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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/29/26

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Greetings friends! I am enjoying a balmy 14 degrees now, a full 24 degrees of warming in the last four hours!

If only my mazda was a convertible so I could go enjoy the day

Datt Mamon

12:03

The Cubs seem like they're poised to be better in 2026, so what accounts for an only 87 win projection?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

ZiPS doesn't necessarily see them as better

It already liked PCA a ton. Sees Bregman/Tucker swap a wash. No more excited about the rotation and nobody has a projection as good as Steele last year. Likes bullpen a bit better

12:04

Does the qualifying offer have to be exactly the number provided by MLB or at least that number? Could a team offer $35m for a player that may want to reconsider going to the market?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

The official Qualifying Offer specifies *equal* to the (formula for qualifying offer) and that *the* amount of the qualifying offer *shall* be determined by the formula

12:07

But there's nothing preventing a team from making a qualifying offer at the same time making a normal offer for more that is only applicable over the same quiet period

it's a paper work thing

12:07

Thoughts on doing away with minus stats? Let's just make it all +. It's redundant otherwise

Dan Szymborski

12:08

People get upset that higher ERA+ numbers are good

and feel it should be the opposite

so no reason to bother them

Kevin

12:08

I recall you saying not too long ago that a given year's ZiPs projections are more accurate for the following year's production. For example a 2024 projection would more closely align with 2025 production than 2024. Am I summarizing that correctly and if so, can you elaborate on that?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

That is correct. Based on history, you would expect the 2025 preseason projected standings that I published in March to be slightly more accurate in predicting 2026 performance than the *actual* 2025 record.

12:09

That's not because ZiPS is magical, but because recency bias is huge. I haven't tested since I don't have the same access to other projection systems and their data, for obvious reasons, but I expect this is true of any competent projection system

12:10

Basically, if you had to project players next year and choose between A) 2025 data only or B) All data before the start of the 2025 season, you'd expect to project a bit better with B

TameImp

12:10

Is there a way to project what Bobby Witt's WAR would be if they played him at second base? Presumably he'd be the best defensive 2nd basemen and would get a positional boost from an oWAR perspective?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

ZiPS has a model for moving players

12:11

ZiPS projects him slightly less valuable at second as he's already terrific at shrotstop, and there are minimal gains to moving an elite player to an easier position relative to league average

12:12

because there are slightly less impactful opportunities at 2B

Like a +15 SS is not going to be a +30 1B or something

They'll likely be something like a +10 1B

Smore Grizelle

12:13

Do you have a 5-year ZiPS projection for Bregman? It wasn't included in the article about his signing. Thanks!

Dan Szymborski

12:13

The three years are on FG and the final two eyars are...unexciting

David

12:14

I hear you are cold, have you tried getting more cats?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I actually do not like having cats all over me.

esepcially when I'm working

12:15

Over time, cats generally learn pretty well that the soft pillow on the desk to the left of me is where they should sit

though Justinian tries to sneak on my lap if I don't appear to be paying attention

12:16

I sit in a big soft recliner with ottoman, parallel to two desks, with my massive monitor on an angle on the right desk

and my keyboard typically on my right leg

I have a third desk behind me

and nothing directly in front of me so I can see the TV wall

12:17

Which Currently has two 52 inch TVs, two 34 inch TVs, which all can be controlled by a laptop on my left desk

TameImp

12:17

Does it feel like we are going to get the Rendon contract of pre-arb extensions coming soon? Eventually someone is going to give 100mm to a guy who flames out as a rookie right?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

Yeah, teams are getting pretty good about stupid contracts, but these things happen

Insert Witty Name Here

12:17

What’s the pitch du jour this year? Splitter and kick change I think were the last two, haven’t heard of anything so far this year.

Dan Szymborski

12:18

I think we tend to see the new hotness in spring

E.l.

12:18

What can the Giants do now to get themselves closer to high 80s wins in ZIPS?