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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: Week Six
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Ricky B
12:31
How is UTSA not ranked yet? Pat Hallmark is doing a tremendous job with that program from last year to this year.
Kendall Rogers
12:31
Rick -- UTSA is right on the cusp. The schedule is not very good, but this team is just winning games. With that said, I am going to get my eyes on the Roadrunners this weekend at Rice. Hallmark is an outstanding coach. Clearly, he learned a lot from Wayne Graham, but this is a guy who was a rock star in short order at UIW before taking the UTSA job. Now, this looks like a team slated to win 35-40 (or more) games again this season. Major stock rising.
Guest
12:33
How do you continue to rank Vanderbilt so high?
Kendall Rogers
12:33
I'd love to hear the argument against Vandy being ranked high. Vandy has played a very challenging schedule and has racked up several impressive wins, including Oklahoma State (1), UCLA (2) and now Ole Miss (3). Honestly, few teams, if any, have the resume that VU possesses right now.
cool 4
Eric Simmons
12:34
Who do you think needs to win the series more Tennessee or Texas A&M? I think Tennessee cause they can't afford to start 1-5  or 0-6 in SEC Play
Kendall Rogers
12:34
I would go with Eric. I said a while back that if A&M went 4-5 during this stretch, I'd consider that a win for the Aggies moving forward. They're still on track to do that. If Tennessee loses that series at home, it will then have to go to LSU the next weekend while scuffling. Not exactly easy, and it's not like the schedule lets up much this spring.
Jay
12:36
Rank these 3 sweeps in order of most surprising vs least? Ole Miss, Miss State, and Tennessee
Kendall Rogers
12:36
Tennessee, Ole Miss and Mississippi State. I like Missouri's club, but to sweep UT and dominate that series is impressive as hell. Ole Miss surprised me because I figured at the least the Rebels would hit, and lastly, I'm not that surprised by the UK sweep. I just don't think Mississippi State is very good.
Horn Frog
12:38
Y'all were pretty tough on TCU going from 11 to drop out of the Top 25. That seems kind of harsh especially when there were other teams cough cough A&M that did the same thing a couple weeks earlier and didn't drop them to significantly.
Kendall Rogers
12:38
We had long discussions about TCU in the rankings. I actually vouched to potentially keep them in, but nine losses is nine losses and TCU just isn't the same team (with the injuries) that it was a few weeks ago. I still am pretty bullish on this club once they get everything back on track injury wise.
Connor
12:38
Is it time to panic on FSU? Would a good week against UF and UVA get them back inside the top 25?
Aaron Fitt
12:38
Not panic time... but probably time to recalibrate your expectations. FSU is probably more like what we thought it the preseason (a 26-40 type club) than the top 15-ish club we thought they might be after winning that TCU series. They definitely need to get healthy, though -- if Cam Smith (in particular), DeAmez Ross and McGuire Holbrook miss more time, that would not be great. And the fact that Crowell did not recover well from his first career start and was skipped this weekend, that's a little concerning. Definitely nervous about the Noles.
Guest 1
12:39
Is it crazy to think after last weekend that Oklahoma State is still a better team than Texas Tech?
Kendall Rogers
12:39
Guest -- I will let Aaron dive into Oklahoma State and Texas Tech a little bit more, but when I saw OSU, I was just not that impressed with its bullpen. I thought Tech had much much better arms back there. I also think the rotations are comparable. I do think OSU has more upside offensively, but hell, it's hard to argue much about what Tech's offense has done the past couple of weeks. Impressive surge.
Aaron Fitt
12:41
I actually disagree with Kendall on the OSU bullpen -- I think Nolan McLean and Isaac Stebens will be a vicious one-two punch to anchor that pen (despite Texas Tech beating those two on Friday -- tip your cap to the Red Raiders), and I think the support pieces are solid enough. Feels to me like these two teams are actually pretty evenly matched, and I think they will prove to be the best two teams in the Big 12, ahead of TCU for me. Oklahoma State is very good, and it is better defensively than we saw this weekend.
Kendall Rogers
12:42
I like the point Aaron makes about the two teams having a lot of parallels. I also have both of those teams ahead of TCU right now, especially with the bumps and bruises the Frogs have right now.
Johnny gonzalez
12:41
Dont you think A&M dropping 6 spots was a little harsh considering they played the best team in the country and atleast took one?
Kendall Rogers
12:41
Johnny -- I don't think it's harsh at all. I do think A&M will be fine once Werner and Minnich are healthy, but what exactly is A&M's resume right now? Beat LSU (once) and got smoked the other two games -- Beat Texas Tech once (that's looking like a very good win). Other than that, there's not a lot of meat on the bone. 20-22 is actually a very very good spot for a team like that, IMO. On a side note, keep an eye on Justin Lamkin. I was ultra-impressed at how he attacked LSU's lineup yesterday. He's a weekend starter for me moving forward.
cool 2
Charliebee
12:43
I know yall always get the same ol questions every week but how do yall feel about texas tech and their position in the big 12? I know it's early but I sure like what I'm seeing from this EXTREMELY young team.
Aaron Fitt
12:43
To follow up on my last answer -- I'm with you, just super-impressed with all those youngsters that Tech is leaning heavily upon (in fact, that's the subject of my column this morning from Lubbock). That position player group is much better than I expected it to be going into the season, and they have a lot of quality pieces to mix and match on the mound, so I think they're fine despite not having maybe the same kind of true horses and star power on the pitching side that they've had in the past. I thought their collection of lefties was deep and capable, and they have some good slider specialist matchup guys from the right side. Feels like a really solid all-around club.
HardBall Fan
12:44
I feel like Bieser and Mingione might have saved their jobs with the start to the season they are having. On the flip side, is Lemonis sliding onto the hot seat?
Kendall Rogers
12:44
Hardball -- You won't keep or lose your job in the SEC by what you do in mid-March. You'll do that by what you do in May. I would be floored if MSU parted ways with Lemonis no matter what happens this year, but this is a program with a 70 million dollar ballpark, so if things continue to go sour, I do think you'll see some sort of shakeup on the staff. Anyway, it's way too early to speculate on that. Let the season play out.
MP17
12:45
What are your thoughts on Slam Marcos? Quality wins this past week against TCU,USM. Are the Bobcats just outside of the top 25? What is needed this week to bump them up into T25?
Kendall Rogers
12:45
MP17, I think Texas State is probably in with a series win during the upcoming weekend. The resume is still a little light with series losses to ORU and Grand Canyon in recent memory. But assuming Zeke Wood comes back, that's an elite-ish rotation with an outstanding offensive lineup. I love that lineup top to bottom. I would have the Bobcats in the 26-28 range, personally speaking.
Matt W
12:46
How much of South Carolina's defensive success is actually good pitching/fielding vs breaking their opponents with offense? They have a great record and amazing offensive stats so far, but I'm not seeing them line up defensively with the SEC's elite.
Aaron Fitt
12:46
The Gamecocks feel like a solid-average type SEC defense to me -- certainly not premier, but I think it's probably good enough, given the caliber of their arms and their bats. That was a loud sweep on the road to start SEC play, in the biggest test of the year for a club that has racked up wins against a pretty soft schedule, let's face it. But I always thought they were legit regardless, and they showed it by handling Georgia on the road this weekend.
StatsMan
12:49
Almost everyone knows the flaws of using RPI to evaluate teams. Why doesn't the Selection Committee use a better metric, such as Boyd World's ISR? It won't take an NCAA ruling, just committee members knowing that measures other than the RPI exist.
Aaron Fitt
12:49
I'm not sure how the committee members feel about ISR (I'm guessing they're just not familiar with it), but I do know that John Cohen (this year's chairman) recognizes the RPI's flaws, and when I spoke with him after last year's selections he indicated that he's looking for new and innovative approaches to constructing the field. What that looks like specifically, I'm not sure.
12:51
But also I should add, the committee is a little restricted by the guidelines in the NCAA handbook. Teams are told the RPI is a major tool, so they try to schedule accordingly. It would not be fair to then change the criteria on the fly -- you'd have to give everyone advance notice. So I'm not sure how much Cohen can really reform things in the short term.
andy gebrabar
12:53
Besides UCLA and Stanford which seem to be the top teams in the Pac-12 the rest of the field looks pretty close after a few weeks of conference play. Are there any teams that have a chance to compete with the top 2 in the long run?
Aaron Fitt
12:53
Honestly, I don't think so. Feels like the Cardinal/Bruins in some order, then a pretty significant gap, then everybody else. Definitely feels like it's going to be a free-for-all after those top two; USC, Washington, Wazzu all look significantly improved, and how about Oregon State and Cal both down at 1-5 after two weekends? They are both better than those records reflect, but their one of them is going to give UCLA or Stanford a run for its money. I would expect them to rebound and climb the standings as things progress, however.
Dawson Brooks
12:57
So why does Bama drop out despite the fact they took the number 3 team to the wire, but ole miss stays in after going 0-4 this week, A&M is still in with 6 losses, and Tennessee has about the same amount of good wins as Alabama, they also got run off the field this weekend
Aaron Fitt
12:57
We did have a long discussion about whether or not to keep Bama in the Top 25 this week. Ultimately we decided to drop them and reward other teams that have beaten better competition. Alabama hasn't won a series against anybody remotely postseason-caliber, and we gave the Tide a bit of a pass after losing a series at home to Columbia last weekend -- but that's still a series they should win. Columbia's a solid program, but that team is 6-9 and just lost a series against a bad Tulane team. So follow that up with another series loss, as the No. 24 team in the rankings, and you fall out. If they were top 5 heading into it, like Tennessee, they would have stayed in, but those teams at the top obviously have more of a cushion. There's a reason the Vols are ranked so high -- they have a lot of guys back from a team that dominated the SEC in historic fashion last year. Bama had much more to prove heading into the season.
cool 2
Mike deSabto
12:59
Where’s Old Dominion?
Aaron Fitt
12:59
Monarchs were in our discussion, but man, that schedule is weak sauce. They need to schedule better in nonconference if they want to be considered for the Top 25 this early in the season; 18-2 is nice, but we need to see some meat on the bone.
Guest
1:03
Why is Stanford ranked above South Carolina when South Carolina has the better RPI, SOS, and Stanford has 5 Ls compared to just 1 for the Gamecocks?
Aaron Fitt
1:03
See my answer about Alabama/Tennessee. Stanford was a preseason top 3 team because its roster is loaded with players with Omaha track record. South Carolina started lower (even though we were pretty aggressive in ranking them in the preseason coming off a losing season in 2022) because it had more to prove. Running up wins against very soft nonconference competition allows a team to hold its ground in the rankings, but doesn't allow it to move up as quickly. Stanford, meanwhile, fell from No. 2 to No. 9 last week, but then rebounded very strong this weekend by sweeping Oregon State. Anyway -- you can't just look at two teams' overall records and say, "this team has 5 more losses so it shouldn't be ranked higher". If that's what you want, you can just pull up a list of the nation's winning percentage leaders and call it a day. That would not be a very good barometer of which teams are the best, I'll tell you that right now.
angry 2
Logan
1:04
What are you expecting from Arkansas-LSU? What are Arkansas' keys to winning the series?
Kendall Rogers
1:04
Logan -- I think the big key for Arkansas in that series is getting some length out of the starting pitching and command. LSU did not budge at all when A&M's arms nibbled on the outside corner. Arkansas will HAVE to throw strikes -- but not right down the middle. Easier said than done.
cool 1
Jason
1:05
No love for UCF knocking FSU around midweek
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