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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: Monday, March 25
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GeoDawg
12:07
Mississippi State managing to grab a game against Texas A&M this weekend feels huge. If they can come out of Gainesville with 4-5 SEC wins, I have to feel optimistic about them reaching 14 (and even hopeful about 16). Finishing the conference slate against Missouri at home and potentially getting Dohm back soon makes anything feel possible.
Kendall Rogers
12:07
For sure. I think if MSU can go on the road and get at least one this weekend, I'm feeling pretty good its staying power moving forward. Frankly, I really liked what I saw over the weekend. MSU really makes you throw strikes and Siary and Stephen were both very good. Once Dohm comes back (which is going to happen from what I'm told), that will create even more flexibility on the mound. I just really like the overall vibe of this MSU club -- Aaron did, too, two weeks ago.
Heel
12:09
Thoughts on UNC/Wake this weekend? Big chance for UNC to vault itself into the top tier of the ACC conversation.
Aaron Fitt
12:09
Yeah it feels like anything can happen from week to week in the ACC, and we are already seeing teams beat up on each other, going from the good end of a sweep one week to the wrong end of a sweep the next. But I do believe UNC is in that same category with Wake Forest as viable regional hosting contenders in that league, and I actually like UNC's bullpen and position player group better than Wake's. Beating Chase Burns feels like an impossible assignment right now, but you'd probably have to give the Tar Heels the advantage on the mound in the other two games. Very intriguing series.
GeoDawg
12:10
Dang. The top of the Fun Belt took a hit this weekend. Now the #6 rpi conference, are they down to a 3 bid league rather than 4? I think its chock full of regional caliber teams, it just seems like they may cannibalize each other into a cluster of 40s-60s rpi's, rather than 4-5 in the top 40.
Kendall Rogers
12:10
Still too early to predict exact bids, but I think it could be anywhere from 3-5 bids before it's all said and done. There are plenty of RPI adjustments that will happen between now and even 2-3 weeks from now. For instance, even though I love what the Big East is doing, that league won't stay where it is right now from an RPI standpoint. I feel pretty good about Coastal and Southern Miss right now. I also feel like teams like Louisiana, Texas State and perhaps even a App State is right ont he cusp. Same as USA.
TVogel
12:12
At the beginning of the season did you ever picture that the only 2 Big 12 teams in the Top 25 after 3 weeks of conference play as KSU and OU?
Aaron Fitt
12:12
I am surprised TCU has struggled the way it has over the last three weeks, and I don't have a ready explanation for it, but I definitely would not have expected the Frogs to be out of the Top 25 right now. But we were high on Kansas State heading into the season (they were a preseason Top 25 club for us), and we all thought OU was an intriguing sleeper club, so I'm not shocked to see both of them ranked right now, though both have had ups and downs. Much like the Pac-12 and the ACC, the Big 12 just feels so topsy-turvy right now, and aside from Oregon State and Clemson, I think we are just searching for truly high-end, elite contenders out of those three leagues. Will be interesting to see how it all plays out in the weeks ahead.
Len
12:12
I'll be the guy concerned about RPI in late March. Florida has two huge series wins over A&M and LSU plus the #2 SOS in the country. But they're only 18th in the RPI. Reason for concern long term?
Kendall Rogers
12:12
Len -- negative. The only reason for the iffy RPI right now are those midweek blunders. If Florida keeps winning in the SEC and on the weekends, the RPI will take care of itself. Zero cause for concern.
Erik
12:14
Has anybody tried unplugging Indiana and plugging them back in? It's a rough go in Bloomington right now
Kendall Rogers
12:14
Erik -- It has been mind blowing to see what Indiana was the first couple of weeks, particularly at Coastal, and what the Hoosiers are right now. Outside of a couple of one offs, their pitching staff has been atrocious. I think it was Joe or Roons who said it earlier this year, but they at the time were curious to see how IU would response from losing Luke Sinnard for the year. Obviously not very well. With an RPI in the triple digits, it's must-win time (already) for the Hoosiers.
Rush
12:15
Is South Carolina good at baseball?
Aaron Fitt
12:15
I'll give South Carolina a lot of credit for the way that team responded this week, that's a very loud sweep against a good Vandy club. I'll raise my hand, I thought the Gamecocks looked just OK down in Oxford last week (though I wasn't there for the series finale), but it seems like they're finding answers on the mound, and Tyler Pitzer's performance was particularly encouraging -- we always liked the arm talent, but in the fall it felt like he needed more polish to be ready for an SEC weekend role. If he can help stabilize that rotation, and now that Becker is back, I feel a lot better about that staff. Ultimately I think South Carolina is about what we thought they were heading into the year -- a very good offensive club, a little light on marquee arms, but solid enough to be a 15-25 type team in the Top 25 for most of the year.
Brad
12:16
Should I be nervous about Coastal? Hitting lefties is an issue and pitching has not been good. Do you foresee this squad hosting or more 2/3 line. Should I panic? Enjoy you guys!
Aaron Fitt
12:16
I wouldn't panic, still really like their lineup and they do have some good arms, but this was a bad week. We never expected Coastal to be elite on the mound, it was always a team that was likely going to have to win a lot of high scoring games, and I still think that's the case. I certainly still believe that team is capable of rallying and hosting a regional.
Marc
12:17
What do you think about the upcoming Texas-KSU series? Has Texas found a solution to the rotation problems in Whitehead and Grubbs? And is there enough depth in the bullpen to compete for a Big XII title? The lineup is deep but the pitching seems like the worst in a long time for UT.
Kendall Rogers
12:17
Marc -- Should be a really interesting series. I like Kansas State at home in this one, especially with Neighbors back in the saddle, but Texas definitely has my attention with Grubbs and now Ace Whitehead throwing well. Beyond LBJ, the weekend rotation had been an issue for the Longhorns. Texas doesn't have a ton of high-quality bullpen depth,  but if those two guys can give you some length, it takes pressure off the pen to a great degree. UT's pitching will never be 'good' this season -- serviceable to go with that lineup? Absolutely. The Big 12 is incredibly wide open right now.
IO
12:19
Kendall, you said Georgia needs to win the series in Knoxville to be ranked. Home teams are 11-3 in SEC series this year. Respectfully, why would winning a road series against a Top 15 team be the baseline for finally ranking a team with a Top 10 RPI? You guys flew FSU into the ranking last week all the way up at #12. That would be like telling them they can’t be ranked until they win the series in Clemson.
Kendall Rogers
12:19
If Florida State had gotten destroyed in a weekend series by a comparable team by more than three touchdowns, I'd think you had a fantastic point. But as impressive as the Bulldogs were over the weekend, I just want them to establish some consistency on the weekend. I don't think it's crazy to ask to have them put together back-to-back solid weekends to prove their worth, especially with how ugly that UK series was. The good news is that the Bulldogs are clearly improved.
Hog Fan
12:19
At this stage of the season, what team do you think is most likely to end up as the #1 overall seed? Considering the remaining schedules, I would think it's probably Oregon State, followed by Clemson, and then whoever emerges as SEC regular season champion.
Aaron Fitt
12:19
I still think it's Arkansas. Even though you're absolutely right that the SEC is so rugged that nobody runs the table, I just think Arkansas' pitching is so elite that they will be able to handle that meat-grinder better than most. I see them winning that league, maybe even comfortably, and winding up as the No. 1 national seed. But Oregon State and Clemson do feel like the next two likeliest. Beavers are going to run roughshod through the Pac-12, but the Pac is so down this year that that won't carry as much weight as winning the SEC, even with a lesser conference record. And I think we'll see a lot of teams going back and forth in the ACC all year long; I do really like Clemson, but I don't see them running away with that league. Too many good teams.
Guest
12:21
What is the reasoning behind leaving UF at 6 after a higher rank series win away, and the reasoning behind A&M being ranked above UF?
Kendall Rogers
12:21
A&M has been way more consistent than Florida across the board, and let's not act like Florida dominated that series at home. All three games could've gone either way, and the series finale was a nail biter. Great series win for the Gators, but A&M has way more quality pitching depth at the moment with comparable offensive lineups.
Ben
12:21
Hello gentlemen! I assume it’s not something y’all track, but 12 of your top 25 losing weekend series has to be close to a record! Is this a sign of things to come in June? A not top heavy, topsy-turvy, wide open tournament? Thanks!
Aaron Fitt
12:21
Yeah that's a lot of carnage! And I do think it's indicative of the state of college baseball this year -- a lot of parity, a lot of good but flawed teams, very few truly elite teams. It's just so hard to pitch in college baseball in this current environment, that teams that have truly elite pitching like Wake and LSU had last year, and like Arkansas has this year, really stand out. But does anybody except Arkansas have elite pitching this year?
Dalton
12:22
Georgia is first in HR by a mile. 2nd in OBO. 4th in Runs. 7th in BB. By every metric this is one of the best offensive teams in the country and they have a Top 8 RPI. What more could these guys do? They just swept a Top 15 team.
Aaron Fitt
12:22
Maybe don't get swept just last week by Kentucky?
Guest
12:23
Which team getting swept is more concerning: FSU or Vandy?
Kendall Rogers
12:23
Great question. I would say probably Vanderbilt. FSU looked the part offensively and in terms of starting pitching for much of the weekend. The bullpen was the common denominator with all of its issues. Vandy was thoroughly dominated, it seems, all weekend long against the Gamecocks. Time will tell, but I'd say Vandy for now. But I'm not one to press panic over a single weekend. Let's see how this week goes for both.
Lubbock
12:26
Man what is going on with TCU such a hot start and now are currently sitting last in the Big 12 3 weeks into conference play. Can they turn it around?
Kendall Rogers
12:26
Lubbock -- the Horned Frogs have the ability to turn it around, but the offense is going to have to get better. Payton Tolle threw a gem over the weekend. But the offense? TCU is hitting .193 as a team in conference with just four homers. I still really like their offensive personnel, but safe to say they're in a funk. TCU is still 39 in the RPI ... so not all is dead yet.
EarlyThursdayEsso
12:26
Lost in the shuffle of the FSU bullpen blowups (I believe they just walked another batter to the tune of the Vengaboys), the Clemson pitching staff gave up a ton of runs the last two weekends.  Are the arms there to make this team a legitimate postseason threat?  Or are we looking at another regional flameout
Aaron Fitt
12:26
That is a valid question, and you're right -- if you have to come back from 8-1 and 11-2 down, it means you didn't exactly pitch great. They'll certainly need Tristan Smith to come back strong from the ankle injury he's now dealing with (which will cost him a couple of weeks), and they need to keep ramping up Austin Gordon. I think a Gordon/Smith/Knaak rotation, in some order, can be one of the better trios in the ACC, and I do like the depth of that Clemson bullpen, though maybe they don't have a true lights-out, shutdown guy at the back end. In the end, I think Clemson's pitching staff is solid enough but again, it's not like 2023 Wake or 2024 Arkansas. And unless you have that kind of staff, everybody is vulnerable in the postseason. But Clemson has also has that "it" factor; they have a knack for simply finding a way to win. That's such a valuable trait, even if we can't quantify it.
cool 1
TxAg
12:28
How confident are y’all with A&M’s starting pitching? I have high confidence in their bats to be able to compete with anyone, but I feel like they have a hole in that Saturday spot. Maybe it’s just me, but I feel like the Ags will be playing in a lot of rubber matches this season.
Kendall Rogers
12:28
I still feel pretty good about it. Prager and Lamkin were both excellent over the weekend and Tanner Jones certainly has the staff. Here's the thing about A&M right now -- Chris Cortez was nasty as hell against Florida, and I think A&M is in a position to where Cortez will be its security blanket. If someone on the weekend gets in trouble, he's going to bridge the gap for 4-5 innings until they can turn things over to the bullpen. I thought it was interesting the Aggies went all weekend without having to throw Cortez.
Danny
12:29
Should Auburn be worried about the slow start in conference?  1-5 with A&M and Tennessee on deck.  It's still early but it seems like things need to turn around in a hurry.
Aaron Fitt
12:29
Yeah, that's suddenly kind of a daunting spot to find yourself in, especially with the A&M series being on the road. It's easy to envision Auburn being 3-9 in the league after four weeks, and it's not like the weekends after that are pushovers. I will never write off Butch Thompson's squad, they're so well coached and they always seem to make good in-season adjustments, but I am concerned this thing could spiral and get out of hand in a hurry. Stay tuned.
PIGS
12:29
LSU is coming into Baum Walker hungry after losing at home to Florida this past weekend.  What do you expect to see In Fayetteville this weekend, and how many Ks will Hagan Smith have at the end of the year?
Kendall Rogers
12:29
I'm not going to lie -- I'll likely take Arkansas in this series, but man, I would NOT want to play LSU (home o away) with its back against the wall like this. Really scary series for the Hogs, IMO.
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