JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/28/19

Dan Szymborski

11:59

OH GOD WE'RE LIVE PANIC TIME

Matt

11:59

Will there be a zips top 100 prospect list like in previous years?

Dan Szymborski

11:59

Yup

Robby

11:59

Do you buy that Kris Bryant is actually fully healthy? Shoulder injuries are scary

Dan Szymborski

12:00

Shoulder injuries are! If forced to guess, I'd guess that he was fullly healthy, but not yet full strength

If that makes sense.

Mr. M

12:00

Manny Machado is going to sign with the Padres today. Search your feelings, you know it to be true.

Dan Szymborski

12:00

It would be a good signing!

tb.25

12:00

Do you think Harper & Machado are feeling a bit... chili... sitting by themselves waiting for the right offers?

Dan Szymborski

12:00

They have no beans, so they coudl be!

Numbcrunch

12:00

10 team AL only league auction coming up. Won last year so I had to trade away all prospects and good contracts.

BenM

12:00

When projecting, is age just another factor in your multiple regressions or is it controlled for at the end with the help of an aging curve?

Dan Szymborski

12:00

Age is found in the cohort that players are compared to.

Matt

12:00

What's for lunch?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

Limburger, liverwurst, onions, on black bread.

Guest

12:02

This offseason sucks :(

Matt

12:02

So, the "+" stats are indexed against league average. When looking at those stats over multiple seasons, how is that league average calculated? Is it specific to that group of seasons, or do you take a weighted average of each of the player's seasons?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

Same as park effects, weighted recent years.

CamdenWarehouse

12:02

The Orioles prospect list isn't a complete dumpster fire. What is this feeling I have?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

Weird hope

Dave Szymborski's Email Inbox

12:02

Is Detroit or Kansas City the least interesting team this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

On the actual field, the O's will be least interesting

Chuncey Wiggins

12:03

I still don't understand why the Carter Stewart situation went on for as long as it did. How hard is it to prove that 40% of a set amount was offered by a team? Are we missing something?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Yeah, it seems like something you'd resolve way before arbitration, but what do I now

pelkey

12:03

What language did/do you write zips in?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Oh, I'm not a programmer. Like Nate and PECOTA, ZiPS is a mess that an actual coder would ahve a nightmare winter repairing.

12:04

I started with statistica and excel and I've moved it over the years to excel with a whole bunch of add-ons (sadly, none inexpensive!)

Siri

12:04

Christian Stewart: o/u 25 HR and .350 OBP?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

I think Christin Stewart is better than zips, but definitely under on the OBP

fence for HR

Tyler

12:05

Hi Dan, if you've had a chance to research it, what are your thoughts on DRC+? What, if any, qualms do you have with it? Thanks!

Dan Szymborski

12:05

I haven't had as much time to really dig into it and make educated guesses at some of the construction, so I think it would be unfair for me to either praise or throw under the bus.

12:06

I do like boldness though and the people who developed it are very competent individuals

Mickey

12:07

How many years did Mike Trout have to produce Mike Trout-like numbers before ZiPS started projecting him to produce Mike Trout-like numbers?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

It was like 2 before it was set, I think

I can check THAT pretty easily

12:08

OK, not even 2

ZiPS projected Trout to 8 WAR in 2013