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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 13
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Aaron Fitt
2:06
Hello gang, hope you all had a great weekend. Let's dive in!
Pablo
2:10
Where do you see K State, KU and Texas Tech?  Love the content!
Kendall Rogers
2:10
Kansas State in, Kansas out, Texas Tech out. I don't really see Texas Tech's pathway at all without winning the Big 12 tournament. Rapidly declining RPI and very poor finish to league play.
CHANDLER
2:11
How about them Huskers and their resiliency to win games 2 and 3 this weekend after that ridiculous 9th inning collapse in game 1? The B1G title race is shaping up to be a fun one going into this last weekend of conference play with 4 teams still in the running
Aaron Fitt
2:11
Yeah, super-impressed with Nebraska's performance this weekend. The Hoosiers have been playing great ball lately, and I thought they had a real chance to go in there and win that series, but the Huskers just stayed the course, got some great pitching from Mason  McConnaughey to stabilize the series on Saturday, and then got more strong pitching on Sunday. That response showed me a lot after the way Friday played out. Feel great about where Nebraska is heading into the stretch run.
laughing 2 cool 1
Alex C.
2:12
What does Arizona need to do to host a Regional? How surprising is it that this team is winning the final Pac-12 regular season?
Kendall Rogers
2:12
Alex -- that coaching staff has done a terrific job this season. I wrote about this in today's Rogers Rewind, but Arizona most definitely has a pathway right now to hosting. Its RPI is at 26 and it hosts Oregon State this weekend. Win the regular season title and this series, and I think the Wildcats will have put themselves in the Top 16 for sure barring some terribly ugly showing in the conference tourney.
Will Hefton
2:13
Do you think DBU has any chance of hosting?
Aaron Fitt
2:13
Sure. Now that DBU has moved into a tie atop the CUSA standings, I think their chances have gotten a lot better. I think if they can win the regular-season outright, that would be a huge boost to their hopes, and finding a way to climb inside the top 20 in the RPI (currently No. 21) would be another big boost. But the combination of a regular-season title plus an RPI in the teens plus a decent run in the CUSA tournament would certainly give them a realistic hosting shot.
Andrew
2:13
Is Louisiana safe after the weekend sweep over Georgia Southern? Gotta figure just avoid a sweep against South AL at home and they’re fine.
Kendall Rogers
2:13
Cajuns are FINALLY moving in the RPI. It seems like they've been stagnant for weeks. 39 RPI and they've clinched at least a tie for the regular season title sitting three games up on Southern Miss. I think UL is locked into the NCAA tourney at this point.
Eric Simmons
2:14
I think if Cincinnati goes 3-1 this week with a series win over Oklahoma I think that could get them into the NCAA Tournament what do you think?
Aaron Fitt
2:14
Hi Eric -- yes, I think if Cincinnati wins that Oklahoma series, the Bearcats will be in. Simple as that. So impressed with Jordan Bischel's club in his first year at the helm -- but can't say I'm shocked. The dude can freakin' coach.
Chapel Hill Fred
2:17
Thoughts on the job Scott Forbes has done this year? Pitching was a major issue last season and despite the injuries to Jake Knapp and Folger Boaz, Carolina fields the best team ERA in the ACC and is 14th nationally. Also, the conference road schedule has been brutal and if you count the ECU traveling series, every series against ranked opponents has been away from home. And yet, 20 ACC wins and #5 RPI. Is Forbes ACC COY and are they a slam dunk Top 8?
Aaron Fitt
2:17
Fred -- that is very well said. I don't know if the nation as a whole has recognized how good of a season UNC has had, and how great of a coaching job Scott Forbes has done, because they have lost four weekend series... but they have not been swept, and they've been largely dominant aside from those four series losses. And their scoring margin this year is actually better than their scoring margin in any of their previous top-eight seed campaigns during the 64-team era, which tells me that this team is sneaky-elite. And when you factor in that they lost TWO Friday starters to season-ending injuries in Knapp and then Boaz, it's really incredible what they've done.
ChampstoChumps
2:18
LSU fan - just wondering is 13 Regular Season conference wins an absolute floor for having a shot at making the tournament or can you have 12 and pick up a couple in Hoover and still have hope?  I
Kendall Rogers
2:18
For me, it's getting to the 13 win mark including Hoover. For instance, if LSU won two this weekend and won its opening game against whomever in Hoover, I think the Tigers would probably be in the field. The issue for those SEC teams right now is that Vandy, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida are all in comparable range conference record wise and all of those teams aren't getting in the field imo.
Guest
2:19
OU sure seems to get a lot of credit for sweeping the bottom of the Big 12 - is it concerning that they didn't win a series against any projected 2 seeds this year? Bullpen is beyond suspect.
Aaron Fitt
2:19
Yeah that's a fair critique -- their best series win really was against Kansas State, and they lost the other good series they've played. That would give me pause when assessing OU's postseason outlook. But regardless, winning the Big 12 regular-season title with a weekend still to play should matter, and they have done it.
Bob
2:19
What does Coastal Carolina need to do in order to secure a spot in a Regional? Pretty crazy over the course of two weeks they go from hosting a regional to maybe missing one…
Kendall Rogers
2:19
Win the Marshall series on the road this weekend and play decently well in the conference tournament, and I think Coastal limps its way into the field. The Gary Gilmore effect matters, too, whether we agree with it or not. Also - Matt Hogue is the committee chairman. I think the Chants are going to have some wiggle room.
Jim Bowie
2:21
what does the probability of 5 SBC teams making the postseason look like?
Kendall Rogers
2:21
Jim -- I think the league is going to be a four-bid league. Feel pretty good about Louisiana, Southern Miss and Troy -- and I think one of James Madison/Coastal Carolina gets into the field at this point. I don't think both do.
Hog Fan
2:24
Other than Hagen Smith, Arkansas's starting pitching has fallen off a cliff the past two weeks, with the main understudies either injured (Fisher) or ineffective (Bybee). Combined with weak-to-mediocre hitting, is this team doomed in the postseason?
Aaron Fitt
2:24
I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little bit concerned, considering the reason I have stubbornly clung to Arkansas as my national title pick is because I believed so much in the Smith-Tygart-Molina trio as being a major tier above everybody else's starting pitching. But I'm going to remain stubborn. There's too much talent (and experience) with that group, and they've got a couple more weeks to get it sorted. I'm keeping the faith.
Benton
2:24
Is Arkansas a lock for a national seed? Maybe need one with vs A&M?
Kendall Rogers
2:24
Benton -- I still think Arkansas and A&M are in excellent shape. I think ECU drops out this week, and I think Georgia takes its spot. But what other true top eight contenders are there right now? Wake Forest would be about it, and I think it's more likely they'd knock out FSU than supplant the Hogs or Aggies.
Jason
2:26
What does Oklahoma State need to do the next 3 weeks to feel comfortable in a host position?
Aaron Fitt
2:26
I think if they can win two out of three at Houston this week to finish 19-10 in the Big 12, I will really like their chances heading into the conference tourney. Then it's probably a matter of winning two games at Globe Life (and even one win there could be enough, depending on how things shake out).
cool 2
Eric Simmons
2:26
Can San Diego host a regional if they win the WCC Tournament? I think they have a really good chance
Kendall Rogers
2:26
Eric -- never say never, especially when the Toreros have an RPI of 25, but they would be behind a few teams in the pecking order for now. Still, hell of a year so far for Brock Ungricht's club. He has done a fantastic job there in short order.
Guest
2:27
Just how much should I panic if my Aggies K 15 times against Hagen Smith this week?  Does that say more about Hagen? or more about the Aggies recent swing & miss trouble?
Kendall Rogers
2:27
Guest -- A&M's offense, especially at the top, has definitely been in a funk the last couple of weeks. They're almost being overly patient at times, which is causing them to get down early in counts, and causes them to chase some pitches. I'm fascinated to see how they look at Arkansas' pitching staff this weekend. I tend to think they'll rise up at home in this situation, but we shall see.
Danielle
2:29
What does FSU need to do be a regional and super regional host in the NCAA tournament?
Aaron Fitt
2:29
Even despite losing the Pitt series this past weekend, I still like FSU's body of work. I think if the Noles take two of three at home vs. GT this weekend, they probably wind up as a top-eight seed. As long as they don't get swept this weekend, they probably host.
FittsMagic
2:29
Great stuff this spring! Do you guys have any idea what the Oregon St. & Wazzu media rights will look like? Will they still be tied to the Pac-12 network or will we finally get a real stream of Beaver baseball on ESPN next season? (It feels like this would tie into recruiting as well)
Aaron Fitt
2:29
Hello friend! This is a wonderful question, and I have no idea what the answer is, but it's a thought provoking question so I thought I would respond to put it out into the ether. If anybody has any idea of the answer, please let me know because I am curious!
MB
2:31
Does GT need to win its pool in Charlotte to feel comfortable? To me, I believe the RPI is being drug by 1 or 2 non con series—other metrics are tourney worthy.
Aaron Fitt
2:31
That RPI is a  bit concerning, sure, but if they can at least win one game in Tallahassee this weekend, I still really like their chances to get a bid, even if they don't win their pool in Charlotte. 15-15 in the regular-season followed by 1-1 in pool play should be enough. They've played good ball in the second half of the season, and that should matter.
Wesley Buschang
2:33
If Oregon State wins 2/3 in Arizona what is the likely hood of a top 8 national seed. Additionally if OSU only wins one this weekend but reaches Pac12 championship game is that enough to host?
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