JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/30/2020

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Magic Kingdome

12:09

Considering this is the last year the bulk of the Rays' roster will be still be pre-arb or arb1, this should have been the year they spent a little extra to "go for it," right?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

Yeah, but what are the odds of THAT really

Mookie's Bowling Ball

12:09

Is it just me, or do the Red Sox feel like a team that isn't as good as the sum of its parts? I know projections have them performing a bit above last year & looking at the roster that makes sense, but a poor performance last season, shake-ups at GM & manager, the cheating scandal still looming, Mookie trade talks & whatever impact that has, etc.

This team is full of all the 'x-factor-y' variables that supposedly have negative impacts & they have a couple guys with reputations for making those issues worse (whether or not those are reasonable reputations). So I guess the question is, what do you think the likelihood is that they perform to expectations or even beyond (assuming Mookie stays)?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

I'm not sure it's really taht they're not as good as the sum of their parts as much as the part depth is quite unimpressive.

Texas Cards Fan1

12:11

It’s mind boggling the Cards had a shot to get a 3B who will end In the Hall of Fame. How much would’ve been too much to give up for Arenado? I’d have traded any but Flaherty. Help me understand how they let this slip away. Thanks.

Dan Szymborski

12:11

Everything I"ve hard around baseball is that the Rockies have been completely unrealistic about his value.

Which makes ense, because the Rockies ahve been completely unrealistic about everything and anything.

Dbo

12:12

My coworker made the argument that a chicken biscuit is not a breakfast food, cant any food item techbically be a breakfast food?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

Yes. This bedroom has an oven.

Dbo

12:12

Dan! My work blocked fangraphs chat! Do i quit my job now?!?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

Yup, and burn it down to protect others.

Bistrin

12:12

Have you seen Cavan Biggio's feet? Longenhagen put an 80 on them. I'm at a loss of words.

Dan Szymborski

12:12

I haven't actually paid attention. Perhaps I shoudl

Matt

12:12

Is Josh Bell the All-Star Player he was in the first half of last season, the barely-serviceable player he was in the second half, or somewhere in between as ZIPS seems to indicate?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

In between usually works

Rox Fan

12:14

A sub-100 wRC+ for David Dahl and 0.9 WAR (Steamer projections) seem pretty low given his actual MLB numbers to date, don't they?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I'd take the over, but you'd have to ask the Steamer guys!

It's not ludicrously low; all the projection systems are kinda meh on him. ZiPS is the least down and even that's only an OPS+ of 104

Machadres

12:15

What is the max contract you'd be willing to give Mookie if in charge of a team with deep pockets next offseason?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

10/350

Matt

12:15

How do CBA considerations play into service-time manipulation? Are teams less concerned about playing youngsters early because they expect service time to be addressed differently under the next CBA? Or are they more hesitant to play those players due to the uncertainty?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

I don't think it really has an efefct, becuase the CBA will be whatever the CBA will be.

WetButt23

12:15

What do you think of this Betts trade proposal? Padres get Betts & JBJ, assuming all of what they are owed in 2020 ($38M, which will count against the Red Sox luxury tax if they don't trade them). The Padres trade Myers, Margot, Morejon, & Ryan Weathers (or another 100-200 prospect). The Red Sox pick up all of Myers 2020 salary ($22.5M), while the Padres pick up $7M of Myers' deal in each of 21 & 22 ($14M total). All told, between Myers, Margot, Morejon, and Weathers, the Red Sox take on $25M in base salary in 2020, plus $31M total for Myers in 21 & 22. In doing that, though, the Red Sox reduce their 2020 lux tax hit by $22M in 2020, b/c Myers' is only a $13.8M hit to the lux tax & Margot only $2.5. This would put them right around the tax threshold of $208M in 2020, avoiding the $10M in lux tax fees on top of the salaries owed to Betts and JBJ. Doing this deal effectively reduces what the Red Sox owe in 2020 by $22M. SD's payroll goes up $15M in 20 & down by $15M in both 21 & 22 from the current projections.

Dan Szymborski

12:16

That's a lot for me to digest in a 30 second read-and-answer!

12:18

It's probalby in the neighborhood, but I think the Red Sox would insist on another prospect in addition.

If they were inclined to straight dump JBJ, thety could've done it in the offseason

Jim Leyland Palmer

12:18

So ZIPS loves Chris Sale this year, how risky do you think he is from a fantasy perspective?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

Quite, Who knows what his health is.

Bistrin

12:18

Nico Nornpiece, Nico Hoerner, or Nico Mannion? Give one a hair cut, drive one to the airport, feed one grapes. Go.

Dan Szymborski

12:18

heh

Jon

12:19

Who's going to win the AL Central?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

I think Twins are mild favorites.

kingdome

12:19

projecting forward a few years, who do you see as most valuable Bryse wilson, tony gonsolin, or adrian morejon?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

Bryse

guest

12:19

What are your thoughts on the Dusty hire?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

Fine in the short-term, but the Astros will regret it if they don't move on from Baker after a year or two

Cool Dick Lovelady

12:20

A cheese sandwich should just be cheese between to other slices of cheese. The outer slices must be the same cheese. The inner slice must be different than the outer slice. Should be served with dipping condiments up to and including ranch.

Bistrin

12:20

I hate to spill the beans, but Luis Arraez is going to blow the door hinges off the proverbial flood gates.

Magic Kingdome

12:20

What was Mike Trout's exact words when he found out that the best pitcher the Angels added this offseason was Dylan Bundy?

Dan Szymborski

12:20