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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 20
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Kendall Rogers
1:22
Eric -- We would have Florida in right now. The Gators have OK metrics in the Top 100 range and possess a solid RPI. Obviously losing to A&M tomorrow would complicate things, but UF is likely in as of right now. Sully and the Gators will be sweating out those stolen bids throughout the week, though.;
Cody
1:23
Why is Tennessee still not ranked in the top 25? The resume screams top 25, and yet we hear they are a bubble team. RPI-11, SOS-5, and a record of 38-18.
Aaron Fitt
1:23
They're definitely not a bubble team anymore — that's an ironclad lock as a No. 2 seed in a regional. And they definitely have a Top 25 case too; probably No. 26 on our board right now. But it is still a losing SEC record, so we chose to reward a couple top-25 RPI teams that won their regular season championships instead.
Rusvegas
1:24
Louisiana Tech sitting at 53 in the RPI. What do they need to do to give themselves a chance short of winning conference tournament
Kendall Rogers
1:24
Louisiana Tech -- Right now, the thing that holds La Tech back is the conference record and the distance behind FAU and Southern Miss in the conference standings. That's a crutch right now. However, La Tech has the ability to rectify that at the C-USA tournament. I do think Tech is one of those teams that'll rate well with the RAC.
Joe LeCates
1:26
Fittsy, more of a prospect q; in following that Cal/ASU series it made me wonder, do Torkelson and Vaughn essentially profile the exact same at the next level? Vaughn a little better hit tool, Torkelson a bit more raw power as the difference?
Aaron Fitt
1:26
That's a pretty good call, Joe. Although don't sell Vaughn's power short -- he's got enormous juice too. I think the power is about a push, and Vaughn gets a tiny edge in the hit tool, and Vaughn is a better defender. But essentially it's the same profile, yes.
Corey
1:26
Do you feel that arkansas will still be a national seed after losing on the road at a&m, or does it need a couple of games in Hoover to solidify its seed?
Kendall Rogers
1:26
Corey -- I think Arkansas could leave its equipment at home and still be a Top 8 seed next week. I would say the final spot in the Top 8 is down to teams like ECU/Georgia Tech/Oklahoma State with Tech/ECU ahead in the race.
Aaron Fitt
1:30
To clarify here, I think Kendall's talking about the last two spots. Right now I'd have Texas Tech and Georgia Tech as the last two teams, behind a top six of UCLA, Vandy, Miss State, Arkansas, Georgia and Louisville.
Kevin
1:27
Did USM just choke away their at large chances these last two weeks?
Kendall Rogers
1:27
Kevin -- Southern Miss will need to do some serious damage in the C-USA tournament. The Golden Eagles don't have overly impressive metrics and the RPI is well into the 50s, which typically is a doomsday scenario for C-USA teams. USM just has very little meat on its resume.
seeingidawg
1:29
How do you see the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Tourney this week ?  could 0-2  hurt the national seed?  The bats are coming around...
Aaron Fitt
1:29
I think Georgia has a chance to make a real run. Their pitching is so good... they might have the three hardest-throwing starting pitchers in the entire SEC with Hancock, Locey and Wilcox. And it was very encouraging to see them bash Alabama the way they did this weekend, you're right about the bats getting hot at the right time (albeit against lesser pitching this weekend). I've always maintained that Georgia's lineup is better  than people give it credit for -- I really like the fact that they have a bunch of seasoned, gritty veterans who grind out quality at-bats up and down the lineup. Really think this Georgia team could win it all; might even put them in my top tier of contenders with UCLA, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. (even ahead of Arkansas, for me).
Adam
1:32
With the Canes splitting the last four games, did they do enough to get a Regional Host bid? Or do they have to at least either get to the semis or go 1-1 to cement their bid?
Aaron Fitt
1:32
I'd like to see them go 1-1 in Durham to lock it up, because there's a lot of competition for those last four hosting spots, and Miami's resumé has some warts (particularly that 5-10 mark against the top 50). It's not easy to separate those last 6-8 teams for the final four spots.
Eric Simmons
1:32
If Arizona sweeps Washington State are they in the NCAA Tournament? I think they are!
Kendall Rogers
1:32
Eric -- The Wildcats are still short for us. Arizona has certainly improved its RPI and is hot. However, the Wildcats are just 3-16 vs. RPI Top 50 and 15-18 vs. RPI Top 100. Those just aren't regional worthy marks at the moment and a series against Washington State won't help that situation. There's a chance thy get in should there basically be no stolen bids, but that's tough to ask or expect.
JP
1:35
Does Pierce make staff changes after the last-place finish?
Kendall Rogers
1:35
JP --- I do not think David Pierce will make any changes at the moment, but we have our ear to the ground on that one. I do think Texas will need to show some serious improvement next season, however. UT should be stout on the mound, but I still think the offense will be a concern unless some of the incoming players are big-time hitters. Bizarre and disappointing season for the Longhorns, that's for sure.
Billy G.
1:37
I don’t understand how Arkansas stays above Georgia in the rankings given they have a weaker overall record, a weaker conference record, a weaker record in weekend series, and a weaker RPI?
Aaron Fitt
1:37
We value high-end series wins, and Arkansas has more of them. Georgia has a marquee series win over Vanderbilt, 2/3 vs. LSU, a sweep of suddenly bubble-dwelling Missouri, a sweep of bubble-dwelling Florida, and 2/3 vs. Auburn. Arkansas has a marquee sweep of Mississippi State, a sweep of Tennessee, a sweep of Missouri, 2/3 at Auburn and 2/3 vs. LSU. So the sweeps of MSU and Tennessee are the difference, helping to explain why Arkansas is 12-6 vs. the top 25, while Georgia is 11-10. We're splitting hairs here -- they've both elite, and it doesn't really matter how you order them.
Bdevil Bob
1:39
What does Duke need to do in the ACC Tournament to make it into the field of 64?
Aaron Fitt
1:39
It depends on the size of the bubble -- right now we have Duke in rather comfortably, not even one of our last five teams in, because the bubble is so weak. If that continues to be the case, I think a 1-1 showing in the ACC tourney will get the Devils in. But 0-2 would probably put them behind the 8-ball, considering they've lost 7 of their last 9 games, and that would make it 9 of their last 11. Momentum matters too.
Garth Brooks
1:40
Who is your SEC coach of the year?
Aaron Fitt
1:40
I think I have to go with Tony Vitello. Tennessee hasn't made a regional since 2005, and he's ending that drought this year. Just making the SEC tournament has been a major challenge for this program over the last decade. What he's done in short order with the Vols is very loud.
Jim
1:40
Does Texas State have to win the Sun Belt conference to qualify or have they’ve done enough to get in regardless?
Kendall Rogers
1:40
With the way the bubble is right now, I think Texas State would get in no matter what if the season ended today. However, the Bobcats need to avoid stinking it up at the Sun Belt tourney. Don't give the committee a reason to leave you out. I do think Texas State passes the eyeball test -- that's a really solid team, IMO.
Matt-a-Dore
1:41
Kendall, Aaron, as always, love your coverage of the sport we love. This may just be self-indulgent, but even if my VandyBoys go 2-and-done in the SEC tourney, you think we still hold onto a 1 or 2 seed in NCAAs?
Aaron Fitt
1:41
Yeah, I think they'd be the 2 seed based on that 23-7 regular-season showing in the SEC. That's really hard to do -- they won the overall regular-season race by two games, and that league is loaded. All the metrics are there for them, too. Lock 'em in as the 2.
Cy
1:41
Should Mississippi State be a lock for a top 8 seed no matter what happens in the SEC tournament?
Kendall Rogers
1:41
Yes. Put it on the board. Mississippi State is a slam dunk Top 8 right now. Those guys or Oklahoma State might be the hottest team in the country at the moment.
Rex in Raleigh
1:43
Thanks for the great work you guys produce. Does the committee seed the No. 2 seeds like they do the 1s 1-16? For instance, if NCSU is one of the last 1-2 hosts, would it be reasonable to expect a top-20 club like Ole Miss or A&M/LSU that just missed a host to be sent to Raleigh? Or is the seeding still more geographically based?
Kendall Rogers
1:43
Rex -- I do think they try to do that at times, but for the most part, it's all about geography for the most part outside of the No. 1 seeds if there's a good fit.
Mike
1:44
Seems unlikely that OSU will host a Super, should they advanced that far. They really could have used another win at Stanford. What a huge "none game" that cancelled middle game might turn out to be. Assuming they can win their last series against USC, they should host a Regional - do you see it that way too? Thanks.
Aaron Fitt
1:44
The Pac-12 really dropped the ball in a huge way by not allowing Stanford and Oregon State to play a doubleheader on Friday, to accommodate the Pac-12 Network. But the team that might wind up getting screwed the most is UCLA, because if the Bruins only win 2 of 3 at Oregon this weekend, then either OSU or Stanford can pass them in percentage points by winning 2 of 3 this weekend. And as I understand it, that would make one of those teams the conference champion (I'll try to get confirmation that the winning percentage is the ultimate factor), even though UCLA beat both of those teams head-to-head. That's stupid. Anyway, yes, Oregon State is in fine shape to host a regional regardless, and if it can manage to win the Pac, it could still sneak up into that top 8 discussion, although probably will fall short.
Tech fan
1:45
Do you think GT has a actual chance to win the World Series.
Aaron Fitt
1:45
I'm skeptical that Tech has the arms to win the whole enchilada. But if those bats stay hot through the month of June, look out. They can definitely do some damage.
Jeffrey
1:45
Does DBU have a chance at hosting a regional?
Kendall Rogers
1:45
Jeffrey -- the RPI is in striking distance at 24, and should the Patriots roll through the Missouri Valley tournament, along with teams like A&M/LSU/UCSB scuffling over the next week, that could open the door for a team like DBU. DBU has nine wins vs. RPI Top 50, which is a pretty solid mark for MVC clubs. I would say they aren't going to host right now, but there's potential there if a few things break their way.
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