JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 1/16/25

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 1/16/25

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Dan Szymborski

12:53

and a whole mess of visual basic scripts

mmddyyyy

12:53

If ZiPS took a look at the players on this year's hall of fame ballot, would any of them project well?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

Now? no

Sam

12:53

Has there ever been a ZIPS projection that just fully baffled you where it wasn't some sort of database or calculation error?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

Shane Bieber his breakout year

I prepared to be stabbed after projecting him to be equal with Clayton Kershaw

Guest

12:53

is the offense in zips position based?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

large cohorts of similar players are

Guest

12:54

So is that ramen artificial spicy or artificial chicken?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

It's spicy

though not BULDAK spicy

for SPICY you need

Cat Latos

12:55

What do my cat friends do?

Dan Szymborski

12:55

I have no cats with me at the moment

Last I saw them, Mercutio was aimless wandering in the upstairs hallway

12:56

Cassie was asleep in the empty Chewy box of their cat food that I haven't taken down to the recycling bin

Justinian was hunting one of these weird toys that look like straws they got in their Meowbox a few months ago

and Constantine was asleep in in one of the living room chairs

Steve O

12:56

Would you ever recommend a team go "all in"? Like trade a bunch of prospects, sign relatively bad contracts, etc to win now knowing that if you're a mid 80s win team, you'll probably have a solid shot of making the playoffs. Imagine if the Yankees signed Alex Bregman and traded for Garrett Crochet. They'd be great, but in a few years they could be a disaster.

Dan Szymborski

12:57

It would have to be a very specific situation

Because MLB's playoff structure disincentives going all in

You have to have the OBVIOUS cliff in your near future, like the Royals a couple years after winning the WS

Dave

12:58

Wasn't Altuve listed at 5'8 initially? Hard to find a signal when the input is crap

Bobby Peru

12:58

You may have covered this already but do the Rays ZIPS take into account Yankee Stadium dimensions for home games?

Dan Szymborski

1:01

I'm just going with neutral for them. Steinbrenner Field's PF were neutral enough in FSL that it didn't seem to be worth the bother to pin it down further given how inaccurate it likely would be

Bobby Peru

1:01

Who does ZIPS project as the top 3 players in baseball 3 years from now?

Dan Szymborski

1:02

Ohtani, Soto, Witt

Dave Carry

1:02

Hello Dan, Do you have a time line for introducing the 3 yr Zips projections?

Dan Szymborski

1:02

When the projections go live at FG, I always include those for Apples

Tacoby Bellsbury

1:02

ABS implementation in the minors at least fixes the height data sooner.

Dave

1:03

Rays are scheduled for something like 60 home games by the midpoint of the season. Have you seen anything how extended road trips/home stands effect performance?

Dan Szymborski

1:03

I've looked at the issue a little, but haven't found anything that's really relevant

sliptoad

1:03

Could height data (if not weight) become easier to use with the advent of roboumps and the associated need to have accurate data on player size?

Dan Szymborski

1:03

It could, but I won't have it historically

1:03

Thoughts on Bowden Francis this year? Haven’t seen huge enthusiasm. He had a strong run in the second half after they left him alone and let him start.

Dan Szymborski

1:04

I think the big question is just how high his UPSIDE is, which is a big part of enthusiasm

Jeff Behrends

1:04

Do you stand by the idea that you know only what you can prove, as you said above? Seems too high a standard for knowledge

Dan Szymborski

1:04

I can SUSPECT things, but I only KNOW what I can prove

Burnes'd

1:04

Witt ranked higher than Gunnar? Surely Zips must be broken