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D1Softball Weekly Chat: March 28
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Jason
3:32
Were you as surprised to see Baylor coming oh so close to beating Oklahoma yesterday as I was?
Tara Henry
3:38
Yes. Baylor should have won that game. Our friends at 6-4-3 Charts detailed the win probability and the three-run shot by Jennings swung the probability by 81%.
 
For reference, “The 643 win probability model leverages our historical data to review key events in games. In a cohesive visual, users can see how each event impacts the win probability of a given game”
 
What does that mean? OU had no business beating Baylor but if you give an elite team an extra out, they are going to capitalize. With an extra swing, Kinzie Hansen was able to get on base and the Sooners went on a two-out rally. Yet, if Orme can hold down the offense for almost a full game, there is no reason a combination of Kelly Maxwell / Elish or Dolcini can't do the same.
Eric Simmons
3:42
What is wrong with Arizona? How are they getting so terrible so suddenly?
Brady Vernon
3:42
Arizona’s struggles are a combination of a lot of things. I’ll say that one thing, however, too many people were way too HIGH on the Wildcats coming into the season because they’re Arizona and coming off a WCWS appearance. Arizona lost most of its major contributors from 2021 like Dejah Mulipola, Jessie Harper, Alyssa Palomino-Cardoza, which you don’t just replace overnight. Most of the Wildcat starters are freshman and sophomore, who haven’t played a ton of collegiate softball. It also can’t be overstated, Caitlin Lowe stepped into the biggest shoes ever to fill, and while she was the best positioned to take over for Mike Candrea, that’s not a figure that is exactly replaceable. Arizona has also dealt with injuries to Janelle Meoño and Sophia Carroll, as well as Hanah Bowen in and out of the circle. The entire team is going through a learning curve with a first-year head coach. The young pitchers have struggled, and if Arizona would have a chance to do it again, I’d probably believe they’d try to grab a more
Kevin
3:43
I'm curious when you guys will do your 1st bracketology for the season. I definitely excited to see how you guys will stack the field of 64 this year.
Brady Vernon
3:43
We are planning on releasing our first bracketology next week!
Guest
3:43
Thoughts on the Sun Devils?
Brady Vernon
3:44
Arizona State has been impressive. Trisha Ford’s team is very young and I think had to grow up a bit in the non-conference slate as we saw with a few disappointing losses. If I told you that Jazmine Hill had the fifth highest average on the team and Makenna Harper barely had an average over .200 you’d probably think ASU was in trouble. But they’ve shown that they’re becoming a well-rounded team that seems to really enjoy playing with one another. Yanni Acuña’s crazy breakout season and Cydney Sanders wasting no time in becoming a star have a lot to do with it. Nevertheless, Arizona State is succeeding in the circle like it hasn’t since its 2018 WCWS run. The addition of Mac Morgan and Marissa Schuld have been incredible for the Sun Devils pitching as the two work well off one another. Throw in Lindsay Lopez and her devastating changeup, all seems to be clicking. As of right now ASU looks like it can host another regional but I’m very interested to see how they do with road series at Oregon and Washington.
Steven
3:46
How did Florida only fall one spot after losing 2 of 3 at home? Those 2 they lost were not even close and it snapped their 11 series win streak
Brady Vernon
3:46
In hindsight, Florida dropping one spot doesn’t make a ton of sense. However, Duke, a team the Gators beat, lost its only game of the week by a good amount, so we can’t send them up. An argument can be made for Oklahoma State and Arkansas as well. But its sweeping Texas Tech shouldn’t move the Cowgirls up three spots. As for Arkansas, if its series ended on Sunday and the Hogs had beaten LSU 2 out of 3, they’d probably move up but those late SEC series always make this a little tricky. I think of the rankings in tiers a lot, I see Florida, Duke, Arkansas, Oklahoma State all in one tier and very interchangeable but believe the Gators have the highest ceiling of the bunch.
Anna
3:48
What’s your thoughts on Ole Miss sweeping Mizzou this weekend
Tara Henry
3:53
Well, our entire staff picked Missouri to take that series and we were all very surprised to see Ole Miss sweep. Mizzou going 3-8 in their last 11 games, including a loss to Ball State at home, dropped them out of the Top 25. They will have to make their way back over the next couple of weeks. It's interesting how quickly things change as the Tigers looked to be on the upswing after a successful third week at the Mary Nutter Classic. The win over Oregon was followed by an emphatic run-rule victory over Washington   However, they have struggled in the circle ever since. re: Ole Miss The Rebels will give some teams trouble in the SEC and we wouldn't expect anything less. It just means more, ya know?
trophy 1
Guest
4:12
Can Boise State host a Regional if they dominate the Mountain West?
Brady Vernon
4:12
I don’t see a path for Boise State to host. Historically it takes a lot for a non Power Five to host. In our latest RPI, the Broncos check in at 48. Over the past three years, I believe the lowest numbered RPI for a team was around 20. Boise State’s RPI likely won’t rise up that high because teams like UNLV (80) and San Diego State (83) aren’t that high either. Best case and most likely situation for Boise State if it were to make the postseason is to be a two-seed likely at a Pac-12 school.
Captain Crunch
4:17
What in the world is up With Washington? They are 1-5 in Pac 12 Play
Tara Henry
4:18
I think we were all scratching our heads after they dropped the first series to Cal. The Huskies have now lost four games in a row and will travel to Tucson to face an Arizona squad in a very similar position. It's a rare year in the Pac-12 when Washington and Arizona are at the bottom heading into the third weekend.    Gabbie hasn't been as sharp as we've seen in the past and UW is collectively a very young squad. Sami Reynolds is not only missing in terms of offensive production but her leadership is greatly missed on the field. This weekend is a must-win series for both teams.
Captain Crunch
4:27
How many teams do you think will host Regionals in the SEC? I would say 4 or 5
Tara Henry
4:34
Four is a safe bet. Right now we are looking at Alabama, Tennessee, and Florida. Auburn, Kentucky and Arkansas on the fringe. That can all change by next weekend with the way things are going in the SEC. With just 16 host sites the ACC is a conference to keep an eye on with FSU, Virginia Tech, Duke, and Clemson.
That's it for the week! Thank you!
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