JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/24/18

Dan Szymborski

2:01

Commence the composition of our baseball quodlibet.

Jason

2:02

Hosmer to San Diego?

Dan Szymborski

2:03

If this happened? ROFL Padres.

Roadhog

2:03

At what price point does Cain make sense for the A's? 3/60?

Dan Szymborski

2:03

Not sure it's relaly the best fit. There are contenders that ought to be interested in him.

Eric Hosmer

2:03

Where do I end up and will I still get $200 million?

Dan Szymborski

2:03

I can't imagine $200 million unless MLB is doing it as penalty for some serious infraction by a team.

Desperate, confused Marlins fan

2:03

Why dont the Rockies just give the 1st base job to Mcmahon? is Desmond really that viable an option?

Dan Szymborski

2:04

McMahon's probably better, but I don't expect him to be a league-average offensive 1B in Coors.

Desmond at first is just certifiably moronic, of course.

2:06

Remember, Reynolds hit 267/352/487 and that only made a 105 OPS+

2:07

An average starting 1B tends to be somewhere between 112 and 120 depending on the year.

Busted Pinata

2:07

Any advice for someone who wants to begin generating his own projection model? Any resources that helped you to begin or places to start

Dan Szymborski

2:07

Well, you need lots of data and lots of tools to explore what's predictive.

Eli

2:07

Given how high the marginal value of a win is for them, are the Yankees making a terrible mistake with plan $197?

Dan Szymborski

2:07

I actually think they're past the point where marginal wins have a ton of value

2:07

Projections are pretty high on Dansby compared to last year. Are you as confident?

Dan Szymborski

2:07

I'm still confident.

Rollie's Mustache

2:07

Do you have a strong opinion on Hall of Fame selections? It seems like the vote discrepancies this year are exceptionally baffling: ie. Hoffman over Wagner, Vizquel over Rolen, Vlad over Walker.

Dan Szymborski

2:08

Vizquel over Rolen is atrocious, of course.

2:09

But it's hard to separate all the weird ones when many, many voters are stuck with 10 only because the Hall won't let them vote more. It's resulted in a lot of ballots that look really odd in a world in which the Hall of Fame board isn't populated by a bunch of hapless idiots.

2:10

For example, if I had a vote (I still have some years to go in BBWAA to get my ballot), by the time I had to mail my ballot, I'd be sure enough about there election that I wouldn't be able to "afford" a meaningless spot for Chipper, Thome, or Vlad.

Nathan

2:10

Do you think the Yankees will make another big move this offseason?

Dan Szymborski

2:10

Jordan

2:10

Yelich and Castro to the Brewers for Brinson, Phillips, and Hiura/DIaz. Could this deal work or do the Marlins want more?

Dan Szymborski

2:10

I think Marlins want more

2:11

The fact is, that the Marlins aren't in the place that, even with his happiness, that they feel they need to trade him. And if they become serious, there will be a lot of bidders

ryan

2:11

why so few PAs for freeman in the braves ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski

2:11

This is one of those questions for which I'd urge you to read *all* the text in the disclaimer.

Purple Mays Haze

2:12

If Machado gets traded.....Mountastle is Oriole 3B??

Dan Szymborski

2:12

I don't believe so.

2:13

The Orioles have maintained they want him at SS until he proves that he can't hack it

But if he doesn't, I'd more expect him at 2B or the OF

Jonathan

2:13

Not trying to be a pain at all, just confused and hoping for clarification. You've always (correctly IMO!) claimed that there shouldn't be a human element to ZiPS projections. Why do we see, then, a few players with lower DR projections get Ex range ratings in Diamond Mind's software and a few players with higher DR projections get Vg range ratings? Even if we account for error and arm components and focus just on range, it seems like there are inconsistencies every year. Why not just have an algorithm that spits out those range ratings and have no after-the-fact modifications?

Dan Szymborski

2:13

It's essentially done, but I do have to double-check

DMB suffers from granularity issues.

2:14

In defensive ratings.

And different number ranges for diffferent positions

Justin

2:15

Is DDS a big enough liability in CF that it's worth it to bring Carlos Gomez back?

Dan Szymborski

2:15