JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/4/24

Dan Szymborski

12:01

It's a chat!

Tacoby Bellsbury

12:01

What has been the ZiPSiest transaction of the offseason, and what would be the ZiPSiest potential one from here?

Dan Szymborski

12:01

I'm not sure. Or even what the question means!

12:02

Maybe Jung-hoo Lee? When ZiPS evaluates the opt-out it gets relaly close to actual

Mike

12:02

What new legend player would you most like to see in MLB The Show 24?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

TETTLETON

12:03

But more seriously, I dont' think we've ever had Gooden?

The person who asks the lunch question

12:03

What's for lunch?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Nothing!

matt w

12:03

Apologies for a question you've probably answered (but I can't find it)--when do you do ZiPS for a player who signs with a team after you've posted the team's projection? WIth their old team, or as part of a free agent roundup?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Usually, since the ZiPS go up just a few days after the last team, they go up properly on the site at that point

Though I'll usually post it if someone bugs me on Twitter about it

Sir Nerdlington

12:04

Is there an area of forecasting about which the general public would be shocked at how far along MLB teams are? Injury? Chemistry?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Some of the mechanics stuff

I think a lot of people would be surprised at what front offices *don't* do

12:05

Like they generally don't devote much time to trying to make better generalized metricds

metrics

I notice that lots of people have this idea there are secret internal WAR measures that are a billion times better

But generalized stuff isn't typically a great use of front office time

Doug

12:06

Jarren Duran and Marcelo Mayer for Logan Gilbert. Who says no?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

Both I think

Victoria

12:06

Is ZIPS terrified of a Shane Bieber extension?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

Depends on what the deal is!

matt w

12:07

Scouting reports on the current locations of the cats?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

Hard to say - I'm out of town at the moment so I'd have to call my mom and check where she saw them when she was over there

Matt (Oceanside)

12:07

Do you think the Dodgers are an organization that could successfully go to a six-man rotation, especially with Ohtani coming back in 2025, but also for 2024 to facilitate better health and availability for Yamamoto, Glasnow, Buehler, Miller etc? They have a huge chunk of major league ready prospect arms in Sheehan, Frasso, Stone, Grove, Hurt, Knack, and River Ryan, plus guys like Yarbrough. I've heard that it doesn't really work most times because you need 6 arms that are good enough, but I don't really buy that line of thinking. Teams seem to need around 10 starters to get through a season because of health. What say you?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

I think they'll simply be flexible depending on who is healthy at any given time

They're fine with juggling a bunch of talented pitchers I think

Zach

12:08

Despite all the handwringing and rending of garments this offseason, am I wild for thinking the Mariners are better than they were in 2023? Kelenic and Suárez are recognizable names with real questions about their future production, whereas Mitch Garver can really hit. It hasn't been an overwhelming offseason but the angry fan sentiment seems wildly disconnected from the reality of the team, to me at least.

Dan Szymborski

12:08

I don't think BETTER

Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs

12:08

It's like John Fisher said, "Screw it, I'm going full supervillain on this town": https://apnews.com/article/ballers-minor-league-bs-oakland-as-a9053b35...

Tyler

12:08

Hi Dan, I’m just curious. What percentage of people who cover baseball in some form or another actually know the math behind the analytics they cite? I’ve always loved baseball and thought I had a decent ability to write and speak intelligently about it, but I don’t actually know why or how certain statistics are calculated the way they are. I read a lot about analytics and understand how to interpret many of them, but I feel like in order to go out and try something like a podcast or blog I should know more about the nuts and bolts of the numbers. Is this necessary in your opinion? Thanks!

Dan Szymborski

12:08

I'm not sure how to answer this *exactly*. The exact degree of understanding is going to be a full spectrum

And some things have more math behind it than other things

12:09

I mostly try to focus on *my* understanding of things

and let others do what others will do, objecting if something seems awry

Mark

12:09

Not too hard to find the run expectancies for the 24 base / out states for the professional level, but I was wondering if you knew of anyone calculating them for amateur levels. College has to exist somewhere, right? And high school and youth might exist?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

I haven't seen them

College may very well exist, but I don't know where!

Reuben

12:09

Do you have any suggestions for sources when building a projection system? Specifically, I was recently looking for how historical comps inform a system like PECOTA (or ZiPS).

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