JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/7/19

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Dan Szymborski

12:31

I think the allegations would have been enough to change how he would be perceived

BigChief

12:31

I keep hearing Keuchel will age better because he's a command guy... Is there any actual evidence of this? Or is it just perception since velocity decreases are much easier to see than command decreases (also, I still feel like a command guy guy from 91 to say 89 is just as bad as a power pitcher going from 95-92/93, unless it's being implied command guys don't lose velo like power pitchers as they age).

Dan Szymborski

12:32

Really really good command guys age decently

But an average command guy will age worse than an average power guy - there's simply less room for error

Rod Becks Handlebar Mustache

12:32

Rosenthal's article today about how brokeass the Cubs are has me quite sad :-(

Dan Szymborski

12:32

Half of what you see from teams is posturing

greg

12:32

Cat update please

Dan Szymborski

12:32

They're not really doing much at the moment

Casual fan

12:33

Why is it OK for Boras (someone hired by a player to act in their best interest) to bypass the GM (someone hired by the owner to act in their best interest) and go straight to the owner, but not the other way around?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

Well, what do you mean by OK?

12:34

And GMs aren't legal representatives of the ownership's interests in the same way, technically speaking, as agents are for players

Bort

12:34

Tanner Scott should be better. Why isn't he better?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

Raw

CrankDatGarage

12:34

What is Kendrys Morales trade value? He was a great hitter for most of 2018. What players should the BJs prioritize trading away? I dont see a good reason to keep Smoak unless the market is just comically bad for him.

Dan Szymborski

12:34

It's fairly limited

12:35

He'll be a 36-year-old DH by midseason and "June-August" is a bad projection system

12:36

Look at how uninterested baseball was in Trumbo after a 47-homer 122 OPS+ year

Bread Gardner

12:36

My wife has started drinking coffee and now she is _aggressively kinetic_, what do I do

Dan Szymborski

12:37

Cyanide has some calming properties.

DISCLAIMER: DO NOT POISON PEOPLE UNLESS THEY ARE BABY HITLER

Kurt

12:37

Any hope for Willie Calhoun moving forward or has he lost most of his shine over the past calendar year?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

The shine is off, but he can still be rebuffed. 2018 was a mess

SouthSide Sox fan

12:37

What kind of season should we expect from Moncada? Fewer K's and more power - I sure hope so.

Dan Szymborski

12:37

THat's about what I keep hoping for

Kurt

12:37

Any hope for a rebound from Cody Bellinger back to his rookie season statline?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

Yeah, though his rookie was probably higher than his baseline

Dan

12:38

I got up early today, and caught your chat somehow, so in lieu of wrestling hypotheticals: ZIPS ZIPS ZIPS ZIPS ZIPS ZIPS. Haammm-burger.

Duke

12:38

Does Syndergaards declining k/9 worry you? Velocity seemed on par with norms, and the breaking stuff also seemed sharp. Could it be pitch selection/gameplan? How he approaches an at bat? thanks

Dan Szymborski

12:39

Not concerned yet, 2017 was essentially a lost season. Thor has 200 innings and no K-rate bounce then I'll be mildly concerned

Kurt

12:39

How does ZIPS come up with plauing time projections it is that something with which you have to do a lot of manual tweaking?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

There is no manual tweaking until I get to actually doing team projections

Though we will set it up this year that the projections on the team pages will be pro-rated to depth chart playing time

12:40

ZiPS using past history, very generalized injury information, age, position, etc. for playing time. It's designed and intended to be an agnostic projection for team decisions

I don't want a projection system to tell me when it thinks the Dodgers will give Verdugo playing time, I want a projection system to tell me the performance that is "available" for the Dodgers to use, whether it's in MLB or AAA or whatever

Dan

12:41

Also, any idea why it seems Zips has become more bullish on minor league relievers? And, can I take credit as the person who made you project like every reliever above high A ever?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

No particular reason! I do have a better model for minor league BABIP that uses some play-by-play data.

12:42

Seriously, I have the R^2 at a little over 0.6 for minor league BABIP versus expected, using only play-by-play data (no BABIP in there)

Tim

12:43

Dan, I have to say, you have one strange (in a good way!) mind. Your Twitter is genius. Back to baseball. I've seen projections for two trendy 2Bs, Garrett Hampson and Jeff McNeil, all over the place, from 250 ABs-500 ABs. What are your Zip-py thoughts on each as you prepare to project them? Thanks!

Dan Szymborski

12:43

Secret to getting questions answered is no doubt playing to my vanity

I haven't released projections fro either, I expect McNeil's to be better.

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