JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/6/22

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/6/22

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Dan Szymborski

12:34

If my office is any indication, computers and dishes I need to bring upstairs.

Tacoby Bellsbury

12:34

If you were to exchange surname consonants with another Fangraphs writer, which writer would you pick, which consonant would you take, and which would you give back in return? Why?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

I think I'd take one of Jay's J's.

Given him an S

And make people figure out HTW to say Zjymborski

Jim Leyland Palmer

12:35

What would be a good starting point for someone looking to get into classical music?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

Depends what you're into!

12:36

I have a basic spotify playlist of recordings I like over a broad segment

https://open.spotify.com/playlist/6kxDNlGanj3U25TKD6fDk6?si=031c906e7d...

cool

1

soxfan

12:36

What is the most surprising(to you) ZiPS projection that you have seen this year? Good or bad

Dan Szymborski

12:36

Generally speaking, how positive the ZiPS for Detroit are.

Nermal Network

12:37

Jollibee is a Filipino fast food chain featuring fried chicken and a version of spaghetti that is like something from one of those limited ingredient cooking shows -- "you must make spaghetti, but your only ingredients are noodles, ketchup, and leftover hot dogs"

Giancarlo Stanton

12:37

Only a 127 OPS+ for me? Why does ZiPS not like me? I hit ball very hard

Dan Szymborski

12:37

You're also not young and your bonkers year is also farther back

Guest

12:38

is AEW falling into the same trap as mid 90s WCW (sign a bunch of wrestlers over from another promotion and hope they continue their success)?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

There's always that risk, but between the playoffs, crazy pre-lockout market, and then ZiPS, I'm WAY behind on my vieweing

Guest

12:38

Love your ZiPs post on Jays - big fan - which got me dreaming of how Jays might best address their pitching. Would Kirk/Groshans to Marlins for Cabrera/Bender make sense ? Who says no ? or who has to add ?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

It's not crazy

Jefferson

12:39

Can you help me understand how Zips projects a pitchers wins and loses? (yes, I know those are terrible stats to look at). For instance, Antonio Senzatela is projected for a 4.35 era in 28 starts and an 8-6 record. Kyle Freeland is 4.85 era in 25 starts but a 9-8 record. What drives that difference? Shouldn't Freeland have less wins because of his higher Era?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

Sorry door

12:42

It's mostly a decision thing

As far as I can tell looking at this for 45 seconds

ZiPS has Freeland getting to a decision slightly more often

12:43

But it's hard to extract that from a model super quickly

Door

12:44

Apology not accepted.

laughing

2

Sporter's Five Horses

12:45

What do you estimate forecasting ZiPS accuracy is, relative to teams in-house models? E.g., 50%? 75%?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

It's hard to say as they don't give me access.

Now, teams and agents still buy as much data as ever. So it's at least being perceived as useful somehow.

12:46

But I can't really answer that question accurately!

Jordan

12:47

If someone where to take on the entire Hosmer contract as it stands right now would the team, from a LuxTax perspective, be responsable for the original contract AVV (18mil/y) or the AVV of what's remaining (14.25mil/y) and does the 3 year 39/mil player option change anything? I dpm'

Dan Szymborski

12:47

If the Base Salary (plus any deferred compensation or annuity costs) in a Player Option Year (“Player Option Year Value”) is less than 80% of the Base Salary (plus any attributed Signing Bonus, deferred compensation or annuity costs) in the Guaranteed Year with the smallest such figure before the first such Player Option Year (80% Figure), then, for each such Player Option Year, the difference between the Player Option Year Value and the 80% Figure shall be allocated pro rata across the Guaran- teed Years preceding the first such Player Option Year; provided, however, that if the 80% Figure is itself less than 75% of the AAV of the Contract (calculated as if the Player Option Year was not a Guaranteed Year), then the 80% Figure shall instead be 75% of the AAV calculation set out immediately above.

David

12:47

Do you have a chili recipe you recommend/follow or at this point do you just do it all from memory.

Dan Szymborski

12:48

Recipes are for baking, not cooking!

cool

2

The basics are easy.

Cubed steak

Reconstitute interesting chili peppers in water. Sear them a bit on the stove

12:50

Make a paste in processor of chili peppers, masa harina, salt, pepper, cumin, can of chipotle en adobo, and some water until it's like a condiment.

Brown the meat. Add the paste. Cook low until the meat is your desired toothsomeness

Highway61

12:50

Probably a stupid question, but can agents talk to GMs during the lockout? Will we see a flurry of signings once this ends? Thanks

Dan Szymborski

12:51

As I understand it, agents cannot talk to GMs in any capacity that involves representing their client

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