JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/20/22

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Dan Szymborski

12:20

I'm sure it's good, it's just not chili

Alex

12:20

If the Seinfeld Soup Nazi served chili with beans, would you eat it?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

It might be good. I don't dislike beans. They're just not chili.

Guest

12:20

Any surprises with the final outcome of Atlanta's projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Not particularly

Though like this person, I was sad about Shewmake

Jefferson

12:21

Speaking of former Zips darlings, Braden Shewmakes projection made me very sad

DesmondJennings

12:21

What do you think the Rays biggest need is once the lockout ends?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

I'd really like the Rays to sign some non-descript pitcher that can throw a lot of innings

Who's Fabio?

12:21

Hey Dan, just curious, what do you think drives people to become debt collectors? Especially with all the other choices available.

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Money?

12:22

Not everyone gets to do their dream job

Matt

12:22

Could one add up all the WAR totals shown on the depth chart graphic for individual teams and then compare them to other teams to gauge how the teams stack up in the projections? Or would that be an inaccurate gauge?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

You can, but it would not be very accurate

ZiPS sims it out when there's a season because not everyone is going to hit their 50th projection

12:23

nor will this account for depth. Sometimes, those pitchers are going to have 0

So it's very rough, but like the disclaimer says, there's a karate chop in it.

Joe

12:23

NYY the top dog in the AL east as of now?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

I would say that, but it's very marginal

And I thijnk they're riskier than some other teams.

12:24

The Jays may have the highest chance of *not* falling out of the AL East race

Matt

12:24

What does Zips use for defensive projections incorporated into war?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I use a blend of defensive numbers

for minors, I also include a probabilistic measure I've worked on stemming from Gameday positional data.

12:26

There's more in the ZiPS Intro that too long to repeat here.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2022-zips-projections-are-coming/

Alby

12:26

What's your favorite sandwich?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

It's hard to beat a classic reuben with russian dressing

Fred

12:26

What does ZiPS says for an expected Freeman contract?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

Varies a little from team to team

12:27

He's likely to beat it though

ZiPS is looking somewhere around 6 years 120, but I dont' think that lands him

Ted

12:28

I bought my tickets for spring training in Arizona. I'm going whether there are games or not. Any tips for filling my time if there are no games?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

Drinkin?

Depends what else is going on in the area you're at!

Look for interesting local stuff

12:29

In march, we may be dealing with the sigma variant that has us bleeding out our rectums

Who's Fabio?

12:29

Broadly speaking, how does the fence change at Camden get factored into the projections? Did anything of magnitude change?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

None.

Moog Powell

12:29

So basically what you're saying is that you give Monfort "no respect"?

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