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D1Baseball's Weekly Chat: May 10
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Sam
2:01
If Oklahoma wins the last two series and plays well in the big12 tournament, any chance they make the postseason?
Kendall Rogers
2:01
Sam -- I Think the Sooners would be in the mix, and they'd probably leapfrog Oklahoma State in that scenario. I actually think OU would be a pretty scary team to face in the postseason with its treasure chest of talented -- but not always productive -- arms.
Mike
2:03
Will the NCAA really punish MS and FL for their trans-gender sports bans when it comes to host locations? Both states combined offer as many as five or six great host schools. Both states offer a potentially higher than average ticket sale volume due to their lack of covid restrictions.
Kendall Rogers
2:03
Remember, this is for TRUE predetermined sites -- not predetermined sites based on merit like the baseball selections are. There's nothing to worry about for these states right now. And frankly, I think they were empty PR threats designed to take heat off the NCAA.
Adam
2:04
Can Miami move up to a 2 seed or are they stuck as a three seed assuming that they even make the field of 64
Aaron Fitt
2:04
I still think the Hurricanes are in the mix for a 2-seed, sure. They're 15-14 in the ACC with two series left vs. Georgia Tech and at Louisville -- those are two more opportunities to record quality wins. If they go 4-2 in those two series, I think they're an easy 2-seed. Even a 3-3 finish gives them a shot.
Guest
2:06
who do you feel will be last 4 teams still in running for host role?
Kendall Rogers
2:06
I think you have your top eights -- and I think Oregon, Stanford, Texas Tech, East Carolina, Louisiana Tech, Florida and Pitt are looking very very good right now. That leaves you with one spot to make it 16 -- and I think that next group consists of Charlotte, Gonzaga, Southern Miss, Ole Miss, Louisville, Florida State, South Carolina.
Burnt Toast
2:06
FSU wins a road series against Top 10 Norte Dame and only raises a single spot? With the way D1 has touted ND all year- you would think that would hold more weight. With a strong end to the year, do you see FSU a host?
Aaron Fitt
2:06
This is one of those where you just have to consider what other teams do too. In a different week if a bunch of teams ahead of FSU stumbled, it would have been easy to vault the Seminoles up. But right now, we've still got FSU behind Pitt and Louisville in the pecking order because both teams are slightly ahead of FSU in the standings, and both teams have the head-to-head edge over the Seminoles, so it's hard to jump Florida State over them. Still, I think winning that road series at Notre Dame gives FSU a real shot to be in the pool of 20 host candidates this week.
Hog Heaven
2:09
Are you guys still high in Jaxon Wiggins as a prospect and an impact pitcher for his next two years at Arkansas? He hasn’t pitched much recently and when he has, he has been wild and unreliable. Us Hog fans were so incredibly excited by his potential at the beginning of the year but Kevin Kopps has stolen all of that thunder. Should we still be excited about the future for Wiggins?
Aaron Fitt
2:09
Oh certainly, it's a huge talent, and his future remains very bright. Sometimes it just takes guys longer to figure it out. As great as Isaiah Campbell was as a fourth-year junior, he was pretty up and down in his career before that, but then he really blossomed into an All-American. I bet Wiggins make a jump earlier than that; I'd expect him to have a big sophomore year next spring.
Brett
2:10
Will there be three CUSA teams in the 20 Host options?
crying 1
Kendall Rogers
2:10
Brett -- I feel pretty confident right now that Charlotte, LA Tech and Southern MIss will be in the group of 20 teams right now.
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Pirate Mo
2:11
I enjoyed the D1B articles on the 1st two days of the Tulane-ECU series. With ECU closing it out Sunday with a series win, do you feel the Pirates are in pretty good shape to host a regional? That was a great series to see in person.
Aaron Fitt
2:11
Yeah it was a very entertaining series. I was back there on Sunday to see how Whisenhunt looked (and I sure was encouraged, because he looked great). The ECU offense is just so good. If Whisenhunt continues on this trajectory, I think the Pirates will be very tough to beat in June with him and Williams fronting the rotation, and a really good bullpen behind them. Feels like this could well be the year they finally break through to Omaha. And yes, I think taking three of four vs. the other top contender in the American has put ECU back in strong hosting position.
Guest
2:13
Stanford have a shot to be a top eight host?
Kendall Rogers
2:13
Guest -- I think whoever wins the Pac 12 regular season title will likely be the top eight seed pick out of that conference. Right now it's anyone's title with Arizona, Oregon and Stanford all in the mix, and even UCLA making some strides as of late.
StagsFan
2:13
Is Fairfield in no matter what happens in MAAC tournament?
Kendall Rogers
2:13
Stags -- I think Fairfield should be in no matter what. Sitting with such a great overall record and a solid RPI (even though RPI means next to nothing in that league), the Stags, IMO, have earned their way into the NCAA tournament.
Aaron Fitt
2:15
I am delighted that my buddy Kendall has seen the light on this one, even if he refuses to allow me to bring the Stags into the Top 25! (Kendall loves when I throw him under the bus in the chat)
Big12Fan
2:14
How do you guys view the Texas/TCU/Tech pecking order for a national seed? Does winning the Big 12 title trump series wins? For example, if TCU wins the regular season by one game over Texas, does that negate the series win Texas just got over TCU and bump the Horned Frogs over the Horns?There’s an argument to be made that all three should get a national seed, but I’m not sure that’s plausible.
Aaron Fitt
2:14
My feeling is winning the regular season title will hold the most weight. I suspect two of the three will be in the top eight. Tech's head-to-head series wins over the other two are loud, but the fact that they're still 4.5 games behind TCU and 3.5 games behind Texas might be too much for them to overcome. My money is on TCU and Texas in the top eight, and Texas Tech as one of the top hosts outside the top eight.
Lance
2:19
Thoughts on LSU and making the field of 64? Also, I'm officially on the Tre Morgan Freshman of the Year hype train. Of course Crews is the sexy name and rightfully so, but Morgan has been just as impressive/important to LSU, plus them 1st base skills are next level elite. He easily saves two or three runs a game with his play.
Kendall Rogers
2:19
Lance -- I think the magic number for LSU is 14 wins. If the Tigers can get to 13 and then win a game in Hoover, I think they will make the NCAA tournament. Even 13 SEC wins could get the Tigers in, but they'd need some help in other conference tournaments with very chalky action. As for Morgan, not surprised at all he's having a great season. He had such a smooth, consistent stroke the day I was there in the fall. Really special player.
Joe
2:20
Is Oxford a potential host site after losing yet another weekend series (1-5 in last 6 weekend series). I know their overall body of work still looks decent, but this team seems to be in a free fall.
Aaron Fitt
2:20
I wouldn't say freefall, but you're right that five series losses in six weeks is tough to overlook. They haven't gotten swept in any of them -- but it's still wild that this team is 14-10 in the SEC despite all those series losses. Losing that series at A&M felt like a back-breaker, with Vandy coming up this weekend -- an opportunity to make a push into the top 16 hosts, but only if they first crack the top 20 preliminary list this week. And feels like they're gonna be sweating that announcement.
FrogballUSA
2:20
With TCU’s loss to Texas, and injuries to Gene Wood and Hunter Wolfe as well as rotation issues, how worried should frog fans be? Do you still like our chances to be a top 8 seed and make it to Omaha?
Kendall Rogers
2:20
Frog -- Certainly, it seems like those two guys might be out for a bit with those injuries, from what sources are telling me. That really hurts. But most importantly, the Frogs need to figure out the No. 3 spot in the rotation. Johnny Ray was just bad in the series finale against Texas. Personally, I like the idea of a guy like Chuck King being in that Sunday role.
Heel
2:24
With UNC clearly not being on their usual level this season, is there reason to believe the young talent on the roster will elevate the team next year? Or is this a situation where the Heels need some freshmen to come in and make an impact next season?
Aaron Fitt
2:24
I will say that I've been surprised how much Mac Horvath and Max Carlson have struggled this year, and the way Johnny Castagnozzi tailed off after a tough start. Those three guys are a key part of the foundation for UNC, so how they develop going forward will be critical. There are some other interesting building blocks in that big freshman class, but I do think UNC needs to continue to upgrade the overall talent level on the roster, and I know they're hard at work on that. Scott Forbes has a long track record as an accomplished recruiter, he's reeled in his share of high-end talent over the years.
JEL
2:25
Strong weekend for UC Irvine. Are Eaters in the mix to host Regional?
Kendall Rogers
2:25
JEL -- UC Irvine has a shot to be in the group of 20, although I think a team like UCLA in California would get the edge over the Anteaters. WTS -- I'm really impressed with what UCI has done in the Big West. UCSB is a solid club and UCI shut it down, led by Michael Frias. UCI has two seed at UCLA/Oregon/Texas/Arizona/Stanford written all over it.
Grayson G
2:25
What does Baylor need to do to get themselves in contention to be a top 16 seed? The Bears are 16-4 in its last 20 and inching closer and closer to top 30 in the RPI.
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Aaron Fitt
2:25
I just think Baylor's surge came too late. They're still just 9-9 in the Big 12, and I don't think that's gonna be good enough to get them in that top 20 pool this week, which means it doesn't matter how they finish over the next two or three weeks, they won't be able to break into the final top 16 hosts.
Jack
2:25
Do you know if Charlotte put in a bid to host?
Kendall Rogers
2:25
Jack -- they did, and I think they've got a pretty decent shot to be in the Top 16 -- I would be surprised at this point if Charlotte is not in the Top 20. WTS -- If you put Charlotte in the Top 16, the NCAA can kill two birds with one stone by sending South Carolina to Charlotte as the 2.
Kyle Niblett
2:27
Does Tennessee moving to 100% capacity change your prediction for their series against Arkansas? Does it change the NCAA's mind that so many are going to 100%?
Kendall Rogers
2:27
I still think Arkansas wins that series no matter what. And I don't think the NCAA will change its opinion on capacities, but it should, IMO. There are plenty of sporting events right now that have been 100 percent capacity with zero reports of COVID spread, unless I'm missing something that would be headline news on the national news networks. I say let's go to 100%, or at least somewhat close to it.
MACAttack
2:28
With the Central vs. Ball State series being a split. What are the chances if they both finish with 40 wins they both make the NCAA tourney? CMU a series win at West Virginia, BSU at UK and a split at Arizona. Hard to think they both aren’t better than a fourth big ten team making it, right?
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