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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 24
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Aaron Fitt
12:02
Hey everybody, welcome to the last regular-season chat of the year. Let's dive in!
party 1
scribbler
12:05
How is Arkansas' pitching depth assuming Pallette is unable to return?
Kendall Rogers
12:05
The Hogs still have plenty of depth, but I think Dave Van Horn had the right idea extending Jaxon Wiggins a couple of innings more against Florida than he'd usually go. Wiggins has premium stuff and I think he might just be the answer if he can get 4-6 innings without running into major issues. Fortunately for Arkansas, it has a ton of quality arms.
Bobby
12:05
Do you see DBU coach Dan Heefner as a potential fit at Texas A&M ?
Kendall Rogers
12:05
I think Heef is an incredible coach and would do very well at A&M, but the list I published is the list A&M will be working from, per sources.
Guest
12:06
Does Arkansas have any weakness?
Aaron Fitt
12:06
Well sure, I think the fact that Arkansas has only one starting pitcher who consistently goes deep into games is a weakness -- it's just that this team has proven that weakness can be overcome. I mean in a perfect world, you'd obviously rather have three horses that can pitch you into the sixth, seventh or eighth inning, but this Arkansas staff just isn't built that way. Having Kevin Kopps at the back end just takes so much strain off that pitching staff, and there are other good supporting pieces in the bullpen led by Caden Monke, and the offense and defense are elite.
TOAST
12:07
Serious question. At this point in the season, are your rankings based on their postseason position for seeding, or based on the actual 25 best teams in the country, in that order?
Aaron Fitt
12:07
They're really not based on postseason seeding, as you will see if you compare the projections with the Top 25. Just an obvious example, we've got Texas No. 2 in the rankings but still projected as the No. 3 national seed behind Vandy (although personally I argued this week that Texas should be the No. 2 national seed now that it has won the Big 12 regular-season title). Anyway -- there are still certain "poll dynamics" at work in the Top 25 that are not factors in our postseason projections.
JEL
12:09
Is Gonzaga still in the realistic hunt to host a Spokane regional?  Mid-week loss to Oregon and the inability to sweep San Francisco at Patterson result in less than favorable optics. Zags not liking opponents wearing green and gold....
Aaron Fitt
12:09
Oh they're absolutely still right in the thick of that hosting race. There are only 20 teams in the hunt, and several of them did not help their cause this weekend (Pitt is out of it now as far as I'm concerned, while South Carolina and La Tech had losing weekends, and Southern Miss was idle). I still think Gonzaga hosts if it wins this San Diego series.
Krey
12:10
Other than game #1 in the Regionals, what is the advantage of being a 2-seed over a 3-seed?
Aaron Fitt
12:10
Well that's it, it's just a matter of getting a more favorable matchup in the first game, theoretically at least. And also being the home team in that matchup.
Jack Krauel
12:10
Who are the 4 predetermined host sites that are not hosting in your opinion as of today?
Kendall Rogers
12:10
Jack -- I think Pittsburgh is very much off the board. No shot they host at this point. I would have Southern Miss and La Tech out but within striking distance, South Carolina very close, and Charlotte as the leader ... for now. C-USA tourney and SC's road in Hoover will matter here, IMO.
Coach Ray
12:11
Coach Childress should be thanked over and over for what he did in College Station. He grew that program into a an absolute POWER. Question: when can we expect to see the coaching carousel pick up even more? Also, how vital is it for AD's to find quick replacements given the new transfer rule?
Kendall Rogers
12:11
Coach Ray -- Rob did a strong job at A&M, but the thing I like about him even more is that he's a terrific person and I was lucky enough to have an outstanding relationship with him. I consider him a friend in the industry. WTS -- the coaching carousel has a chance to go off the rails this summer. Fair warning. And you bring up a good point on the transfer rule with the July 1 declaration date. You'd think that would create some definite urgency.
cowtownBill
12:12
I'm going to assume the Frogs can get their act together and have a good week at the Big 12 tournament. How many wins would it take for TCU to still have a good shot at a national seed?
Aaron Fitt
12:12
Heck, they did still finish three games ahead of Texas Tech -- it's not like they need to run the table here. Kinda feels to me like if they can win two or three games, and in particular if they can have a better showing than Tech this week, then maybe they get that eighth spot over Tech. The other team to watch here is Stanford, which I argued might be more deserving of a top eight seed than either TCU or Tech (Mark and Kendall did not agree, but it's close). Feels like those three teams are competing for one top-eight seed, in my mind.
cool 2
TOAST
12:13
Is LSU in regardless is they win their opeing game in the tourney? I feel like they are safe if not but Georgia, Bama, and UK need at least 2 wins. Bama may need 3.
Kendall Rogers
12:13
TOAST -- I actually do feel like LSU is in no matter what happens with the Georgia game. LSU actually has played pretty decent down the stretch and it played a very difficult SEC schedule with a rather young team in some regards. A win over Georgia would be icing on the cake for me, though.
cool 1
Aaron Fitt
12:17
I'm not quite as convinced LSU is safe it it loses that game. SEC teams that go 13-18 (counting a play-in game loss) have a very dicey track record on the bubble -- there have been instances where they get in (see Florida in 2019), but I think they usually get left out. LSU has other things going for it, and I definitely have them higher on my ladder than a bunch of other bubble teams that are in our field this week -- but if a bunch of those mid-major teams that dominated their regular seasons wind up not winning auto bids, they're going to snatch up those at-large spots and make that bubble tighter. LSU probably will get in, but it's not a lock yet for me if it loses the play-in game.
cool 1
TOAST
12:18
How secure is Mississippi State with a national seed at #8? Do they need to win at least one game to feel completely safe?
Kendall Rogers
12:18
TOAST -- I feel like Mississippi State is pretty much a lock to be a top-eight national seed at this point with 20 wins in the SEC, a strong RPI and a strong overall resume. For me, the final spot comes down to Stanford, Oregon, Texas Tech, TCU, East Carolina, etc....
Red Raider Coming at ya
12:20
At what point do you finally move Tech past TCU. I know they shared the Big 12 title (not as good as being sole 1st place IMO) and have an RPI of 7 vs 8 for Tech? But they have lost 3 straight series with back to back series losses coming against inferior opponents
Kendall Rogers
12:20
Spoiler alert: You will see Texas Tech ahead of TCU in our top eight seed pecking order a little later today in our Field of 64. The Red Raiders are playing better. And yes, TCU finished a couple of games ahead of Tech in the league standings, but Tech still has the H2H and has played much better down the stretch.
Sam
12:20
If ECU wins the AAC tournament do you think they would be in the running for the last national seed spot? Who do you guys think will be the 2 seed in Greenville? Will it be one of SC, NC State, Charlotte or ODU?
Aaron Fitt
12:20
Yeah I do -- ECU is the other team in that mix for the last top-eight spot along with Stanford, TCU and Texas Tech. We'll see how all four of those teams do in the final week; right now I don't think there's much separating any of them from each other. As for the 2-seed, those feel like the candidates. I could see ODU as the 2 and maybe an ACC bubble team as the 3 (UVa? Duke?).
Guest
12:23
Does ODU have a chance to be a traveling one seed after sweeping LA Tech on the road?Thanks for answering all of the great questions.
Aaron Fitt
12:23
I actually brought this up on the Nerdcast last night: could ODU be a 1-seed in Columbia, for instance? I suspect not -- if the committee deems the Gamecocks are worthy of hosting, they'll probably just host as the 1 seed. But it's worth considering; ODU is actually stronger in the RPI than SC and has a much better record against the top 50 (ODU is 13-6, SD is 11-17). But ODU also finished two games behind Charlotte, which might be enough to keep them out of the top 16 seeds.
cool 1
Guest
12:25
Does Duke have to win a game or two in Charlotte to feel comfortable making the tournament?
Aaron Fitt
12:25
I think Duke is in a similar position to LSU: right now they're in pretty darn good shape, higher on our ladder than other bubble teams like Louisville and Pittsburgh, but if the bids start disappearing and the bubble shrinks, they'll be sweating. They could definitely use another win or two to firm up their footing. But the fact that Duke has managed to surge its way into decent at-large position over the last two weeks is pretty incredible.
cool 1
Guest
12:26
Hey guys - which school should be most worried of losing a coach to the opening in College Station?
Kendall Rogers
12:26
Guest -- I'm not sure about worried, but I can tell you that the Aggies haver a very very legitimate shot to land all four of those candidates -- Tadlock, Schlossnagle, Vitello and Godwin. Strangely enough, Godwin is the one that's interesting to me because he's such a loyal ECU guy ... I just wonder if he'd make that move -- but you never know. There's a lot going on behind the scenes with this one. Stay tuned, and I'll keep everyone posted.
West
12:26
Your comments that LA Tech needs to outperform Charlotte and USM in the tourney. Can you expand on that? Win more games, win higher caliber games, head to head, win it all?
Aaron Fitt
12:26
I suppose I was thinking "win more games" -- ie go deeper into the tournament. But it's probably a mismash of all those things you mentioned. It just feels like all three of those teams are bunched very tightly together, and this week should help the committee find some way to separate them.
H-town Baller
12:27
Tough year for Houston college baseball. Do you see Rice and Houston making head coaching changes? Any names to look out for?
Kendall Rogers
12:27
HTown -- I've been told that Houston is not making a coaching change. That was rumored for a while, but sources are adamant that will not be the case. The feeling at Rice a while back was that Bragga would get one more year -- but we will see what Joe Karlgaard decides. Joe is a strong candidate for the Northwestern AD job, so he might be a little preoccupied at the moment.
JEL
12:29
UC Irvine is doing what it has to do in closing out Big West slate. Final weekend at home hosting Fullerton (Titans precipitous fall is a story in and of itself).  Under what circumstances do you see Santa Barbara making the field of 64?
Aaron Fitt
12:29
I'll tell you that we've got the Gauchos back in our field this week after sweeping Riverside -- largely because other bubble teams really fell on their faces. But UCSB is now 25-11 in the Big West, which is pretty loud, with a No. 56 RPI. I still don't like their lack of quality wins (2-9 top 50 is ugly), but with so many other bubble teams fading, I think UCSB is actually in good shape right now. At least split those last four games against Bakersfield and I think the Gauchos get in.
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