JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/11/24

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Dan Szymborski

12:02

And we are here!

James

12:02

You never win trading away Juan Soto. That said, Preller must be thrilled with his haul right now given how the SP FA market has been shaking out, no?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Yeah, though I'm not thinking much of Padres in 2024; that's still a lot of performance to replace and they kinda needed pitching *now*

Laxtonto

12:03

Does it seem like this offseason is moving slow on the FA front? Or is it just perception of the long offseason?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

I dont' think slower than usual. One thing is that there just aren't many very good position players ou thtere

Been really lite on stars

Laxtonto

12:03

Should I let the 3 year old go outside and build a snowman or stay inside and make hot chocolate?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Build a snowman AND hot chocolate after

aunt bea

12:03

happy birthday bethany this is aunt bea Claudine said i can wish you happy birthday in your Facebook is this it hope it works… kisses -aunt “bea” (Beatrice Gerbell)

Dan Szymborski

12:03

I don't quite get the joke, but ok!

Barold Bondsworth

12:03

Dan, can you please reassure me that the Giants don't plan on going into the season with a rotation of Logan Webb, Ross Stripling, and three rookies? I feel like I'm losing my mind

Dan Szymborski

12:04

I suspect they'll make a low key signing.

12:05

Maybe just one. Might depend on how optimistic they feel about Cobb and Ray health

Jacstorm

12:05

Any thoughts on what Brenton Doyle will produce this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

Not much offense, tons of defense?

The Q

12:06

How are you viewing Brayan Bello’s future? Only 24 years old. Do you perceive he’s a future #1? Or probably more in the 2/3 mix? See anything in the numbers that suggests what he’ll be not so much in 2024, but 2026?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

I think 2/3 guy is probably the most likely

12:07

He's kind of got that early Eovaldi problem with punching out guys on two strikes

Watashi Wa Ringodesu

12:07

Is it true that there is absolutely zero statistical correlation that has been found between steroids and heightened performance?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

That's a rather loaded question!

12:08

Now, I've spent like 15 years trying to find any pattern of players busted and any group differences in aging pattern/overperformance/underperformance at any point before and after their usage

And I haven't found a dang thing

Guest

12:08

Dan, if you were Mike Elias, other than the obvious ones--Holliday, Rutschman, and Henderson, who would be on your personal no-trade list and why?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

Nobody. You always talk

I am the Apple

12:08

Averaged out over the entire MLB population, what age is the average/median peak? 26?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

The tricky part is that it changes a bit depending on *how* you evaluate peak and which set of players you include

26-27ish is the safest bet though

Richard

12:10

Is there an easy way on Fangraphs player pages to compare pitchers' ERA/FIP to the specific league (PCL, International League) averages? For hitters, we have wRC+. If not, is this something Fangraphs is going to eventually add?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

It *is* weird we don't have that for minor leaguers. I'll bring it up

Padres2024

12:10

Any chance we will get an updated ZIPS projection for the Padres. The first one came out right before their very large roster change! :-) Or, at least an updated Ballpark Graphic?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

We're only a few weeks from the pre-spring zips projected standings!

Dan

12:11

I find myself wanting Betts Ohtani and Freeman to have historic seasons but also the Dodgers are my 5th favorite team in the NL West. Do the Padres, Giants, and Dbacks all have 100 win upside that I can dream on?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

Depends what percentile you're willing to go to! Any plausibly .500 team has at least tiny chance of winning 100

laxtonto

12:11

Cake or pie?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

It depends. I don't like really sweet things. I'll take a not sweet cake over pie, but I'll take pie over anything with, say, American buttercream

Jon

12:13

Yo Dan. Is there a psychology / willingness to learn and adjust factor that changes how players grow or slow a decline over time? Do teams mine for that info?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

There *may* be, but it's really noisy. I don't know what teams are *specifically* doing here as my relationships with teams/agents is always at arms' length.

KrusherKovalev55

12:14

Do you expect a guy like Cole Ragans to be someone who ZIPS is likely undervaluing due to small sample size and large velo bump? The projections on him were somewhat disappointing but I get that he is a weird case. Just wondering what you expect from him this year and hoping the answer is something other than just "see ZIPS!" ha

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I'm really not sure what to expect for him honestly!

I mean, ZiPS knows velocity

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