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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 9
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Aaron Fitt
12:23
One more Clemson question, because it's a good one. (1) I have never gotten the indication that the committee digs deep enough in to consider circumstances like weather when evaluating losses. (2) Same answer. Here's an area where I think the committee should dig a little deeper, because unbalanced conference schedules do matter, but I don't think they actually do.
Jim from ACC Land
12:24
Does the MEAC get an automatic berth in the tourney this year?  It looks like they only have 4 teams.  I thought you had to have a certain number (maybe 6 or 7) of team to receive the AQ bid.
Aaron Fitt
12:24
They do still get an automatic bid. They have a year or two (forget the exact amount of time) of a grace period to get back to a larger league before they lose their AQ.
Tech Dad
12:24
If Texas Tech Wins both series vs OK State and OK, is there a chance to host?
Kendall Rogers
12:24
Tech -- If Tech did that, the Red Raiders would have an RPI in the Top 32. That would mean Tech could conceivable get into hosting position with a strong showing at the Big 12 tournament. Unlikely at this point but certainly not out of the question.
Oaklandpanther
12:26
Pitt, just can’t wrap my head around this team. The struggle with a 3rd weekend arm is gonna haunt them on decision Monday I fear. How much ground do they have to make up to make the postseason? The duke series was a positive but Oakland and dropping one to nca&t hurts. Gotta think they have to take the last 2 ACC series right? And that’s a tall task in south bend
Aaron Fitt
12:26
Yeah, Pitt would be on the wrong side of the bubble as of today because of that No. 59 RPI, but at Notre Dame is a great RPI-boosting opportunity, and vs. Georgia Tech as well. But the Needs Report says they need to win seven of their last eight to climb into the top 45, and like Kentucky, I don't see an ACC team getting a bid outside the top 45 this year, even a cold-weather ACC team. Tall task, indeed.
TugboatGumbo
12:27
If LSU wins out, somehow extinguishes the dumpster fire that is their Saturday pitching and infield defense, and sweeps Ole Miss and Vandy: do you see them getting a national seed?
Aaron Fitt
12:27
Yeah I'd say so, that would get LSU to 20-10 in the league. That's usually a pretty good target for an SEC national seed.
Captain Crunch
12:28
Can the West Coast Conference be a 2 Bid League?
Kendall Rogers
12:28
CAP -- I'd have the WCC as a two-bid league right now. USD's RPI has slipped to 48, but it will get a boost in a couple of weekends by facing Gonzaga to end the regular season. Still like where the Toreros sit.
Jason
12:30
Hey Aaron, what was the highlight of your Corvallis trip? One baseball related and one non-baseball.
Aaron Fitt
12:30
Watching Cooper Hjerpe was a real treat, even though the conditions Friday night were miserable. I remember watching Chris Sale in college, and Hjerpe had that kind of look about him -- but I think his secondary stuff is better than Sale's was at the same age, though he has less velocity (but his fastball plays way, way above its velocity -- that is a premium heater at 91-92, it's amazing). Non-baseball highlight was talking with all the fans and parents who stopped by to say hello, really warm hospitality as usual from the folks in Corvallis. Also had a good meal at Block 15.
#1 in your heart
12:31
Mississippi state may not make the ncaa field, but we would be a 1 seed in the NIT. What are the qualifications for the NIT you ask? You must be among national leaders in WLOB (walks + runners left on base). I’m not certain that’s a real metric, but I assure you we lead the country in it.
Aaron Fitt
12:31
We'll have to ask Nerdmaster General Etheridge if he utilizes WLOB when constructing his Road to Quahog bracket.
Chris
12:33
Hey guys, new subscriber here!! Love the content, Wanted to get your opinion on Miami, what do they need to do from here in our to host and also for a national seed? Also Do you think this roster is built for Omaha? Thanks again!!
Kendall Rogers
12:33
Chris -- if the Hurricanes split their final two regular season series, they'd still finish ACC play at 20-10 -- that'd be pretty impressive to go with a Top 10 RPI. That would likely get it done. As for the 'Canes, I really like the one-two punch, and having the best closer in college baseball certainly helps. Miami would be a tough team to knockout.
Triple A
12:33
When do updated positional rankings come out, and do you see any players making a huge jump?
Aaron Fitt
12:33
This week! We'll begin rolling them out tomorrow. Hjerpe is an obvious jumper -- he was No. 13 after week six, but I'd put him at No. 1 right now, we'll see if my colleagues agree. Matt Coutney at ODU is another -- somehow he didn't crack our list at first base in week six. He'll be stuffed way up there in our update.
Brendan Bell
12:34
Despite being behind A&M and LSU in the SEC West, Auburn does have the head to head on the road against them both. If Auburn wins their last two series against Bama and Kentucky, would they be above A&M and LSU in the hosting conversation even if they finish below them in the standings?
Kendall Rogers
12:34
Bell -- Very likely, yes. Auburn would have a higher RPI than both of those teams, would have the H2H against both of those teams AND let's not forget -- the committee knows all about unbalanced schedules. The fact is Auburn had to play Tennessee on the road -- A&M/LSU will not play UT.
Adam
12:35
Good morning! Okay couple weeks ago I asked what was the highest ranked RPI team to miss the field was. This was in reference to where the Gators stood at the time with their conference record and outstanding RPI. Let us get crazy, what if Gators win out and end at 17-13, 2 wins in Hoover, they backdoor into a host?! Thank you!
Aaron Fitt
12:35
Kendall brought up this scenario in our group chat this week. Yes, all of a sudden it does feel like Florida has a pathway to host, as unlikely as that seemed two weeks ago. At South Carolina and vs. Missouri are both sweepable series -- not gimmes of course, and certainly the Gamecocks have proven they can beat anybody. But nonetheless, that's about as favorable as an SEC two-week stretch can be.
Paul
12:38
Nice series win for my Trojans, was this a bigger series win or a more painful series loss for UofA?
Aaron Fitt
12:38
I would have to say the latter. USC is 8-16 in the Pac, they're really not going anywhere. Arizona is trying to build its resumé, that was an important weekend.
Colby
12:39
A&M won two out of three against SCAR and won their midweek, yet fell to 24 in RPI. How does that effect chances of hosting? What would A&M have to do to stay in the discussion for a national seed?
Kendall Rogers
12:39
Colby -- Having your RPI drop down to 24 because of one loss isn't optimal, but the Aggies are sitting at 14 SEC wins with two weekends to go. If A&M wins both of those series and is sitting at 18 league wins entering the SEC tournament, I find it very hard to believe they wouldn't be a Top 16 host, at minimum, even if the RPI is in the 20-25 range.
Jeffrey
12:39
What are your thoughts on DBU's chances for potential hosting opportunity considering they are RPI #6 and SOS #4 if they win there last 2 series?
Aaron Fitt
12:39
I still think the key for DBU to host is to win the MVC regular-season title; otherwise I don't think their strong RPI will be enough. They're currently three games out of first place, and lost the head-to-head series vs. first-place Evansville. I'm not loving DBU's chances.
Brendan Bell
12:42
Is the Pac 12 still a lock to get 5 bids? With Arizona and UCLA dropping tough series over the weekend, those two are slipping in the RPI. I think the Pac deserves 5 bids, but if either one of those teams doesn’t finish strong, I feel like they could be sweating a bit on selection Monday.
Aaron Fitt
12:42
I think that's fair. Still feels like a five-bid league, but the Bruins and Wildcats are starting to run out of wiggle room. At No. 63 in the RPI, UCLA is outside of typical at-large range, but Pac-12 teams get more leeway and have gotten bids in the 60s before. I still assume UCLA's RPI will rebound, but the Needs Report says they need to win 7 of their last 8 to get into the top 45, so you're probably looking at an RPI around 50 heading into the conference tourney. Let's say UCLA goes 3-3 down the stretch vs. Wazzu and at Oregon State; that would get them to 17-13 in the Pac. I think that's enough to get a bid even with a borderline (at best) RPI.
Captain Crunch
12:44
I think Mississippi State's at large hopes are all but gone after getting swept by Florida at home. What do you think?
Kendall Rogers
12:44
Mississippi State's RPI is sitting at 102 and it has a 9-15 record in the SEC. Let's just assume they win both series to end the regular season -- that's still 13-17 going into the SEC tournament with a (still) very bad RPI. It's going to take winning those two series AND making a run in Hoover.
Gohogsscc
12:45
A series win for hogs over Vandy and Bama to finish the year lock in a top 8 seed?
Kendall Rogers
12:45
If the Hogs do just that -- yep, top-eight lock for me, IMO. That would likely mean winning the SEC West by 2 or 3 games.
cool 1
PNW
12:45
For Aaron, Oregon St continues to dominate with a great sweep over the  Ducks. Were than any positives for the Ducks this past week or is this team trending downwards with that pitching staff that continues to give up sooo many free passes? Still a team capable of winning a regional or do they need another year to patch the roster?
Aaron Fitt
12:45
I wrote my thoughts about Oregon today in my takeaways piece, so I would encourage you to check that out. I still really like that position player group, but this weekend didn't do anything to assuage my doubts about the pitching staff. They need to throw more strikes, and they need to get more length out of their starters. Waz indicated he will mix things up and try guys in new roles, but my gut says this team is probably a little light on the mound to win a regional. But you never know, if their bats are hot, they could slug their way through. Lots of very good players in that lineup, and they can defend.
Hoover
12:46
Maybe this is a question for the Nerd-in-Chief, but when was the last time the SEC had no teams in the RPI 26-50 range? This seems…good for mid-majors.
Aaron Fitt
12:46
I'll pass it along to the NMG! Seems like a relevant observation, I would tend to agree with you. With teams like South Carolina, Ole Miss, Alabama and Kentucky all outside the top 50, their at-large chances are not great. And that does help the mid-major bubble teams.
Kyle Hutson
12:48
What is the most likely seed for Texas State and what do y’all think is the ceiling for the Bobcats?
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