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D1Baseball's Weekly Chat: May 10
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Aaron Fitt
2:28
Interesting notion there -- you make some good points. I can't recall the MAC ever getting an at-large team, so history is against it happening, but maybe this is the year. Both teams do feel like worthy postseason teams to me. We'll see how the committee views it, and if they relax their usual RPI guidelines this year.
Anthony
2:31
Did this weekend help or hurt Georgia? What is the magic number of wins they need in conference?
Kendall Rogers
2:31
Anthony -- Status quo. I still think Georgia needs to get to 13-14 conference wins total to make the NCAA tournament. Those marks are within striking distance, too, heading into the final two weekends. UGA would be pretty dangerous in the postseason, IMO.
LATechReport
2:32
Does LA Tech get hurt in the regional hosting discussion by the two canceled games at FIU?
Kendall Rogers
2:32
I'm status quo on Louisiana Tech. The fewer games they play against inferior RPI teams, the better. I still think LT is a host right now. Solid overall resume, and it played and won some very good non-conference games. Something that a team like Charlotte can't say.
cool 2
Ethan
2:33
How much has your perception of Texas changed since the beginning of the year with the emergence of Pete Hansen as a Sunday starter and Melendez coming on as a hitter?
Kendall Rogers
2:33
Ethan -- My perception is still pretty much the same, outside of feeling better about the offense and the clutch factor involved with this team. Pete Hansen has been a game-changer in the Sunday role, but I think the Texas offense actually has a few scary hitters, and I think the mental makeup/maturity of this team is very, very impressive. They can easily shake off losses, and that tells me a lot about this team/program mindset.
cool 1
Eric
2:38
Who are your top 8 seeds right now? How likely is it the Big XII gets two top 8 seeds? With three teams in the top 10, and two teams in the top 5 RPI, I feel like Texas and TCU, barring major slip-ups, are both shoe-ins for top 8 seeds, right?
cool 1
Kendall Rogers
2:38
For me right now: Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Notre Dame, Texas, TCU, Tennessee and Oregon/Arizona.
Regine_McClain
2:40
Does ECU's 3-1 series win solidify its hosting resume? And what does Tulane need to do next three weeks to get in NCAAs? Would 6-2 and making the finals of AAC tourney likely be enough?
Kendall Rogers
2:40
Regine -- I think ECU is pretty much locked into a Top 16 at this point, barring some nasty collapse to end the regular season followed by a poor showing in the conference tournament. As for Tulane, the Green Wave actually improved their RPI to 57 over the weekend, and just sitting a half game out of first place in the AAC, I think it's still in the tourney field.
Will C
2:42
New subscriber. Love the work you guys do! Can you explain Stanford's turnaround from last year's shortened season to this year? Also, what will the top 4 in the Pac-12 look like at the end of the season?
Aaron Fitt
2:42
Thanks for subscribing and for the kind words! With Stanford, I think a big part of it is that some of their key veteran guys just got off to cripplingly bad starts last year, and this year they've been performing much closer to their full potential (particularly Tim Tawa, Christian Robinson and Nick Brueser). Felt like that team just got off to a brutal start and everything snowballed, but the way they've regrouped -- without having fall ball, mind you -- is one of the incredible turnaround stories in college baseball this year. Good question on the Pac-12 top four; feels like it's gonna come down to the wire.
Guest
2:43
Can Nevada get an at large bid?
Kendall Rogers
2:43
Guest -- TJ Bruce's club is trending the right direction, that's for dang sure. They've won eight-straight games, are just a half-game out of first place and the RPI is up to 40. In other words, if they finish the regular season strong, I could see them squeaking in as an at-large. But a program like Nevada will need to leave no doubt.
JFK
2:45
Do you see any team from the Big 10 hosting a regional? I also wonder where you think the Huskers might land? Are they a lock as a possible two or three seed?
Kendall Rogers
2:45
JFK -- Naturally, you would just say Indiana, but the Hoosiers did not bid to host a regional. I think Michigan is squarely in the mix, though. Do I expect Michigan to be in the Top 20? Probably not -- but we will see.
Kyle Niblett
2:46
Who is your pick to win the SEC? Six games left and I feel the magic number is 21. Tennessee & Arkansas are tied for the lead but have the toughest remaining schedules of the big four. Vandy is half a game back and State is a game back, but owns the easiest remaining schedule.
Aaron Fitt
2:46
Yeah it's gonna be quite a race, Nibs. It's hard to bet against Arkansas because they've given us zero reason to doubt them over the course of the long season, but you're right that the schedule is challenging (at Tennessee, vs. Florida). I still feel like Arkansas can go 4-2 in those series to get to 21-9, but is that enough to win it? If Mississippi State goes 5-1 in series vs. Mizzou and at Alabama, it winds up tied with Arkansas in that scenario, and the Hogs have the head-to-head edge for seeding purposes. And I have a feeling Ole Miss can rally this weekend so I'm not betting on Vandy to pass Arkansas. Long answer short: I'm still betting on the Hogs, because I think they win that series in Knoxville.
Mason Osborne
2:48
How do yall feel about Southern Miss hosting or getting a #2 seed?
Kendall Rogers
2:48
Mason -- I think Southern Miss is squarely in the mix for a host site, and it would not surprise me what so ever to see USM listed as one of the Top 20 teams to watch leading up to that important Sunday, where host sites are announced. At worst -- USM is a two-seed somewhere.
Sparky
2:48
It’s extremely hard as a Sun Devils fan to not wonder “what if” with injuries to our top 3 pitchers. That being said, with RPI Boosting opportunities coming up against Nevada and 2 huge series against OSU and UCLA, is there a path to the Devils hosting? Let’s say they win those 2 series? Would they be a host?
Aaron Fitt
2:48
In a normal year, there might be a path there -- but this year ASU hasn't done enough to get inside the top 20 this week, which means it won't have a chance to play its way into the top 16 over the final two weeks. But I really think Tracy Smith and his fine coaching staff deserve a ton of credit for holding that thing together with all those injuries -- and obviously the players deserve a ton of credit too. They've shown so much resilience this year, seems like a really neat group of kids.
Hoid
2:49
What does South Carolina have to do to avoid falling out of the postseason? Does 14-16 keep them in?
Kendall Rogers
2:49
If the Gamecocks can get to 14 wins, which is extremely likely, I think they will make the field. The incredibly high RPI helps, too.
Scott
2:52
With two SEC series left, who are your top 3 candidates for Player of the Year?
Aaron Fitt
2:52
Amazing how wide open this race is; I don't know that there's a clear front-runner. My top three, based on conference-only stats: Liam Spence (high performer at a premium position and the guy that makes Tennessee go), Tanner Allen (SEC leader in batting and OPS), and Will Frizzell (big power numbers got a big boost this weekend -- but he's probably hurt by his team's record). Jud Fabian, Ryan Bliss, maybe Carter Young would also be in the mix for me.
Guest
2:54
Is Ull ragin Cajuns going make the NCAA tournament??
Kendall Rogers
2:54
Not going to happen this year without winning the conference tournament. The Cajuns were in good shape for a while, but the overall/conference records aren't good and the RPI is higher than 100. Will need to win the conference tournament.
BigFan
2:56
Is there a legitimate possibility Kevin Kopps could win pitcher of the year? Or is everyone completely blinded by Rocker, and Lieter?
Aaron Fitt
2:56
I don't think it's a matter of being blinded; the fact is starting pitchers just throw a lot more innings than relievers, which means they typically provide more value. Rocker leads the SEC with 51 innings in conference play, and he leads with 76 strikeouts, but the ERA (3.35 in conference) isn't so low to make him a runaway choice, and Leiter's recent stumbles have probably put him behind Rocker in my pecking order. So can Kopps get it? He has pitched a ton of innings for a bullpen guy, and I would argue that he is the most important player for the best team in college baseball. I usually always lean toward starters over relievers just because of the workload element, but this year I do think Kopps has a chance, because his numbers are just absurd. He is the SEC ERA leader (0.45), and he's pitched enough innings to qualify for the ERA crown even as a reliever. Heck, he's got a very real shot at this thing.
BK
2:57
So typically, Tech is a no-show in OKC for the Big 12 tournament. But it’s obviously different this year. Are their Top 8 hopes primarily tied to their performance in the conference tournament? Or is there another way to a Top 8?
Kendall Rogers
2:57
BK -- Right now, the only thing holding Texas Tech back from a Top 8 is being a few games behind TCU and Texas in the league standings since it has the H2H against both teams. WTS -- if it can win its final two series and play well in OKC, a top eight is absolutely on the table. I think the Big 12 gets two national seeds out of the three teams. My order would be Texas-TCU-Texas Tech ... for now.
BMand 24
2:58
I really liked the way FSU looked this weekend, especially the pitching.  It seems like Meat has finally been able to establish some kind of pecking order in the bullpen and it made a difference.  What do you think the ceiling is for this year's team?
Aaron Fitt
2:58
Yeah I'm with you -- that's the best pitching staff in the ACC, and it feels to me like one of the few legitimate Omaha-caliber pitching staffs out there, with both workhorse starters and quality bullpen pieces to mix and match with. The lineup has its flaws, but I think the pitching is real, and everything seems to be peaking at the right time. Right now, I think Florida State is the ACC team with the best chance to make it to Omaha.
SEC Fan
2:58
Do you see any way that the SEC has less than 4 National Seeds?
Kendall Rogers
2:58
SEC -- as strange as it sounds, I think the SEC is pretty much locked in to four national seeds, unless someone not Arkansas tanks and someone like Texas Tech out of the Big 12 goes on an insane run down the stretch.
Nate
3:00
How crazy is it that Georgia Tech scuffled for an entire month and still lead their division and are second in the league?
Aaron Fitt
3:00
It really is crazy; the ACC is just bizarre this year. Tech loses a series to Kennesaw State last week, then bounces back and sweeps a Clemson team that was coming off a sweep of Louisville. I mean, what? Georgia Tech had lost four of its last five series heading into this weekend, and yet somehow they're 18-12 in the league. I just don't get any of it.
JayPak
3:00
Not sure I get the love for Nebraska as a 2 seed or even an at-large team.  With today's win over Rutgers, the RPI, ELO, and ISR are in the high 60's.  What do the pundits like about the Huskers?
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