Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/25/16
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Dan Szymborski
12:01
I see like the first 10 questions in the queue are off-topic. Saving most of them for the Lightning Round.
Guest
12:01
If the Astros do end up signing Gallardo, where would a rotation of
Where would a rotation of Keuchel/McHugh/McCullers/Fiers/Gallardo rotation rank in the AL if the Astros do indeed end up signing him?
Dan Szymborski
12:01
Ah, found the rest farther down.
12:02
Not doing final ranks until we get closer to the season. I'm not high on Gallardo though so I can't say it would be significant.
12:03
There are some very scary trends in Gallardo's line.
Scott
12:03
I'm a bit confused on the ZIPS statistical comps. When I see the #1 comparison to player X's projected season is player Y, does that mean player X is projected to have a season similar to the average of player Y's career statistics, or just one of player Y's seasons? If the latter, which season?
Dan Szymborski
12:03
Recent past seasons.
Operation Shutdown
12:04
BY-Park is clearly going to hit 50+ HR's for the Pirates this year, yes?
Dan Szymborski
12:04
Well, I guess if there is like an Human Resources Night and there's a big section of Human REsources Directors and he fouls off a whole bunch of pitches into that section, maybe.
Paul
12:04
I'm at work feeling pretty sick. Do I go home early, or just sit here and do nothing for 6 more hours?
Dan Szymborski
12:05
Might as well stick it out. You already did the part of waking up and going to work, so might as well finish. Waste of sick time to use it on a day you already made effort
Eric
12:05
I'm not even going to try and cleverly disguise it, this is a fantasy question (points for honesty?). How many games do you think Machado plays at SS this year?
Dan Szymborski
12:05
5
Steve
12:06
Even though he's out of options, Rymer Liriano seems like he'd be a better option than the in house ones for Baltimore. Do the O's bring him on board?
Dan Szymborski
12:07
Doubt he makes it to O's in a claim
12:08
and the O's don't have a lot to offer in a trade.
David Stearns
12:08
What type of return can I expect for Ryan Braun right now?
Dan Szymborski
12:08
Not much. Brewers foolishly extended a great deal with a mediocre deal YEARS in advance.
12:09
Would Braun get 5/105 if he had been a free agent this winter? I don't think so.
Cespedes and Upton are both younger awith better recent track records.
Sir Nerdlington
12:09
Where do think the MLBPA should focus their attention in the CBA? Raising the luxury tax is the obvious top priority but it seems to me that 4x'ing (or some other crooked number) the league minimum would do far more for everyone in the sense that team-friendly extensions would be harder for team's to get since those with only a year of service time have already locked in their first millions. Thoughts?
Following up on the CBA, it seems like the MLBPA should be doing some subversive posturing at this point. E.g. collusion as it relates to top hitting FAs not moving (though two weeks ago would have been the time for this). With a $9B pie, why is the MLBPA not publicly fighting harder for their positions?
Dan Szymborski
12:10
The thing about collusion is it requires evidence - there was significant evidence when findings were made.
There will likely only be tinkering around the edges.
12:11
I think a better explanation for the hitters is simply that teams are wising up to the idea that you don't give massive contracts to corner outfielders decline years.
Eric
12:11
Why do you think Cespedes had to settle for such a small contract?
Dan Szymborski
12:12
See previous answer. A team signing Cespedes doesn't get to have his 2015 because that's not how time works.
Vic Romano
12:12
Which version of Rendon shows up in 2016? The 2014 baseball-thumping version or the 2015 endlessly-injured version?
Dan Szymborski
12:12
It could be both.l
Stevie G
12:12
Do you predict, as of today, that the Nationals will win the NL East? If not, are they a wild card winner?
Dan Szymborski
12:12
I think the Nats and Mets are very closely matched right now and that as of now, the wild card is more likely to come from the NL Central
Sir Nerdlington
12:13
Do you publish confidence levels/error bars for the ZiPS projections? Any idea who ZiPS missed the most on last year (high or low)?
Dan Szymborski
12:13
I publish lots of odds stuff in the final spreadsheet.
Skarp Hedin
12:13
Prospects are highly valued right now. But does the league properly value the ease/difficulty of stocking a farm system?
Dan Szymborski
12:14
I'm not sure I understand the question. Prospects are highly valued because the benefits of prospects are built into the system. It's not like valuing high-OBP guys 15 years ago because OBP was underrated, you get to pay prospects less than their market value no matter how many people know abou tit.
Sirras
12:15
Are you surprised that the Mets brought back Cespedes? Are you surprised by the terms of the deal?
Dan Szymborski
12:16
Once the market dragged on without him signing, less so.
Vic
12:16
Towson, MD...down the street from Loyola Blakefield. Still not plowed. I created a mountain by shoveling. Will Bubba Starling ever climb the mountain?
Dan Szymborski
12:16
Sledding there was always good.
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