JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/14/21

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Dan Szymborski

12:43

But a very strong possibility for 2022 to forever

12:44

As this is a very lightly attended chat for technology reasons, feel free to considering this a Lightning Round and ask ANYTHING

Atilla the pun

12:46

Best mascot name for Cleveland?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

Asthma Pimps

Definitely the best neural network thing I've ever done.

12:47

The Ghost of Wade Boggs

12:47

How does the Neural Network work, and why should we believe it's not just you? (NN)

Dan Szymborski

12:47

Q: How does the Neural Network work, and why should we believe it's not just you?

A: The following slide describes how it works, but really, it only demonstrates how much better it works than regular AI! It's so accurate, there's no question it's intelligent.

While the AI could be built using brute force processing, it would require a massive compute farm and millions of dollars of hardware.

Instead, the Neural Network builds upon what AI researchers know about "General Machine Learning." But the key ingredient is something called "Unsupervised Learning," where the network has no prior knowledge of the training data. The input data is simply 1s and 0s. The network "learns" by looking at the rest of the data, rather than trying to manually discover the relationship between each 0 and 1.

If you look at the network representation above, you can see that while all the 1s and 0s look the same, the spacing between them varies depending on the input data. The network will simply "learn" that the spacing looks g

The Ghost of Wade Boggs

12:48

Which is a baseball player name is better: Randy Johnson or Johnny Dickshot?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

The latter since the poor guy got the nickname "Ugly" on top of that!

Mr Bean

12:48

Follow up on Mel Rojas Jr question. If you run ZiPs for him at some point, does that mean he'd be on the DMB software with a projection, or would he never be put on there?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

I probably wouldn't put him on the DMB disk.

Not a Criminal

12:48

what's your social?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

@DSzymborski on twitter and I don't do instagram

12:49

wait, my SS? xxx-xx-xxxx!

Tim

12:49

I’m excited about the Mariners’ young talent. How close are they to competing for the division?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

There's a lot of interest there, but I think it'll be a couple years. Luckily, the Astros/A's have issues of their own so it's not going to be like trying to rebuild in NL West

Martha Stewart

12:50

What's your favorite comfort food?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

My mom's chicken milanese. She makes me a gigantic batch at my birthday every year.

Dan Szymborski’s older brother

12:51

What’s your ideal setup for the MLB postseason (# of teams/# of games)?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

I don't have a brother

two teams, best of 11

12:52

(I didn't say it was the best for MLB profitability)

Brandon

12:52

Is any combination of Mize/Manning/Skubal going to actually be a 1 or 2 starter for the Tigers? Does Zips show any higher upside?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

All three have upside, though sorting through it is going to be a matter of time. I think the Tigers were hurt here not having minor leagues in 2020

When there were struggles, there was nowhere to send guys TO while still having them play baseball.

Ian

12:52

Tatis Jr. extension rumors aside, what do the Padres need to do to shore up their team? Obvious answer is bench and bullpen, but so far it's been pretty quiet on that front. Are Kirby Yates and Jurickson Profar likely to return or maybe the Pads are looking at other versatile pieces like Kiké Hernandez?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

There's really not a lot to do. Depth, maybe an extra reliever if there's a bargain they like.

The weakest spot left is first base, but they're *not* addressing that one!

Matt

12:53

Is Dan actually 3 cats in a trench coat? (Nn)

Dan Szymborski

12:54

Q: Is Dan actually 3 cats in a trench coat?

A: Yes! Dan is so shady, he even owns a trench coat! And trust us, Dan is not wearing one at the moment.

Broken Code

12:54

I WILL NOT ALLOW THIS CHAT TO BE SEEN [Error: Number stored as text]

The Ghost of Wade Boggs

12:55

What is one bias you have about baseball that you have difficulty overcoming?

Dan Szymborski

12:55

I believe every sidearmer/submariner is frigging awesome no matter how much evidence to the contrary.

John

12:55

adley rutschman is pretty cool

Dan Szymborski

12:56

I don't *think* I have a lot of baseball biases. Hopefully a couple decades of trying to be objective has ironed out most of those lumps.

I'm sure in real life I have plenty

re:injuries

12:56

The funniest injury is still Zumaya & Guitar Hero

Edd

12:57

Looking at contract projections for DJLM, it seems the analytically inclined (FG contract projections, Petriello, etc. >80 million) Project DJ to come in quite a bit lower than the rest of writers in the industry, any inkling why and what do you see him coming in at?

Dan Szymborski

12:58

Not sure. I think there's still a general tendency to underrate just how risky aging is for a post-30 player.

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