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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 6
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AztecDude
1:27
I saw earlier up a question about Fresno and their prospects for an at-large out of the Mountain West. Does the Same go for SDSU where their RPI is too weak to receive an at large?
Kendall Rogers
1:27
Yep. As of right now, San Diego State has an RPI of 69. A Mountain West team is definitely not getting in with that RPI. Will need to win that series at Fresno State this coming weekend, take care of UNM and go on a run in the conference tourney to have a chance at an ATL.
John
1:27
Please explain why Mississippi State never seems to get the benefit of the doubt.  The Dogs have played 29 out of a total of 48 games against teams in your present field of 64.  They are 19-10, including 6-5 against your projected regional hosts and 3-3 against your national seeds.  Meanwhile, I can only find one single team in your projected field of 64 that Stanford has even played (which, they lost 2 of 3 to UCLA).  While Mississippi State plays an SEC schedule and also adds Texas Tech, East Carolina, Sam Houston State, Southern Miss, and Samford to their non-conference slate, Stanford literally hasn't played anyone all season long projected in your field of 64 except for one weekend series, which they lost.  And yet Stanford still gets a pass despite losing to teams like UNLV and UC Davis.  According to you guys' projections, Mississippi State should clearly be ranked above Stanford.  What am I missing, Mr. Fitt?  Just a gut feeling?
Aaron Fitt
1:27
There's no question Mississippi State and Vanderbilt have better bodies of work than Stanford, and I also think MSU and Vandy are just plain better than Stanford -- but I think Stanford is really good too. Look, we've been consistent about this for 15 years -- if you keep on winning your weekend series, you're very seldom going to drop. Maybe somebody will leap over you if there's space, but there's no space to leap anybody over Stanford. They're 17-4 in the Pac-12, 34-8 overall -- clearly they've been very, very consistent, and it's just hard to justify dropping them until they actually lose a series, or even go 2-2. They've only had one week all season in which they lost 2 games -- the UCLA series, and they dropped in the rankings that week. But they just haven't faltered since then. We're just not going to move a team down after a 3-1 week that included a conference road series win. Sorry.
Todd
1:28
Louisiana Tech has struggled to grab even a single win (only one) since just before the Rice series. The tornado obviously has played some part in that, but would wins over LSU and Mississippi State down the stretch be enough to help them get back into the at large conversation?
Kendall Rogers
1:28
Todd -- Winning those two games would help the Bulldogs, but it's hard to find a pathway to the postseason without winning the league tournament. La Tech is now five games out of first place (which is substantial) and the RPI is down to 50. I don't like their chances right now.
Noles 22
1:29
Does the committee take into account that FSU has not had to plays UNC, GT, or Duke from the Coastal? That’s amazing!
Aaron Fitt
1:29
I think that schedule advantage is baked into FSU's metrics -- there's a reason its RPI is in the 50s and its top 50 record is just 9-9, despite a 16-11 record in the ACC. That said, if they win that last series at Louisville, it's hard to imagine then getting left out of regionals with an 18-12 ACC record.
GoPack
1:31
NC State finally showed some positive momentum this week even if it was against not great competition.  Will Wilson back in the lineup already made a difference.  How many ACC wins (including the conference tournament) do you guys think it would take to grab a top 16 seed?  19?
Aaron Fitt
1:31
I think if the Wolfpack wins those last two series vs. Clemson and at UNC, it will wind up hosting. That would be 18-12 in the ACC, and you'd probably like to see them win one more game in the ACC tourney to lock it up.
Rebel Swag
1:32
Has Ole Miss secured a hosting position with Road series win over LSU? Or do we need to win one of the next 2 series against MSU or TN to feel certain?
Kendall Rogers
1:32
Rebel -- I don't think the Rebels have secured one for good -- but I think they look to be in good position as of right now. With the series win, Ole Miss is up to 17 in the RPI with a whopping 16 wins vs. RPI Top 50 teams. Those are two very strong metrics in their favor, along with a solid 15-9 league mark. Looking good for now but could certainly change.
TournyTime
1:33
Who do you least want to see in your region as a host: Cal, Tennessee, Irvine, Sam Houston St?
Kendall Rogers
1:33
Give me Tennessee out of that group. Yep, I know the league record isn't great, but the Vols have the arms to beat anyone in college baseball.
Aaron Fitt
1:34
I think the same can be said for Irvine, those arms are really good. Cal and Sam Houston are more offensive, and I really like Sam Houston's balance overall. The Bearkats are one of my favorite darkhorses to win a regional.
Mitchell
1:33
Iowa in the rankings, which is great...but dropping 8 RPI spots after losing yesterday despite taking the series? Michigan’s resume is objectively less impressive, but they’re almost certain to get in at this point while Iowa probably won’t, especially with our schedule the rest of the way. What gives with the numbers there?
Aaron Fitt
1:33
Yeah that stuff can be frustrating. Obviously we like Iowa's resumé more than Michigan's, that's why we ranked the Hawkeyes and not the Wolverines. We value high-end series wins, and Iowa has four nice ones (sweeping Illinois, at Oklahoma State, vs. Nebraska and vs. UC Irvine). Michigan doesn't have a single series win against anything close to a regional team. But as for the RPI -- Iowa has 12 games against teams outside the top 200, and those games continue to drag them down. If a bunch of teams you played in February go 0-3 on a weekend in May, it hurts you, even if you have a good weekend against a quality opponent yourself. So you're right, the RPI is really working against Iowa right now. Going to be a fascinating bubble case.
Grant
1:34
With the Pokes huge weekend in Corvallis, do you see the Pokes hosting if they can get to 14-10 in league play?
Kendall Rogers
1:34
Grant -- that would mean OSU wins series over Oklahoma and Baylor to close out conference going into the Big 12 tournament. If the Pokes do that, they'd certainly have the RPI and league record to host. I  suppose they could fall back out of a host with a terrible showing in OKC, but boy that would set the table for a likely host for sure.
Dan
1:38
Looking at ECU's remaining schedule, we have 2 series against two okay teams hovering just above 100 RPI's and 2 tougher midweek games  @UNC, and Campbell.  With the way ECU has been playing (11-1 since @UCLA sweep), what do they need to accomplish to get a top 8 seed?  Is the AAC tourney a must win considering the lack of another "elite" team in the AAC like the other 4 major conferences have?
Aaron Fitt
1:38
I don't think a conference tournament title is a must, but it would help, certainly. ECU has a really interesting top-eight case; the RPI is there (currently No. 5), and the committee will love how the Pirates have dominated their league (16-2). But it's still just 7-6 against the top 50, 1-4 against the top 25 -- those numbers will pale in comparison to most of the other top-eight candidates. But it might not matter. If the Pirates win those last two series, and especially if they can also win at UNC and vs. Campbell, I think they've got a very good shot at one of those top eight, as long as they don't go winless in the conference tourney. Or they could take care of business and still wind up outside the top eight, if enough other power-conference contenders finish strong and simply squeeze ECU out. It's going to be very interesting.
Dissapointed Aggie
1:39
Did A&M just lose all hope of hosting with the home series loss to Miss. St?   Also please take us out of the top 25 we are clearly not worthy.
Kendall Rogers
1:39
Nope. If the Aggies win series over Alabama and Arkansas, the pathway to hosting is at their fingertips entering the SEC tournament. The Aggies just need to do something offensively. The pitching is there. The offense is not.
Corey
1:41
With two series left for Arkansas (LSU & A&M), will one series win lock Arkansas as a national seed? From a national perspective do feel the pitching is good enough to get to Omaha? I watch every game and it just seems that they can’t find a true third starter. Maybe I’m just overreacting though. Thank you!
Aaron Fitt
1:41
Yes, I think that's fair to say: win one of those last two series, and I think you can lock in the Hogs as a top eight. That would get them to 19 or 20 SEC wins, and that top 50 record is already really impressive (19-8). Heck, at this point Arkansas has a shot to be a top eight even if it loses lose last two series, as long as it doesn't get swept. As for the arms -- I always worry a little about teams that have multiple freshmen in the weekend rotation, because there's a long history of freshman arms wearing down in June, they're simply not used to that long season. It doesn't always happen that way (see Kevin Abel last year, as an obvious example), but it is something to keep an eye on.
Luke
1:42
Can you see the Missouri valley conference being a three bid league?
Kendall Rogers
1:42
I tend to think the Missouri Valley will be a two-bid league with DBU and either Illinois State or Indiana State, but could it be a three-bid league? Obviously. Right now, DBU is sitting at 33 in the RPI, Ill. State is at 31 and Indiana State is at 29. All within striking range.
BestCoast
1:43
A month ago it looked like 5 teams from the west would host and now it seems like there is the potential for only 2 (UCLA & Stanford). How much did Oregon State getting swept at home by Okie St (Big 12) CRUSH the west coast? If Stanford falters late, could there only be one host?!?!
Aaron Fitt
1:43
Yeah, funny how quickly things went south for the West. Arizona State is out of the hosting mix now, I still don't love UCSB's chances (though they're certainly in the hunt). But I'm not really worried about Oregon State falling out of the hosting mix, the Beavers are just fine. Their top-eight chances certainly took a big hit, though.
Corey S
1:45
Asked this question a couple of weeks ago and you were selling, but have you changed your mind and decided to buy that 4 of the top 8 National seeds from the SEC?
Aaron Fitt
1:45
I think I was on the fence a month ago, but yeah I think I did expect those teams to beat each other up and leave the SEC with potentially only three (especially since the Pac looked like it was going to have 3 or maybe even 4 national seeds a month ago). But now... yes, I'm buying for sure. Vandy, Miss State, Arkansas and Georgia all feel like very strong bets.
Chandler
1:48
What's your thoughts on Nebraska now, given they keep slumping. Looks like they might not even make the post season the way they've been playing especially offensive wise and their schedule is only going to get tougher.
Kendall Rogers
1:48
Chandler -- Looked good for our postseason field last week, but you're right, losing a series to Northwestern at this juncture is pretty terrible. The RPI is down to 47. With that said, the Huskers will have earned a spot in the postseason if they take the series from Arizona State and Michigan, there's no doubt about that. Both of those series are at home, too, so you have to like NU's chances.
Guest
1:49
What is the fewest number of ACC teams that you can possibly see making the tournament? Are FSU-Clemson-Duke fighting for 2 spots?
Aaron Fitt
1:49
I think all three of those could easily get in to give the ACC eight bids... but there's not a lot of margin for error for any of them. Duke is actually in the best shape of the three right now, with a 40 RPI and a 13-11 ACC record, plus that big sweep at Clemson. I'd put FSU next because of its conference record (16-11), even though it's still outside the top 50 in the RPI. Clemson will be OK if it can go 3-3 in its last two series at NC State, vs. Wake. Less than that, I'd really worry about the Tigers, considering how they've collapsed in the second half. Ultimately -- I have a hard time envisioning all three of those teams missing out. I think 6 bids is the likely floor for the ACC. The Deacs are right in the hunt too, don't forget -- 12-12 in the league, 49 in the RPI.
Grayson
1:50
Baylor has a mid-week game against UT-Arlington and a series against Oklahoma State plus the Big 12 Tournament left. What do the Bears need to do in order to host a regional? Get a national seed?
Kendall Rogers
1:50
Grayson -- BU won't get into Top 8 territory IMO with an RPI of 27. Just not sure the Bears have enough opportunities to get to that point. I do think BU is still a host this week. After all, it leads the Big 12, has a Top 30 RPI and has solid metrics (10-6 vs. Top 50, etc). Lose that OSU series and BU could drop out, however.
Jimbo11
1:51
Are the Gators in or out as of today and what is your projection for them making regionals?
Aaron Fitt
1:51
Out. They're 9-15 in the SEC -- that's ugly. I think they need to get to that 14-win mark in the league, which means a 5-1 finish vs. Tennessee, at Missouri. I've given the Gators the benefit of the doubt all year long, but I think I'm finally ready to jump ship. I don't see it happening. It COULD happen, but I no longer expect it.
MIke
1:53
Your surprise team for 2019 so far is...
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