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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 5
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Aaron Fitt
12:08
Hey everybody, and a happy Cinco de Mayo to you. Let's get after it.
ACC
12:11
Could the ACC end up with three top-8 seeds on Selection Monday? FSU and UNC appear to be in strong position, with Clemson right there as well, although with only 5 Quad-1 wins to date.
Aaron Fitt
12:11
I think three is certainly attainable for the ACC, though two is probably more likely. UNC still has to travel to FSU, so one of those teams will have to lose that series; assuming neither gets swept, both could probably stay in that top 8 after that weekend, but the loser might also find itself with work to do in the conference tourney. And certainly Clemson needs to bolster its resumé a bit, now that it is tied for 6th in the standings. I'm guessing two of those three wind up in the top 8, but could also envision all 3 getting there. I was talking about NC State as a top 8 candidate last week, but that notion now appears to be cooked, with the Wolfpack down at 36 in the RPI -- just too far to go there, I think.
Timothy (WV)
12:17
WVU has Only Lost One Series this season, and West Virginia is now up to #12 in your new Poll, so what do they need to do to Lock up hosting a Regional in Morgantown, and do they have any Shot at a Top 8 National Seed?
Aaron Fitt
12:17
I think the Mountaineers are in great shape to host a regional, even with that RPI down at No. 20. If they keep on winning every series down the stretch, that RPI should climb back up at least into the top 15, and I think in that scenario, with a gaudy overall record and winning the regular-season title in dominant fashion, they could certainly snag a top-8 spot, even if their RPI is outside the top 8 and their Q1 record is a little light. The consistent excellence is loud.
cool 3
pboy503
12:20
Is there any chance Oregon and Oregon State could both host regionals? Or are they going to be playing each other first weekend of the tournament?
Aaron Fitt
12:20
It's interesting because if you JUST looked at the metrics, you'd say Oregon State (No. 10 in the RPI) has a better shot to host than Oregon (No. 24). But of course, if you just looked at the head-to-head results, you'd say Oregon has a much better shot to host thanks to going 4-0 against the Beavers. So where does that leave us? Tricky to figure out, frankly. I still expect ONE of the two to host, at least, and I still think it's possible that both could host, if they both finish strong. Probably the most likely is that one hosts and the other goes to its regional, but I certainly don't think that's a done deal. The next three weeks are big for both teams.
Tony (WV)
12:26
What does WVU need to do to earn a top 8 national seed? Win the Big 12 tournament? Or will winning 4 or 5 of the remaining 6 conference games (K St and Kansas) be enough?
Kendall Rogers
12:26
Tony -- if West Virginia won both of those series, it would certainly have a strong case as that would be the two highest RPI teams on the schedule outside of Arizona (which WVU lost that series). WVU also would have likely won the Big 12 regular season crown by several games. My head tells me more of a 10-14 seed type of team on Selection Monday, but we will see what happens the final two weekends.
Johnny
12:27
UTSA is putting together a terrific year with a current RPI at 21.  Do you see them getting into a hosting conversation?
Aaron Fitt
12:27
You're right, they're having an awesome year, and with a No. 21 RPI and an 18-3 record in the league — a whopping six games ahead of anybody else in the league — it does feel like they should at least be in the hosting conversation. For what it's worth, ECU hosted last year with a No. 24 RPI after going 19-8 to win the league by 2 games. .... (But ECU also had representation on the committee...). Of course, maybe that representation could help UTSA, having someone in that room fighting for his conference. But the Pirates also had more high-end wins last year, going 6-2 vs. Q1, while UTSA is just 3-3, with a pretty uninspiring preconference schedule, aside from a series loss at DBU. Ultimately I feel like that nonconference (losing a series at UT Arlington, then playing 11 games against Long Island, Younstown State and Texas Southern over the next 3 weekends, then losing the DBU series) kinda undermines the dominance of the American, in a down year for the league. So I'd probably bet against them hosting.
West Coast Stitchhead
12:27
Cal Poly  handled business in Bakersfield. 7 games left vs bad RPI schools - will one loss kill them ?
Kendall Rogers
12:27
As unfortunate as it sounds, I do think Cal Poly has little margin for error down the stretch. Down to 37 in the RPI (which is still in solid shape), but as you suggested, it's going to continue going down, especially if they lose any of those games at home to UCR. I still think Cal Poly looks like a postseason type of team, but having series loss to every good team they've played on the weekend is very, very problematic when dissecting bubble teams.
Brett
12:29
What does Southern Miss need to do to get back in the hosting discussion?
Kendall Rogers
12:29
Brett -- Will require winning the final two series of the year (especially at Troy) and then going on a hellacious run in the conference tournament. RPI sitting at 30 in a league, that frankly, hasn't been very good this year outside of three teams, is not the recipe for hosting a regional. Certainly a shot -- but will need help + take care of business on their own.
Tripler
12:29
Do you actually believe there are 6 teams better than Arkansas, or is that just a ranking reflective of the past 4 weeks of results? Vegas has Hogs as title favorites.
Aaron Fitt
12:29
I would probably put the Hogs as my personal title favorite, too -- I said as much on the podcast today. But yes, they paid a bit of a price in the rankings for losing three straight series before this week. At this point in the season, the rankings aren't just "who do we think is the best team" -- that's what they are in the preseason. But now we have 12 weeks of results to draw upon, so even if we think a team is the best, we have to consider its entire body of work, especially in the last month. So Arkansas had a very loud weekend, and has had a great season, but we couldn't exactly jump them up to No. 1 given the results of the last month.

Thanks for reading This Week in #PollMechanics, brought to you by Chris Burke Cadillac of Louisville!
Drew
12:30
What does Oklahoma State need to do to make the NCAA tournament?
Kendall Rogers
12:30
Drew -- back in range, but behind Cincinnati in the pecking order after the weekend the Bearcats just had + the head to head series win by the Bearcats. That means OSU will need to take care of business against BU and Arizona State to end the season and probably win some games in the Big 12 tournament. But the Pokes are at least within range with a 10-11 league record and RPI of 55.
Charles L
12:31
With Vandy sitting at 14-10, and weekend series left against Tennessee and Kentucky, is hosting almost a lock? Barring a complete collapse of course.
Aaron Fitt
12:31
Given that No. 3 RPI, yeah it feels like Vandy is basically a lock to host if it goes 3-3 down the stretch in those last two weekends. Even 2-4 might well be enough for them to host, given that RPI.
Eric Simmons
12:31
I think UCSB has to win the Big West Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament what do you think?
Kendall Rogers
12:31
RPI of 70 and one game over .500 in the Big West? Yep -- it's conference tournament winner or bust for the Gauchos. What's wild about the 'Chos is that they might be the most dangerous team in the Big West if everything is clicking.
Bob
12:33
The Chanticleers are hot right now and the bats are starting to come alive. What's the cap on where they could get seeded?  Is a National Seed out of the question?
Aaron Fitt
12:33
Hey Bob! I think top eight is probably still a stretch, just given the lack of high-end wins -- they're just 3-5 vs. Q1 and only have one more opportunity to win a Q1 game (vs. Clemson tomorrow). The last two series vs. ULM and at ODU won't do much to help their resumé. Feels like they're likely to wind up in that 9-13 seed range, to me.
Cole (WKU)
12:33
What does Western Kentucky have to do in order to get a bid ? I know with the loss to FIU their chances of hosting are slimmer
Kendall Rogers
12:33
I loved the way Rardin's club responded last week. They had an absolute stinker at FIU and then responded with a midweek win over Kentucky and a series sweep over a good Louisiana Tech club. I'd probably have WKU back in the field this week, but we will see if my fellow nerds agree. Take care of your business against NMSU and Jacksonville State, and I think WKU is probably in the field barring some insanity during conference tourney week.
cool 1
Fred
12:36
How much does North Carolina's ranking have to do with D1s belief in them vs. the chaos surrounding them as they had the weekend off and have won six straight series?
Aaron Fitt
12:36
Well they were No. 4 last week so they certainly weren't going to drop in the rankings while other teams around them lost, but it felt like FSU was more deserving of moving UP this week, so that's what happened. It feels like UNC has kinda quietly put together a 35-10 campaign, but since dropping those first two series in ACC play, UNC has won every series, including some pretty good ones vs. likely regional teams Miami, Duke, and Wake Forest. I do like UNC's team; not as much as I liked their team last year, but they are still very good, and they have built a legitimate top-10 resumé. Top five does feel a bit rich... but they keep winning weekends while other teams lose, so that's how it goes.
Kyle
12:37
Two questions. First, you guys said about a month ago that you felt Iowa would make the NCAAT as the Big Ten regular season champion even if they had an RPI in the 60's. They are 65th right now and it's almost impossible for them to not move up if they do win the title. Do you feel that they would be pretty close to a lock if they shared it or won it outright? Second, how dangerous can a team like Iowa be in a regional with the starting pitching that they have?
Kendall Rogers
12:37
I do think if Iowa won the regular season title and had an RPI in the 55-60 range, it would be in the field no matter what. I just think the committee typically has some leeway for the northern teams who have a lot of obstacles to deal with. With that said, a team like Washington, who has the H2H and keeps slowly scaling the RPI, would scare me a little bit if I'm Iowa.
Derek
12:38
Is Irvine still in good shape to host? How many regionals would they put out West?
Kendall Rogers
12:38
Derek -- depends on what UCI's RPI does the rest of the way. It went from 11-12 to 18 over the weekend. Anymore slip ups by the Anteaters and you could see that RPI dip down into the 20s (even with no slip ups). I'm not sure a Big West team is hosting with an RPI of 25 or something like that. As a matter of fact, I think I'd be a little surprised if that happened.
Sparky
12:39
Is there any shot for ASU to get into the hosting mix? Lets say a 6-1 or 5-2 finish to the year and a deep run in the Big 12 tourney?
Aaron Fitt
12:39
Feels like a long shot, but not totally outside the realm of possibility. But I think Arizona is much more likely to host than ASU, given Arizona's big RPI advantage currently and the fact that Arizona won 2 of 3 in Tempe, and 3 of 4 overall vs. ASU. I don't see ASU leapfrogging Arizona in the pecking order, and I think it's quite unlikely that both wind up hosting.
Jon B.
12:42
Who do you guys see as the current front runner for SEC POTY? As a hog fan, I'm obviously leaning towards Wehiwa Aloy, but wanted to see who else you guys have in mind.
Aaron Fitt
12:42
I think I also lean toward Wehiwa, considering the numbers he is putting up while playing a premium position for one of the best teams. Ike Irish actually leads the league in OPS in conference games, I think he is emerging as a top contender as well. Luke Heyman has flown under the radar but has put up huge numbers in conference play. And maybe Rylan Galvan, considering how much he means to Texas, and the excellent numbers in SEC play while playing the most demanding position on the diamond. That's my list of top guys, but there are plenty of others with loud numbers in SEC play, so this thing still feels pretty wide open to me, with Aloy as the slight favorite, then Irish.
Daniel
12:44
What do you think the ceiling is this year for the USC Trojans? I feel like they could get to Omaha if they got the right matchups the 1st 2 weekends of the postseason.
Kendall Rogers
12:44
Daniel -- I would say Super Regional for now. I'm never going to sit here and say in mid-May that a postseason caliber team has no shot at A&M. I do think with Hunter and Aoki in the weekend rotation, it gives the Trojans a bona fide, strong one-two punch in the weekend rotation. That will give the Trojans a leg up on plenty of postseason teams depending on the matchups.
Dom Dolla
12:45
What are your thoughts on a team with an identity like Oregon heading into the last month or so? Seems like they tend to play to the level of their opponent a lot of the time, 19-10 in Q3 which isn't all that impressive, but 9-1 in Q1 which could be argued as the best in the country. Does that bode well for postseason play where the competition will be intensified?
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