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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/3/18
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AvatarDan Szymborski
1:59
Hey guys!
2:00
The chat has started.
Jimmy Ballgame
2:02
Thoughts on delino deshields going forward?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:03
I think a lot of it comes down to how good he is full-time defensively in center
The results have been mixed - I don't think long-term he'll contribute enough in a corner.  Luckily he has a clearer path
Beni and the Betts
2:03
You teased the Yankee list today.  When is it coming out?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:03
I'm about the submit it to the Cistulli Sample.
Which means Friday!
Josh Nelson
2:04
The last two seasons a White Sox hitter has far surpassed their ZiPS projection (Adam Eaton in 2016, Avisail Garcia in 2017). Which White Sox hitter going into 2018 do you think ZiPS is low on?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:05
Maybe Tim Anderson.  He has the tools still I think to suddenly put it all together
Especially defensively
Oklahomabrave
2:05
What Do you see AA and Braves doing the rest of this offseason for trades if anything
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:06
Anthopoulos was always a tricky GM to predict in Toronto and I expect that to continue.  Very tight-lipped organization; they and the Dodgers literally kept that Kemp trade away from ALL writers, as far as I know
I expect he'll look for upside values rather than do any Markakis-type signings
Mike
2:06
Will you start to include batted ball data, via statcast, in your ZiPS model? I have no idea how you would do that, but I'm curious if that's possible.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:06
Some has been included since 2014 (not statcast), more is included in this year's live version.
KW
2:07
Darvish, Arrieta or Cobb -- which SP do the Cubs sign?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:07
Despite hilariously debunked signing rumor, I think the Cubs *do* end up with Darvish in the end.
Henryv
2:07
Is the variability in framing metrics from year to year a result of a lack of high-quality data, variance in the actual results, or actual variability of the skill set of the players from year to year?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:07
There's a few things.  Variance int he actual results is a big one.
2:08
And most umpires aren't Angel Hernandez.  If it's around everywhere that X player is getting crazy good framing numbers, a lot of umps will be aware of that.
Because framing isn't like BABIP or something in which those plays did happen.
Framing is literally tricking the system.
EK
2:09
How much of a fantasy impact do you see Jacob Faria having?  In a league wins don't matter
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:09
I like Faria, but I think he'll only come into play in deeper leagues.
(not that) James
2:09
How bananas are Acuna's bananas projections?  If you can't give actual numbers, then on a scale of 1 to 27 bananas.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:09
It already has him above two WAR for 2018, which is crazy for a 20-year-old.
Annoyingly, Steamer likes him a little more than ZiPS
husky harris
2:10
Why has WWE wasted Bray Wyatt? The character had so much potential, and now he's being out-Wyatted by Matt Hardy.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:10
The WWE has a long-term trend of midcard/upper-midcard laziness.
Once a guy sin't seen as a main-eventer, they just kinda float around WWE, mainly existing.
2:11
And the second-tier titles (International/US) have been cheapened so much over the last 20 years that they're not great Maguffins anymore.
EK
2:11
How confident are you in Tommy Pham still being a high end OF in 2018?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:11
Depends what you mean by high-end.  I'm confidently he'll be a really good player, though I predict a lesser-than-2017 season.
Druidiful
2:12
So is it true that FanGraphs is pivoting to video in 2018?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:12
OK, gotta find my graphic for this type of quesiton.
zurzles
2:13
any juice to my theory that Duquette has purposely been tanking/half-assing the O's ever since he wasn't allowed to interview with the Blue Jays back in like, 2014? I know it's easy to just blame Angelos but in a way, this totally legitimate theory is also blaming Angelos
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:14
I don't think he's tanking, but more or less employed by an ownership that ham-handedly interferes and with a manager he has limited authority over
GP
2:14
You mentioned somewhere (Twitter?) that you were playing with adding Statcast data into ZiPS. Did poor batted ball profiles from several Twins hitters (Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, etc.) factor into fairly poor projections for the Twins offense?
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