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D1Baseball's 2020 Draft Chat
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Aaron Fitt
1:09
Hi gang! Kendall is writing up today's big news about roster relief for college baseball from the NCAA, so David Seifert and I will hold down the fort here in the chat room. Let's talk some prospects!
Josh
1:14
Do you think that high school seniors that will be draft eligible sophomores will be more likely to go to school this year compared to previous years?
Aaron Fitt
1:14
Guys who will be eligible as sophomores are always more likely to go to school than players who won't be eligible until they are juniors, but I do think we could see that even more than usual this year, given the uncertainty around pro ball, the deferment of most of a player's signing bonus, and the fact that the draft is just so much shorter. A lot of times you might see a club roll the dice on a high-profile high school kid in round 11 and try to sign him with money saved from deals in the first 10 rounds, but that won't be the case this year.
Vandychris
1:17
Where do you think the pitchers fall-Bryce Jarvis, Hancock, Asa Lacy, and Mad Max?
Aaron Fitt
1:17
I think Lacy, Hancock and Meyer are slam-dunk top-10 picks. Our latest mock has Lacy going No. 3 to the Marlins, Hancock going No. 6 to Pittsburgh, and Meyer going No. 8 to San Diego. There are plenty of rumors about Jarvis getting interest in the 18-25 range, and I suspect that's where he'll wind up.
JYD
1:21
Do you expect more High school or College players to take the $20k after the 5th round?
Aaron Fitt
1:21
Definitely more college guys; I think very few high school players will sign for $20K or less. Just makes so much more sense for those guys to go to college and try to boost their stock for a future draft with more rounds, while also working toward a degree. I suspect a lot of college seniors will take the $20K or less, and some juniors, but not nearly as many.
Ole Miss Logo
1:25
"Even though the season was so shortened, XXXXX did the most to improve his draft stock."
Aaron Fitt
1:25
I feel like you're setting me up to say "Anthony Servideo" -- and I think that's a pretty good answer! Frankly, I don't know that he was regarded as a sure-fire top-10 round prospect heading into the season, but now I think he looks like a 3rd-4th round type. He could always really defend and run, but he clearly got much stronger and surprised people with his ability to drive the ball. His improvement with the bat really helped his value skyrocket. The other obvious answer to this question is Bryce Jarvis, whose velocity jump and dramatically improved breaking stuff vaulted him into the first round. He was 88-91 last year, and this spring he was 92-95 touching 96, with high-end command. That's just a huge jump.
TxBall17
1:26
Any incoming signing classes that might be hurt by this years draft? Texas is probably going to lose Kelley, Jones, and Tucker even with the shortened format.
DSeif
1:26
Shooter Hunt of Prep Baseball Report wrote about 10 that he felt could be the most affected. Texas was No. 1. You can find it at D1 here- https://d1baseball.com/recruiting/ten-recruiting-classes-at-risk-headi...
And yes, the Longhorns could get hammered by the draft.
Alex
1:28
Binghamton 2B Alex Baratta has shown a consistently good hit tool and solid defense. Is there any chance he could be an undersold 5th round pick or a priority UDFA?
Aaron Fitt
1:28
I could certainly see Baratta being a priority UDFA; he's a performer who had a great junior year and was off to an even better start as a senior this spring. Scouts up in the Northeast already regarded him as a good player, and I think he only helped himself more in the shortened season. I have not heard any top-five-round buzz on him though; it's just going to be really hard to sneak into those top five rounds this year.
AgBBall
1:32
What players from Texas do you think have a chance to go in round 1 tonight?
DSeif
1:32
Asa Lacy, Heston Kjerstad (attended HS in TX), Tanner Witt, Jared Kelley, Nick Loftin, Drew Romo, Clayton Beeter, Justin Lange. Outside chance Jordan Westburg (attended HS in TX), Cam Brown.
Nate Habegger
1:33
What are your thoughts on juniors signing this year as a free agent.  They would have 2 years of eligibility left but with the uncertain future of the 2021 draft, at $20K signing bonus plus tuition paid seems like something they should consider.
Aaron Fitt
1:33
It will certainly make sense for some guys -- especially guys that probably weren't going to get a lot more than $20K bonuses even in a normal year. But there were 400 players who got six-digit bonuses after the fifth round last year, and I think the vast majority of players in that situation this year would be better off going back to school than signing for $20K, not having a minor league season (and not drawing any salary while spending the rest of the summer in extended spring training). And then if MLB succeeds in its goal to dramatically slash the number of affiliates next year, there are going to be far fewer jobs available for those guys in pro ball. We just saw a host of minor leaguers released across pro ball, so there's already huge competition for spots. Why not go back to school and work toward your degree, and take your chances in a 20-round draft next year? I just think that approach makes so much more sense for the majority of players.
Guest
1:35
Will KevIn Parada go in the late first or top of the 2nd?
DSeif
1:35
If those are my only choices, Top 2.
Pistol Pete
1:35
Do you think Kaden Polkovich (OKState) will be drafted tonight?
DSeif
1:35
Tonight, no. Tomorrow, yes.
Aaron Fitt
1:36
To follow up, we view Polcovich as a fourth- to fifth-round candidate, so he could very well get picked tomorrow night. He really helped himself by shining against premier competition with a wood bat in the Cape Cod League last year, and he continued to hit in the shortened spring season. Great athlete, switch-hitter with pop and speed; there's a whole lot to like there, even though he's undersized. If he doesn't get picked tomorrow night, I suspect he'd be inclined to return for another year, because he could make a lot more in the draft in 2021.
Terry
1:37
Does Logan Hofmann gets drafted tomorrow?
DSeif
1:37
Outside chance he is selected tomorrow, anything is possible. But, typically pitchers with his profile are more likely to go closer to the 10th than the 5th.
David
1:40
How do you see Ragin’ Cajun pitcher Conor Angel fitting into the 5 rounds?
Aaron Fitt
1:40
I think he's got a shot to go toward the back of the five-round draft tomorrow night. Great frame and pretty live stuff; he probably could have used a longer season to really boost his stock with scouts since this was his first year at the D1 level, but somebody might have gotten a good enough look at him early in the year to take a shot in round 5 or so.
Drew
1:40
Any changes to your most recent mock?
DSeif
1:40
Yes. I just got off the phone with Nathan Rode from Prep Baseball Report for our 3.0. We will be posting it around 4pm ET. Garrett Mitchell seems to be falling, while Justin Foscue is rising...
Zeb
1:42
Austin Hendrick doesn’t make it past....
DSeif
1:42
Rangers at No. 14.
Andy
1:44
The consensus #1 pick seems to be Torkelson but most outlets have Martin as the best overall player. What's the rational behind Torkelson over Martin?
Aaron Fitt
1:44
Martin is a better athlete with more speed and more defensive value, but Tork's power is the best in the draft, and you can make a case that his hit tool is also the best in the draft (though Martin has a case for that as well). Ultimately, premium power is just so valuable, and Torkelson is a can't-miss slugger who I think has a chance to win homer titles and also batting titles. Sure, he's just a first baseman -- but if he's a potential batting champ and home run champ, then you're talking about Miguel Cabrera kind of value. That's pretty special.
Ian
1:48
Which starting arms that get drafted tonight have the quickest path to the big leagues?
DSeif
1:48
In a starting role, I'd go with Reid Detmers. Max Meyer is a starter, but could be used as a reliever with most any club if there is a post-season in 2020, same goes for Garrett Crochet and Clayton Beeter.
Toan
1:50
Do you know the draft status of both Kevin Abel and Christian Chamberlain? Is there a good chance both of them could get drafted and sign or miss out and go back to Oregon State? I’m a Beavers fan so it’s interesting to find out.
Aaron Fitt
1:50
We've got Chamberlain valued as about a third or fourth-rounder, and I think he impressed scouts enough in the short season that he's likely to be picked tomorrow and sign. He certainly answered any of my questions about whether he can start, despite his small size -- his stuff is electric, and I was impressed with the way he held his velo in the look I got in Starkville. Abel is one of the big wild cards in this draft; we ran him up into the 30s in our most recent prospect list, which would translate to about round 2. It sounds like he has progressed well in his return from Tommy John surgery, and certainly he proved himself at the highest level of college baseball before his injury. I suspect he's likely to get drafted and sign also, but there's a little more uncertainty around that one since he didn't get a chance to pitch this year.
Mike
1:52
How many rounds will we get back to for the draft?  and do you see to $20K max staying around for those not taken in the draft?
DSeif
1:52
My guess is 20 rounds in 2021. Beyond 2021, my personal preference is 15-20 rounds, but more likely 25 could become the new standard. I do not see $20K sticking as a max.
David
1:57
Do you expect more, less, or the same amount of HS players to be drafted this year than the previous years for rounds 1 thru 5?
DSeif
1:57
I expect a similar amount to be selected in the first round, 10-12 total. But overall less will be taken (total of 47 were taken rounds 1-5 in 2019, 52 in 2018). I'm thinking around 35-40 total in 2020. More prep pitchers will likely go to college due to a very strong college crop of arms who will be preferred this draft by MLB clubs.
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