JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 1/23/25

drplantwrench

12:01

are the dodgers the team with the highest ZiPS projection ever? who is if they arent/where do they place?

Dan Szymborski

12:01

Oh yeah, welcome yada yada

It's still preliminary, but while the Dodgers have the highest ZiPS projected wins ever, it's not the 2025 Dodgers that are likely to grab that, but the 2021 Dodgers at 99 wins

Ahoy

12:02

As a Pirate fan who’s used to the disappointment of, well, everything, I admit the rosy projections of Horowitz and Gonzales made me happy! You surprised by those?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

Not REALLY, but only that it's difficult to really surprise me after doing this for 20 years!

drplantwrench

12:02

what do you think of the angels signing max scherzer to a big one year contract? they could use the SP and could be trade bait if/when their season falls apart

Dan Szymborski

12:02

Kinda meh. I think the Angels think they're a lot better than they actually are

VottomanEmpire

12:04

Bald-faced fantasy question - considering Landon Roupp and Yilber Diaz for a final keeper spot in a deep dynasty. Win-now team, so path to meaningful GS in 2025 is relevant. I see ZiPS likes both decently well for unproven young guys. I recall Longenhagen slapping a recent 50FV on Yilber and a more out-of-date 40FV on Roupp, while Eno has praised Roupp's stuff a bit (though hinted that the updated Stuff+ model is a tad less bullish). What say you, Father of Machines?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Both are really interesting, though I think Yilber's more likely to have trouble getting meaningful starts in majors in 2025

Pop

12:04

Which team has the best MLB level bullpen depth?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

In ZiPS, it WAS Twins, but I haven't looked at the bullpen projections in ZiPS since before their last couple of signings (so it COULD be dodgers)

SteveS

12:05

Hi Dan: Love your work. Any thoughts on Matt McClain and Shane McClanahan as contributors this upcoming season?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

I'm optimistic on both. The Reds were especially careful with McClain and I don't think there's any reason to worry about McClanahan more than any other guy at the end of their TJ recovery

Fish

12:06

What current players do you see as part of Miami’s next playoff team?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

noen

Justin

12:06

How would you rate the Dana brown front office so far

Dan Szymborski

12:06

OK, but not *great*

It's kind of an incomplete

12:07

They lose points for the organization being caught SO flat-footed by the Abreu 1B situation and simply having few good ideas what to do about it

(back then)

New and Former Mets

12:07

Hey Dan. Gut feeling: what wins out, Soto's talent or the #LolMets curse?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

The thing is the greater the Mets look, the more tragic the Mets curse is.

If the Mets had signed Soto *and* Burnes, the team would all come down with cholera in March

The Gyorko Store Called

12:08

Aside from arguably New York, is no one in the AL trying to get better and win this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

It's the incentives built intl MLB

Eli

12:08

does Zips have any hope for a Goldy bounce back? And Bellinger in YSIII?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

SOME but it's hard at his age. A bounce back may happen, but not enough to be impressive.

Bellinger is *fine* but he was greatly overrated by his 2023

Guest

12:09

Did you see MLB Network's list of shortstops? Can you see any reasoning for putting Seager at #2 ahead of Lindor and Witt?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

not good reasoning no

bazuka

12:09

Do you think Bobby Witt Jr. can do as well this year as he did last year? I think last year's results may have been too good.

Dan Szymborski

12:09

he CAN, but regression's always a thing for anyone

victoria

12:09

does zips prefer matt shaw at 2nd or 3rd long term?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

Ben VV

12:10

There is talk the Brewers will keep Ortiz at 3B, move Turang to SS and have Caleb Durbin take over at 2B. Thoughts and thoughts on what Brewers will get in Durbin?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

It's not the worst idea, if a bit unambitious

Kevin

12:10

Am I giving the Cubs too much credit or was their move for Paredes last year a deliberate precursor to the Tucker deal? His skill set plays virtually nowhere but TB and Houston.

Dan Szymborski

12:10

I doubt they really were thinking THAT far ahead.

Dan S.

12:10

Hey Dan, I haven’t seen Tyler O’Neill’s ZiPS projection on the Fangraphs page for the Orioles or Red Sox. What’s ZiPS say about him in 2025?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

ZiPS is a bigger O'Neill fan than Steamer is, I believe

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