JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/21/19

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Dan Szymborski

12:14

Whatever I can make without effort!

CB Bucknor

12:14

After this weekend of NFL missed calls I don't look so bad now do I?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

You've got serious Career Value at sucking.

CamdenWarehouse

12:15

Do you predict Moose makes it in this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

No. The "private" votes tend to be kinda craptacular

I think he ends up around 70% and gets in next year.

It surprises me too, but Larry Walker may actually get in before he falls off, which I did not envision

Birddog

12:15

Where are the two most likely locations for expansion? Where are the two location you want to see MLB expanded to? (Even if it's not feasible)

Dan Szymborski

12:16

I would get Portland and Vegas more likely, I'd want to see a NC team and another team in NY in an ideal world

Murmur

12:16

Which Orlando Arcia will we be closer to in 2019? The unplayable version from the first four months of 2018, or the not terirble

Dan Szymborski

12:16

Somehwat better, but there are serious issues.

Matt

12:16

I feel like the way to fix the "problem" that seems like might be emerging with free agency and spending is quite simple. Shorten pre-arb by a year, knock 2 years off of arbitration, lower the minimum salary, and create some incentive to sign a player to a deal that might cover at least those 2 years of arb that I did away with (easier said than done, I get it). Obviously, this type of change can only be made with the players giving something up - as required in all negotiations/compromises - but why is this so difficult to grasp? Pay players closer to their value while they're producing their value, and thus remove the problem of teams not wanting to over pay/over commit in those later years.

Dan Szymborski

12:16

Honestly, the arb numbers aren't that big, you can't get *that* much of the pie growth.

12:17

I've said it before and I'll say it again, if players want to see their share go up, there need to be more revenues that are sensitive to a team's wins or perceived wins

Chris

12:17

What is the best case scenario for the Padres?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

Well, everybody's got a best case scenario over 90 wins. I hate the term best case scenario because there's no agreement on what percentile a result it's referring to

Kevin

12:18

Is Rowdy Telliz a legit threat to take away at bats from Justin Smoak? Is Telliz a legit prospect?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

I don't think he'll take away at bats from Smoak

12:19

YOu don't release him or anything, but you're talking about a guy who, for all intents and purposes, has kinda sucked against AAA pitchers.

12:20

Even in the much-better 2018, he's a guy without much defensive value and a .750ish OPS in AAA isn't that great, even in the IL as opposed to the PCL

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

12:21

"It’s [sic] seems every day now someone is making up a new analytical tool to devalue players, especially free agents." --Evan Longoria. How common among players do you think that attitude is ? Plenty of players have benefited from chances they got or tweaks they made that they owe to analytics, even if it's true that no one is paying for the Chris Carters of the world who would have gotten bank in the dark ages.

Dan Szymborski

12:21

It's a frustrating situation

It's not their job to be analytical about this process really; these are guys that see their friends and colleagues getting a lot less money than they expected and they wonder where they're going to be

12:22

What are your thoughts on Odubel Herrera? Can he regain an everyday role or will Quinn steal some at bats this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

Still his job, though he'll see ABs

Ron Fowler

12:22

How many games do the Padres need to win this year before it's smart to start spending on them? (Besides Myers and Hosmer, obv)

Dan Szymborski

12:22

80?

Chris

12:22

Any way Luis Urias can be a ROY candidate this season?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

Why not?

Guest

12:23

After an acceptable (but unremarkable) AAA stint followed by a solid MLB debut in '16, Alex Reyes had a 2017 ZiPS projection of 103+ ERA and 1.8 WAR for '18. Real life 2017 was in rehab, and ZiPS followed with a consistent 105+/1.4. However, another rehab year including four dominant MiLB starts in 2018 now result in a 98+/WAR. There's something happenin' here, what it is ain't exactly clear.

Dan Szymborski

12:23

ZiPS gives a bigger penalty for a second injury-filled season than the first. I'd have to run the projections on the exact same build that 2017 ZiPS was projected with to get a comparison

J Dog

12:24

still no wRC+ or FIP- on ZiPS? what gives?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

We haven't quite aligned what ZiPS is using for wRC and FIP as FG, so I don't want to create confusion when the numbers are slightly different.

Chris

12:24

What is Dave Cameron doing now?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

Working?

Call Me Willy

12:25

What are the odds the MLB adopts some sort of Restricted Free Agency model in lieu of arbitration? 3 years at minimum (salary should probably go up), year 4 RFA, year 5 RFA, year 6 RFA, year 7 full FA. You get to keep the control, but can't restrict the costs as much, possibly? This model might require any time spent on an MLB roster to equal 1 year of service instead of an accumulation of days, but the ramifications would probably be huge.

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I'm not sure it gives much of a benefit.

Birddog

12:25

Mychal Givens will probably traded in July... Should the Orioles move him now to maximize value?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

Might wait until the last of the interesting relievers is off the market

Big Joey

12:25

Over/Under Judge + Stanton combined 90 HRs in 2019