JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/11/16

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Dan Szymborski

12:36

Well, not the whole thing.

digital dandie

12:36

was it too hot to have a chat last week?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

I was out most of Monday morning and early afternoon.

RotoLando

12:36

Who is your current favorite catcher?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

Tuffy Gosewisch is an amazing catcher name.

The Cincinnati Kid

12:36

Does ZiPs project Quality Starts as well? Can this info be found publicly anywhere?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

No.

Bork

12:37

Most interesting thing to come out of the Chris Correa saga is that he found Cardinals data on the Houston servers. I wonder if there's more 'hacking' going on beyond using old passwords to access info.

Dan Szymborski

12:37

I want to see information, not Correa's claims.

Tom

12:38

In general terms hitters slash 30-50 points higher at home than on the road. Has anybody figured out what percentage of that is due to run prevention being better at home vs hitters hitting better at home?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

I don't think you can easily separate the why.

Sirras

12:38

Eno dubbed the Mets' depth-heavy approach the antithesis of stars-and-scrubs. Do you have a preference between stars-and-scrubs and depth-heavy teams in general?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

I have no preference. Didn't I answer this above?

Zoilo

12:39

Rays don't have a catcher or any money. How about Lucroy for some combination of Guerreri/Honeywell/Faria/Bauers?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

I think Lucroy's a better fit on a better team.

John N. Braca III

12:39

Have you (or anyone else, for that matter) done work to investigate any average accuracy differentials between ZiPS and other projection systems?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

There are always scattered pieces that you can find.

I don't write any myself, because obvious COI

Fred

12:40

Do the Jays have enough to contend for the AL East once again?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

Yes, because there aren't really any really good teams in the AL

Los

12:40

Rank in order of which is more predictive of team quality: 16 NFL games, 16 NBA games, 16 NHL games, 16 MLB games?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

NFL, NBA, MLB, not enough of a knowledgebase for NHL

Q-Ball

12:40

Passan thinks MLB should lower the boom on the Cards for hackgate. At a minimum, I have a hard time seeing them eligible for competitive balance picks when it appears they were doing their own competitive balancing. What say you?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

I just want any penalty to be done by a fair process.

Los

12:41

Help me...I can't stop reading Sean Penn!

Dan Szymborski

12:41

It's like a trainwreck

Bork

12:41

If you were the Jays, who would you stretch out as a starter this year, Aaron Sanchez or Roberto Osuna?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

Sanchez

Steve-O

12:42

You must pick one, what player from Major League do you want on your team? Roger Dorn, right?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

Clu Haywood

12:42

In 5 years, will ZIPS be friendlier to Benintendi or Swanson?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

Ask me in 5 years

Yannick

12:42

Do you like the Jays in the AL East? Or are the Bosox the team to beat?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

I think the division is close enough that The Field is the team to beat.

(I'm saving offtopics for the lightning round)

RotoLando

12:43

Is it impossible to write an article about Lucius Fox without making a Batman joke, pun or reference?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

hey

12:43

What does ZiPs project the winning lottery numbers to be?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

I'm not splitting my billion with you.

RotoLando

12:44

What do you think Lando did after Return of the Jedi?

Mat

9 years ago

Does a $19 Puig in an NL only league seem like good value this year?

Eric

9 years ago

Assuming $260 cap, yeah, I think that is a pretty good value.

Zach

9 years ago

What do you think Joe Ross' upside is?

Matt Damon

9 years ago

MATT. DAMON.

Eric

9 years ago

Do you think Ketel Marte can be a top 12 SS?

mtsw

9 years ago

What feature do you feel like OOTP could most improve on? It still feels curiously incomplete for a game that's been around forever.

mtsw

9 years ago

Are we still at a point where the Orioles would probably give Chris Davis the 7/150 they reportedly offered or has the market for him (and Upton/Cespedes) deteriorated enough that they'd try and talk Boras down to a more reasonable contract?

nickh93

9 years ago

What are your thoughts on a pair of 2nd year lefties. Eddy Rodriguez for Boston and Carlos Rondon for Chicago

JBoyle

9 years ago

Are the Mets squandering this year of cheap, overpowering starting pitching by not adding another formidable bat/Bullpen arm? They seem so close to being a complete roster.

Bork

9 years ago

What kind of payday do you think Bautista and EE are going to be receiving?

Ctwink

9 years ago

The ZIPS projection for the Twins looks pretty bad on the pitching side and management has been sitting on their hands all winter. Should I be concerned that MN is due for a major drop off after doing surprisingly well last season?

Michael

9 years ago

Hey Dan - how does ZIPS feel about Ender Inciarte?

MikeMilligan

9 years ago

So now that the Dodgers have a surplus of starters does it make sense to package one with prospects in a deal for a high end bullpen arm ? Is it legal to trade Anderson ?

Phil

9 years ago

Valuewise; Dickey and Thole for Melancon and Stewart? Close in value?

Scott

9 years ago

Do you think Cespedes and/or Upton settle for 1 year deals?

josh

9 years ago

can LA clear up their OF log jam w/o trading Puig or cutting Guerro

The Cincinnati Kid

9 years ago

Is there a projected stat in Zips that you feel is close to 100% accurate; is there another that you feel like you haven't quite cracked?

Matt

9 years ago

In a dynasty league, I traded Abreu for Grienke (equal contracts) and also gave up Grandal as a minor leaguer, and a #15 minor league draft pick and got back a #10 minor league pick. I have Hosmer as a 1B now, and my rotation is Waino, Greinke, Stroman, McCullers, Ventura. Did I do good?

John

9 years ago

How do you think Cespy and Upton markets play out?

Zach

9 years ago

Hey Dan, what do you think Joe Ross' upside is?

Cruz

9 years ago

Tommy Pham....underrated dynasty asset?

Jake

9 years ago

Hi Dan, thanks as always for your time. What the hell is going on with Upton? This isn't Kendrys Morales here

NCAA argument

9 years ago

You explicitly agreed to give up your rights for money in exchange for program where you get food, shelter, and education while learning a trade while following certain rules. If you don't agree with that exchange, you can go play in the minors/Canadian football league/D or Euro League for money.

Scott Bakula

9 years ago

did someone say quantum leap?

Sirras

9 years ago

Mets need a bullpen piece, or so it seems. Are there any deals you think the Mets still should make at this juncture? If they weren't in on Oh, seems like an odd choice.

Joe

9 years ago

Where do you see J. Upton signing with ? And how much ?

The Cincinnati Kid

9 years ago

When some of these FAs start signing (and getting rid of the logjam), do you think we'll start seeing a few more trades or are we basically done with mid/major level names until July?

RotoLando

9 years ago

Can Mikie Mahtook be a decent 4th OF this year, and maybe work his way up to OF3?

Alex

9 years ago

Degrom or Harvey ?

Tommy

9 years ago

Which is the hardest for Zips to accurately measure: grit, 5 tools, pluck, or looking like a baseball player?

Matt

9 years ago

Benintendi for Teheran...Who says no?

Chass

9 years ago

Gun to your head because YOU'RE A FILTHY NERDY TWITTERER WHO DONT KNOW BOUT BASEBALL BACK IN MY DAY YOU WOULDNT LAST A DAY IN MY DAY WITH US OLD BASEBALL GENIUSES WHO DONT NEED NO NEW AGE LASERSABERNERDS.

John N. Braca III

9 years ago

What do the Jays do with Osuna now?

Gary

9 years ago

The Mets ZIPs projections look really good!

Man In White

9 years ago

Favorite in the AL East in your opinion: Red Sox or Jays?

Mark

9 years ago

Have Zips for Seung Hwan Oh aka The Stone Buddha aka The Final Boss?

Nick

9 years ago

So the Royals will sign Kennedy?

Julio Pepper

9 years ago

Who's decent first, the Phillies or Braves?

Scott Bakula

9 years ago

shouldn't mike piazza's nickname have been "supreme"? i feel like that writes itself but it never caught on.

Jeet

9 years ago

Hey Dan why does it seem that everyone is depressing expectations on Schwarber this year? Do you think he will have a sophomore slump or can we expect 30-35 HRs with a 260/270 BA?

Money

9 years ago

How is Kennedy not better than Gallardo? And the difference between him and Chen is negligible at most

TKDC

9 years ago

Is giving token votes to guys like Mike Sweeney better, worse, or the same as filling in fewer than 10 names?

Steve-O

9 years ago

I think ESPN/MLB has ruined Opening Day with Sunday games. WTF is going on there?

Caveman Jones

9 years ago

Who do you think is the most likely to win the AL East?

Tim O.

9 years ago

If you and Alderson switched jobs - would you rather have De Aza, Walker, Cabrera as currently constructed I (with Flores as backup and Herrera in minors) or Span and O'Day for 3 years each (with Niese on team, Flores at SS, and Herrera at 2nd)?

RotoLando

9 years ago

Did you do the Padres ZiPS already? What's the projection for Jabari Blash?

9 years ago

What caliber of SP could Brett Gardner actual return in a trade?

cmg8462

9 years ago

Anything specific you look at when finalizing a teams ZiPS? Or at the point you publish are you already familiar with the nuances of the key players on each team?

Gus

9 years ago

Give me an AL Cy Young sleeper candidate

Tim O.

9 years ago

Is Rey Luke's Daughter? Leia's daughter? or Obi Wan's daughter?

jtt

9 years ago

Considering how short the average job tenure is for a team GM, why does anyone stockpile prospects anymore? I'd go for it, trade everybody. if you don't win in 3 years you're probably going to get shitcanned anyway. Not saying its the right way to build a team but I'm trying to keep a job here...

Tim O.

9 years ago

Where in the projections would I find TWTW? (the will to win) or even wTWTW?

TimeMachineInTheShop

9 years ago

Quick! Who's winning the 2020 World Series?

jeff

9 years ago

When using these tools to project a players upcoming season, how much does ballpark, and roster alignment factor into projecting a player?

Tim O.

9 years ago

GREEDY!? ZiPS clearly isn't factoring in his grandfather.

Biscuit

9 years ago

Does Brandon Nimmo figure in the Mets plans this year? What do you think his near and longterm impact will be?

TKDC

9 years ago

We know Bonds and Clemens are being punished for being associated with PEDs, but is it possible some other guys, like Bagwell, are being punished for different, equally (or more) stupid reasons?

DAMN!

9 years ago

Dan Szymborski: *I'm* probably in the top third of coolness among writers

Joe

9 years ago

Mark Melancon for Brett Anderson, straight up (with some potential salary adjusting moves added in)? Thoughts?

Guest

9 years ago

Can Edgar help Zunino stop hacking at everything?

Matt

9 years ago

If you had a time machine, what would be more important for you to do first - travel through time to the end of spring training so baseball season would start, or travel ahead to Wednesday to find out the winning powerball numbers?

Curtis

9 years ago

Any thoughts on Corey Knebel?

Jimmy

9 years ago

Over under how many dodgers SPs miss at least one start due to injury? 4/5/6/a lot?

Curtis

9 years ago

can Tylor Duffey stick in the Minnesota rotation?

mtsw

9 years ago

Think Tetsuto Yamada would get the full $20M posting fee if he were posted today, or does "Japanese infielder" still freak people out too much? If you were a GM would you roll the dice?

TommyLasordid

9 years ago

NL West test: Rank the six new starters in order for career value going forward: Greinke, Miller, Cueto, Shark, Kazmir, Maeta.

Isaac

9 years ago

Does Bautista post elite numbers once again in 2016? Age getting up there, but showing no signs of slowing down. Is another 35 HR 100 RBI season feasible with upwards of 95/100 BB's?

Julio Pepper

9 years ago

Do you think we've seen Francisco Lindor's best offensive season?

Ringo

9 years ago

Lester Bangs would be proud of you Dan.

mtsw

9 years ago

Speaking of weird stats, Adrian Beltre was worth over 5 runs in UBR (non steals, non DP baserunning metric) in 2015. No one else is above 4.3. Can one not predict baseball or what?

Mark

9 years ago

ZiPs projection your Grandson to get 3 WAR?

Ryan

9 years ago

Do you ever do an estimate to actual on ZiPS? Just wondering how accurate or inaccurate ZiPS has been over the last few years.

Matt

9 years ago

I was looking at Chipper Jones' career numbers the other day...Will there ever be another switch hitter like him? He basically had two separate peaks nearly ten years apart. Had he not been injured so frequently in the early 2000s he would have been a .300/.400/.500 (which he was anyway) guy with 500 home runs. If anyone should get 100% on the first ballot it's him, right?

Ringo

9 years ago

Slew

9 years ago

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CYcm1NbWkAA6FIS.jpg

Sean

9 years ago

If you could find someone to work with you and program ZiPS into something cleaner (more efficient?), would you do it?

Bork

9 years ago

Come on man ZiPS should be done using visual basic in excel.

Slew

9 years ago

What should the Indians do this offseason? Or is it too late?

mtsw

9 years ago

What do you think is a fair back-of-the-envelope adjustment to make to confirmed steroids' guys numbers when considering their place in history or HoF? I think "throw out their two best age 30+ seasons" seems pretty fair given what we know about the efficacy of available PEDs. Or should there be no adjustment applied to their stats at all?

Sean

9 years ago

As soon as next year, does your gut say Carlos Rodon's command and control will improve enough to be a long term #2/3 starter?

Bork

9 years ago

There's enough nerds on FG that would do the ZiPS program just to have access to the ZiPS early.

9 years ago

I couldn't find the ZIPS for Inciarte. Will we get an update?

Matt

9 years ago

Who is David Bowtie any way?

Matt

9 years ago

Have you ever thought of renaming ZiPS to BuTTONS?

Matt

9 years ago

Roy Oswalt isn't that funny.

Eric

9 years ago

If the Dodgers run relatively strict platoons at 2B (Hernandez, Utley) and LF (Ethier, Van Slyke), can your ZiPS splits tell us what combined production to expect from those spots?

Matt

9 years ago

Over the last year the Braves have acquired some of the best names in baseball. Rank these Braves acquisitions/players by name awesomeness: Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies, Touki Toussaint, Sean Newcomb, Ender Inciarte, Mallex Smith. Go!

joe

9 years ago

Eiland may have gotten volquez to not suck, but one could argue he did the opposite for AJ burnett

Guest

9 years ago

What six parks are they?

mtsw

9 years ago

What reaction would you predict from the public if the NCAA football players in the national championship game went on strike to demand college athletes be paid?

Kylo Ren

9 years ago

Is the MLB logo left handed or right handed?

Pete

9 years ago

Odds than any current player is bribing umpires on personal dirt like Lenny Dykstra did?

Kylo Ren

9 years ago

lol

9 years ago

All about that base

9 years ago

Who do you think is Rey's father?

TKDC

9 years ago

Yes, but there is no reason to like one and hate the other. It would be like if you like sirloin and hate rib eye.

Lawrence

9 years ago

you the man rock on!!!

Lawrence

9 years ago

ooooooh non baseball!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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