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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: March 9
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Poll Mechanics
1:12
Should we assume that SEC teams 11 thru 13 will find their way into the tournament again this year? We saw with the middling teams in the Big 12 last year that the committee just didn't bother parsing them, so they all got in at the expense of mid-majors like Troy. When no one in the third quartile of the SEC separates, the rubber stamp will presumably be well-inked and everyone should just take a deep breath right now, correct?
Kendall Rogers
1:12
I think you can just assume that 12-13 SEC teams will get in every single season at this juncture, barring somewhat of an odd year. But it also depends on the committee. I know the committee last year really wanted to chop off at least one more SEC team, but in the end, that team got into the Field of 64.
Rowan
1:13
What’s the realistic ceiling for this USC team? Omaha or is it too early to tell?
Kendall Rogers
1:13
If the Trojans continue to pitch this well, there's not really a limit. But I also wonder if pitching this ridiculously well is remotely sustainable? At any rate, seeing Sean Allen's pitching staff pitch like this is impressive. It's also awesome for Sean. His departure from Texas a few seasons ago was flat out bizarre.
Jason
1:14
Pretty awesome Top 25 ACC series brewing in Winston Salem this weekend between Wake and FSU. Morningstar/Levonas vs. Mendes/Beard feels like must watch matchups. What are you looking to learn this weekend about both teams and how do you see the series taking shape?
Aaron Fitt
1:14
I'll likely be there Saturday and Sunday (since I just saw Morningstar last week, I'll be elsewhere on Friday). Really exciting matchups there -- can't wait for Levonas vs. Beard, in particular. But I also want to get eyes on FSU's talented young hitters, Stuetzer and Paulino -- and emerging sophomore Noah Sheffield. Seeing how the young Wake power arms fare against the young FSU power bats will be intriguing.
Yinzer
1:17
Did Lorenzo Carrier just have the greatest week ever at the plate?
Kendall Rogers
1:17
That was something else, right? On a normal week, Cincinnati's Quinton Coats would be the no-doubt player of the week after hitting seven homers last week, but Carrier was outrageous at the plate. For those wondering, Pitt's Lorenzo Carrier entered the middle of Sunday's game against SJSU 14-for-16 in his last four games with a double, two triples, five homers and 22 RBIs. Yes, 22. He then hit another two-run home run for the Panthers. Bonkers. Pitt is looking pretty solid, BTW.
Scott
1:19
The Southland Conference looks strong once again this year. It's early but McNeese has a good win over LSU, Nicholls over Southern Miss, Lamar and UTRGV over Kansas, Northwestern State sweeping UT-Arlington who has beat TCU and Arkansas. Last year they were a 1 bid league but had 2 (Southeastern and UTRGV) on the first 4 out and arguably a third (Lamar) in that next 4 out category. What are your thoughts on the Southland being a 2 bid league this year?
Aaron Fitt
1:19
One encouraging sign for the Southland is that nobody in the league is worse than 7-9, so you don't have any albatrosses that struggled mightily in nonconference and then drag everybody else down in the RPI. But you also don't have any teams with a ton of separation from .500 in the positive direction; ideally for this to be a multi-bid league, multiple teams would have to get off to gaudier starts in nonconference to build a good RPI foundation heading into conference play. So a mixed bag, and as you point out, there are some nice wins early. But ultimately, I have a feeling it winds up as a one-bid league.
David
1:20
What are your impressions on A&M so far? Think they have the juice to finish the year as a top 8 seed?
Aaron Fitt
1:20
To me they feel more like a solid middle-of-the-pack SEC team that will compete to host or wind up as a safe regional No. 2 seed. I like their team, certainly, but I don't see it as a top-eight club.
Billy
1:24
At what point in the season do losses start to matter for the rankings? Is it only once conference play starts? I see a lot of losses in the Top 25 when historically that is not the case. That reads to me like the D1 staff is unwilling to concede some of these teams didn't meet their lofty preseason rankings.
Aaron Fitt
1:24
The only teams in the Top 25 with more than four losses are Coastal and TCU, both of which have fallen 10 spots from where they were in the preseason -- so it's just wrong to say "losses don't matter in the D1 rankings". They both had one losing weekend, and both tumbled as a result. But they have also both won their other three weekends, which has kept them in the rankings. And it's worth noting that both have also played considerably harder schedules than a bunch of teams with much gaudier records in the rankings, and that matters too. You get more leeway when you're facing good competition than when you're playing weak competition. Teams that started high but had multiple losing weekends have fallen out: see Louisville, No. 8 in the preseason, lost its first two series (including a home set vs. Michigan State) and wound up outside the Top 25 in two weeks.
Power Major
1:25
Does it feel like a lot of "what do we do after the top 3" when you guys sit down? The separation between UCLA/Texas/MSU and the rest of the pack feels enormous...
Kendall Rogers
1:25
I would disagree. I feel like Georgia Tech has very much looked the part already this season, and we all know Arkansas has the talent. I'd also say that Southern Miss isn't exactly way behind those teams either. I think this weekend is going to separate a lot of things for our staff when it comes to the rankings.
Adam
1:26
What do I need to feel about the Pirates?  They look good in spurts but I'm concerned about the consistency.
Aaron Fitt
1:26
I've been a bit surprised by ECU's inconsistency, to be honest. I was really buying this team as a vintage ECU team that would make a run at hosting, and so far it feels like that projection might have been too aggressive. That said -- I still really like the pitching, and I still really like the lineup core. And I'm still buying a major run in conference play. But there are some guys who need to get going.
Will
1:27
What are we thinking about Dallas baptist this year?
Kendall Rogers
1:27
Will -- The Patriots certainly need to get better on the mound. We had this discussion on our podcast last week, but DBU historically has a staff loaded with premium arms. It feels like this staff has solid arms, but not those typical premium arms, starting with much of the weekend rotation. Right now, you have three weekend starters with ERAs of 4.91, 6.10 and 9.00 -- that's a pretty good indicator that things aren't going to go your way. With that said, it would be foolish to totally discount DBU on March 9.
Clayton
1:29
Preseason Pitt was picked to finish in the bottom of the ACC this year. Has their hot 12-2 start to the season, given you guys any thoughts that maybe they could finish towards the middle of the ACC and make the NCAA tournament for the first time in 31 years?
Aaron Fitt
1:29
Yes, Pitt has my attention! Lorenzo Carrier going into full-on beat mode is certainly notable, because he's always had big raw talent, it's always just been a matter of putting it all together. If he has figured it out, what a game changer for Pitt. The level of competition early on hasn't been super strong, but it's still a very encouraging start. Very eager to see how these Panthers fare in ACC play.
Jack
1:29
What does Texas Tech need to do in the big 12 to make the tournament? Any chance they have it in them?
Kendall Rogers
1:29
After a pretty poor showing in the one weekend the Red Raiders played decent competition, I feel like they'll need to finish in the top half of the league, for sure, to even have a fighting chance. That two-game midweek set is actually pretty important for Tech -- shockingly, it's probably more important for the Red Raiders than it is the Roadrunners.
Eric Simmons
1:30
Can UTSA host a Regional if they dominate the American? I think it's very possible
Kendall Rogers
1:30
They can't host at their home field. Maybe at the Missions Ballpark if it's available?
Aaron Fitt
1:30
OK gang, that's all for me today. See you next week!
Vince
1:31
Still early... but does the Sun Belt get back to a 3 or 4 bid league this year? Felt like last year should've been 3, but Troy got left out even after respecting the conference handing then 2 host sites.
Kendall Rogers
1:31
TBD. I definitely really like the chances of the league being a three-bid league with USM, Louisiana and Coastal Carolina. Outside of those teams, South Al, Texas State and Arkansas State all look to be the best positioned club. I've gotten good reports on the Bobcats, so curious to see how they do in league play.
GeoDawg
1:33
I know it doesn't mean much at this point but, with SEC rpi's pretty low overall compared to previous years (3 teams in the 100s and 1 in the 200s) do you see them having fewer hosts than we've seen recently? Especially considering LSU (137) and Vandy (225) have the talent to make runs and win games, bringing other conference rpi's down as theirs rise.
Kendall Rogers
1:33
Both of those teams are really going to have impress in league play to have an RPI in the hosting range. With that said, I'd be careful looking at any RPIs right now. There's a reason we don't release RPI figures until about March 16. That's when the figures at least start getting a little bit more accurate.
cool 1
Andrew
1:38
Louisiana off to a hot start, and they're pitching and playing defensively the best they have since 2016, also the last time they hosted. They've done themselves a favor in the non-con scheduling tough teams that will get wins, and they've also won a majority of those games. Let's say they go 20-10 in conference play, that'll put them right around the 40 win mark. Could that be enough to get them in host discussions? Do you think they'd have to win at least one of the USM/Coastal series?
cool 1
Kendall Rogers
1:38
Andrew -- It's too early to predict what someone's RPI will do down the road, but if you go 20-10 in that league, you're in a pretty good spot. By comparison, in 2024, Southern Miss went 20-10 in the league and finished 27 in the RPI. So, yes, within range for sure.
James
1:41
Curious your guys’ opinion on the sweet spot scheduling model for midmajors to get an at large. Troy was solid against a light schedule last year and was left out for not enough meat on the bone. This year, they scheduled tougher but haven’t been successful enough. Of course they have to play better but how do you tightrope a good schedule without killing yourself? Obviously USM, ECU, and others have a good system but curious what you guys think.
Kendall Rogers
1:41
James -- I always tell mid-major coaches to go schedule a really solid power conference program for a series (if you can), or go play in a tournament like USM did in Round Rock. Then, go look at historical trends and find mid-to-lower majors who have a history of winning since the RPI formula revolves around winning percentage. Troy's issue last year wasn't what it did earlier in the season, it was that it tanked the last couple of weeks of the season.
Guest
1:43
Looking at the rankings this week, it appears that pre season expectations and rankings are carrying the torch. This is clear by looking at LSU. Their NC SOS is low, and they lost 3-4. Are these rankings based on merit? Or are they your expectations on how the rest of the season will play out?
Kendall Rogers
1:43
LSU definitely had an atrocious week, and fell nine spots, accordingly. With that said, LSU looked very good in Jacksonville against at least two quality teams, IMO, in Notre Dame and UCF. Both of those teams -- most certainly ND -- will be in the mix for a postseason berth. That's helping LSU. But there's zero doubt that something has to budge this weekend for the Tigers. If they go to Nashville and look lifeless like they did this past weekend, they should 100% be out of the rankings. But this past weekend has to be a wakeup call. They are on notice.
Andrew
1:54
How about the job Mike Silva is doing at ASU? They lost a tough series this weekend, but that turnaround has been swift. Could he be a hot name in coaching searches this offseason?
Kendall Rogers
1:54
Yeah, that was a tough series loss, but I'm still buying stock. I was talking to one of Silva's former players a couple of weeks ago about his secret sauce, and he just said he's an incredible baseball mind and very honest with his players. He said there is 0% fake in his personality. Kids these days respond very well to that.
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