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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 6
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Robert
11:40
If Texas wins their last 2 conference series and wins the Big 12 conference tournament, will they host a regional?
Kendall Rogers
11:40
Robert -- highly unlikely. Unfortunately, the Longhorns have so many Q4 losses that it has really dragged down its RPI -- whether fair or not is to be debated. Texas is 50 right now and would need to get to about 20-25 to even have a shot. That's going to be tough to accomplish. I do really like the way the offense looks, and the pitching staff is piecing things together about as well as they can right now.
Cent-Fla-Vol
11:43
I am a huge a Tenn fan but what Travis Bazzana is doing right now is insane. With that being said if you had to build a lineup are you taking Moore or Bazzana to play 2b for you? I do not think you can go wrong with either. Also lets give the pen for Tenn a shout out this weekend. 0 earned runs through 3 games and 14 innings.
Kendall Rogers
11:43
Man -- that is an outstanding question. I absolutely love what Christian Moore is doing this season, but I gotta go with Travis Bazzana. He's electrifying and he's doing it with no near the help that C-Mo is with the Vols. But goodness you could not go wrong with either. Wonderful players.
cool 1
GeoDawg
11:45
I'm getting worried about Mississippi State hosting. This upcoming game against North Alabama must be one heck of an anchor with us being projected to finish 17-13 with an rpi of around 30 over on Warren Nolan. #prayingforrain
Kendall Rogers
11:45
GEO -- Mississippi State goes to Arkansas this weekend, has Missouri after that and then has the SEC tournament. If the Bulldogs do well down the stretch, the RPI will most certainly be in range, and the conference record would obviously be in range as well. I wouldn't worry much about it.
cool 1
GoodKarma
11:46
Is K State firmly in this year?  We can't take another year like last, here in middle America.
Kendall Rogers
11:46
I would not say firmly, but I would say K-State is in as of right now. TCU has moved ahead of KSU in the pecking order, however. Conference record is almost identical, TCU's RPI is much better and TCU has the head to head. With that said, K-State is clearly ahead of Kansas in the pecking order now, too. I think KSU will get in -- but it will need to finish very strong to alleviate no doubt. It's a good thing Casey Scott is on the committee!
Guest
11:47
5 non ranked teams that you believe can make a Super Regional
Aaron Fitt
11:47
Ooh I love this question! Dallas Baptist for sure, I really like the talent on that club and they're due for an Omaha run, like ECU. Kansas State and Northeastern because I'm stubborn and refuse to quit those guys. UNCW, Southern Miss.
cool 2 trophy 1
Zach
11:48
With the outcomes of this past weekend, is the Big 12 down to Ok State and Oklahoma as possible hosting sites?
Kendall Rogers
11:48
You are correct. West Virginia's RPI is down to 41, and Texas is 51 in the RPI, so you can mark them off the list as well. It's OU or Oklahoma State. I feel pretty good about Ou right now, but OSU is at 24 and now has a losing record against Q1. I kinda feel like OSU will get pushed out as a host this week, but don't quote me. I need approval from the NerdMaster General!
Ricky
11:50
Sun Belt Questions: Who is your pick for Player of the Year and Pitcher of the Year?
Aaron Fitt
11:50
Banks Tolley has had a ridiculous year for App State, best OPS in the league in conference-only action, plus 14 HR in Sun Belt play! He'd be a top contender, but I might still lean Kyle DeBarge -- best player on the top team in the league, and the elite defense at short really elevates him. And he's third in the SBC in OPS in conference games, so offense isn't too shabby either. Certainly Brooks Bryan also deserves strong consideration, a catcher putting up huge numbers, leading the nation in RBIs. Pitcher feels wide open, but I keep hearing good things about Bryce Blevins from Marshall, and he's been a workhorse. I lean that way.
Andrew
11:51
How much does Charleston not being able to play the third game against Towson hurt them? UNCW now has sole possession of first in the CAA
Aaron Fitt
11:51
Hurts in the standings, but maybe a blessing in disguise because Towson is 11-36 overall, just an RPI killer. That's a fun race, CofC and UNCW are both legit.
Bearcat
11:53
How we feeling about Cincinnati. What’s needed for a at large bid?
Kendall Rogers
11:53
Bearcat -- Cincy definitely still has some serious work to do. The Bearcats are tied for fifth in the Big 12, which is a massive plus, but the RPI is currently sitting at 67. That will need to get better down the stretch and in the conference tournament. If Cincy can finish strong and be a Top 50-ish RPI team, I think it gets in.
Jake
11:54
How do you see the ACC pitcher of year race finishing? Arnold and Burns are perceived frontrunners, but, as Fitt mentioned last week, Knaak should be right there in the mix.
Aaron Fitt
11:54
To update this discussion after this week: Knaak still leads the league in ERA in conference games by a wide margin (1.85) -- next closest is Shea Sprague at 3.20. That's pretty loud to me, and Knaak also has a 53-6 K-BB mark in 39 IP in conference. He's the best pitcher for the best team in the league. If the season ended today, he would get my vote.
Jake
11:56
What does Texas needs to do to lock up their spot in the field over the last 2 weekends and the big 12 tournament?
Kendall Rogers
11:56
Jake -- if Texas splits those two series and then does OK in the conference tournament, it'll be in the field, IMO, regardless of a 50-ish RPI.
Mason
11:58
At this point in Sun Belt play the four preseason favorites have all played each other and no one is the consensus best, Troy lost to USM, UL lost to Troy and Coastal, Coastal lost to USM and Troy, USM lost to UL

What are you guys take aways from the Fun Belt?  Whats the post season prognosis look like for those four teams
Aaron Fitt
11:58
I'll talk some more Fun Belt since I just made an SBC trip this weekend. It's crazy to say this, but right now Coastal doesn't belong in the same breath with those other three consensus favorites from the preseason. The Chants are 11-13 in the league now, tied for 8th place, and their at-large hopes are on life support, even with that 32 RPI. Troy, UL and USM all feel like strong bets for regionals after the events of this weekend -- had a feeling the Golden Eagles would make a charge down the stretch, and here they come. I walked away from Troy this weekend thinking that both the Trojans and Cajuns are legit teams that could win a regional. I like UL's arms more and its position players are solid, with a true superstar in DeBarge. Troy's offense is elite, tons of discipline and power and length in the lineup. Both teams that will be very dangerous in the postseason.
Brian R
11:58
Question:  It was stated earlier on X that ECU dropped in ranking after winning their weekend series so Arkansas wouldn’t drop any further.  How many times does that scenario happen throughout the course of a season when a mid-major team is in the mix?
Kendall Rogers
11:58
That was a classic case of someone taking words out of context. ECU, FSU and Oregon State all dropped a spot after Arkansas dropped in the rankings (but did not warrant dropping below those teams). It's the unfortunate nature of rankings sometimes, but contrary to popular belief ECU wasn't alone.
Matt
11:59
What is the impact of midweeks at this stage?  Take Duke for example.  They close at ECU tomorrow and host CofC next week.  Could those results have any significance come seeding and selection time?
Aaron Fitt
11:59
Oh sure, those games are resumé boosters, chances to get an RPI bump and improve your record vs. Q1 opponents. They definitely matter, especially right now as those hosting races are getting tight and everything feels magnified.
Eric Simmons
12:01
Has San Diego done enough to be an at large? I think they have
Kendall Rogers
12:01
You sure do think a lot -- and I agree with you, Eric! San Diego deserves to be in at this point. Strong WCC record, 30 RPI, 33-13 overall record, strong marks. I also like the fact that Brock Ungricht put together a stout non-conference schedule (17th NCSOS).
Jordan
12:02
If the Cajuns win 2 of 3 the last two series are they comfortably in for at large no matter what happens in SBC tournament? SunBelt is crazy right now
Aaron Fitt
12:02
I think so. If they win the regular-season title, and I think they will, they they should be fine even with a less than ideal RPI in the 50s, say.
Rigsby
12:04
Thoughts on Southern Miss sweeping Coastal?  Good win for USM with the drop in RPI for Coastal?
Kendall Rogers
12:04
Thought USM played a pretty complete series which hasn't happened a ton this year outside of the Indiana State weekend. USM is in a good spot right now with a 31-17 overall record, RPI of 42 and 15-9 league record. The Golden Eagles won't be hosting, but they're playing a better brand of baseball at the right time.
Maryland in NC
12:04
If the Terps get to .500 or better in B1G play, will they be inside the NCAA bubble? Their RPI is 35, their non-con RPI is 14, and they have a decent road record.
Aaron Fitt
12:04
I think if they can sweep Penn State to get to 13-11, they'll certainly have a shot, but it would sure help if they could at least find a way to get into the top 6 or so in the standings. Their place in the standings is a tough look and undermines their good metrics.
Pokes Fan
12:05
Oklahoma State lost another road series this past weekend and it probably cost them their chances at a regular season big 12 championship. What do their regional hosting chances look like now?
Kendall Rogers
12:05
With a losing record vs. Q1 and an RPI of 24, I would have Oklahoma State on the outside looking in from a Top 16 standpoint. I thought OSU looked OK in my look at it on Saturday. Felt like the offense really had a lot of trouble getting going against Texas' pitching staff.
VolsFaninND
12:06
It seems the Top 8 seeds from last week are pretty locked into being the Top 8 with the exact order still yet to be determined. Who of the Top 8 is in the most danger of dropping out, and who would be in the best position to take their spot?
Aaron Fitt
12:06
I would agree those top 8 still feel static. ECU is the one team I would be concerned about, just because the math tells us their RPI is likely to finish in the low teens at best, and we know the committee leans heavily on RPI for those things. Could see an Indiana State or a Georgia (who is suddenly No. 5 in RPI!) elbowing the Pirates out.
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