-Harris-English + some big-time bullpen weapons. What's there not to like about USM right now?

On the power conference side, UCLA and Texas look like pretty sure bets. UCLA just has that look, and while Texas hasn't played great competition outside of single game against Coastal Carolina (which it dominated), the pitching staff continues to look sensational. Again, the Longhorns just have to hit a little bit this year, IMO, to have a high level of success.

goldeneglz

1:04

Southern Miss has always had quality arms that were nationally recognized. But in recent years, can you remember a Southern Miss team with as deep a pitching staff as what they have this year? Is this the missing link to making a CWS run?

Kendall Rogers

1:04

I hate to follow up with yet another USM question, but yes, this is the big distinction between this year's Golden Eagles and some of the ones in the past. The thing I really like about this USM pitching staff, particularly the bullpen, is that you have a lot of different looks. It's not just a cookie-cutter approach. Sunstrom is a slider specialist, Clark is a big-time arm, and Sivley is just a different look, too.

James

1:08

Who is going to win C-USA this year?

Kendall Rogers

1:08

James -- I would still probably lean Dallas Baptist, but I've got Jacksonville State top of mind. The Gamecocks have taken care of business on the weekend, and the fact they barely lost the Cincinnati series (they're really good) to start the season, has caught my attention even more. That's a team that looked pretty good on paper entering the season, too.

Rick

1:08

With the way Louisiana is playing right now, a lot of long-time fans feel like it's the best team we've had since 2014. There's a certain "it factor" they have that's hard to quantify. With that being said, if the Cajuns would've pulled off the sweep on the road at DBU, would we have seen them officially enter the Top 25? Would also love to know your thoughts on the Sun Belt as a whole and how the Cajuns fit into your postseason projections. Thanks for running the best site in College Baseball, you guys rock.

Aaron Fitt

1:08

Thanks for the kind words, Rick! I think we are all certainly impressed with what the Cajuns have done so far. As I've written and talked about on the pod a few times now, I love their freshman class, really exciting young core for them to build around, and they've hit the ground running. I think the pitching has really come together, and there's loads of athleticism in the lineup. Feels like a fun club, and at this point I'd probably put them right there with Coastal, fighting for that second spot behind Southern Miss in the Sun Belt. If we had more open spots this week, we likely would have ranked the Cajuns, with our without that Sunday win, but this week we had more deserving teams than we had spots.

FittsMagic

1:09

Dedeaux Field WILL host a regional in year 1 of De-Dos...Is USC's new stadium fully functioning and capable of entering a host bid?

Kendall Rogers

1:09

It appears to be. One of our readers posted some pictures on twitter a couple of weeks ago, and the grass looked immaculate and the stadium looked very good. Kudos to USC for doing a wonderful job on the stadium. I also believe our pals at Populous did that ballpark. Job well done!

David

1:10

Is Clemson for real? Or too early to tell? This weekend is huge

Aaron Fitt

1:10

I like Clemson's team quite a bit. It's maybe too early to tell HOW real they are, but the early signs are certainly encouraging. I feel like they're going to wind up being a regional host yet again, and then it's all just about peaking at the right time in June. Sharman's emergence feels like a major development for that club, really fortifying the rotation. Anyway, huge series vs. GT this weekend -- we'll have Mark Etheridge there for part of it, and Shotgun Spratling there for the rest of it.

B1G

1:12

UCLA is looking elite, but both Oregon and USC look like viable contenders. What's your confidence on a scale of 1-10 that UCLA wins the regular season conference title?

Aaron Fitt

1:12

Unbalanced schedules are complicating factors for these sorts of forecasts in mega-conferences, and I agree that USC and Oregon look like legit contenders. But also I absolutely think UCLA is legit-legit. So I'll call it an 8.

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