JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/7/19

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sportznut

12:54

How dumb are NL to consider Nick Castellanos a Plan B to Bryce Harper when he can't play in the field, and will Avila be able to unload him for halfway decent value?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

Yeah, Castellanos is a very poor Harper Plan B

He's just not a super-valuable all-around player

12:55

That came off as meaner than I intended

He's likely averageish, I just don't think he has that extra J.D. Martinez gear in there

12:55

Are the Red Sox just completely wrong about their catching situation? That was their #1 need, right? And they went out and got a SP and an platoon 1B.

Dan Szymborski

12:56

I don't think they've done anything that prevents them from doing stuff at catcher that they would have done without the other moves

Bort Sampson

12:56

For a while, the KBO has been considered somewhere in the Single-A to Double-A talent range. With Kang, Thames, and Ryu making solid waves in the MLB, do you think that range has moved at all?

Dan Szymborski

12:56

I've had them around AA the whole time

sportznut

12:57

The Tigers have a number of high profile pitching specs coming up in the next year or two. Give us a hitter other than Cameron or Paredes that we can look forward to.

Dan Szymborski

12:57

Well, they do have Austin Meadows' kid brother

CamdenWarehouse

12:58

Is David Fletcher a little intriguing?

Dan Szymborski

12:58

A little

12:59

He won't maintain +20 defense in all likelihood, but he hit very well at AAA last year]]

tom

12:59

dogs > cats. fight me.

Dan Szymborski

12:59

I've got nothing against cats

err dogs

I just don't want to wake up at 6 AM and walk a dog

1:00

and my dumb cat would probably be terrified of one since he's terrified of everything

Pizza Face

1:02

Dan are using ARIMA to project the players stats for the 2019 season?

Dan Szymborski

1:02

I don't explicitly use an ARIMA model

Joe

1:03

As an Orioles fan, I am feeling a weird feeling. I think it's...hope?

Dan Szymborski

1:03

It is a very weird feeling

Mandy is 92% Fresh

1:03

Will you be doing any more Fangraphs podcasts? You are quite polished from your radio appearances and surprisingly jovial.

Dan Szymborski

1:03

That's the plan!

I haven't done much radio for a few weeks other than Gennaro in SiriusXM because my voice was really awful while I was sick

Joe

1:04

I know the consensus position on opt outs is that they are always bad for the team, but I have some trouble getting fully on board. If you're talking about a year 5 opt out for Harper, say, in a 10 year deal, wouldn't you almost hope he takes it? Not only that, given the amount of emphasis players put on opt outs, couldn't you potentially get a guy for less money overall?

Dan Szymborski

1:04

Yeah, but you'd potentially get a guy for less money overall in situations where you want to *not* get him for less money overall

1:05

Take Hosmer. It'll usually be an eight-year deal when the Padres would want a five-year deal and usually a five-year deal when the Padres would want eight.

It essentially lops off a whole bunch of success results for the Padres without lopping off a similar bunch of failure results

1:06

If Hosmer is worth 5/105 *and* is in a situation in which he can do better than 3/39, it would usually be in a situation in whichthe Padres would prefer him at 3/39 than 0/0

Irrational Man

1:07

Could Jung Ho Kang be worth the risk at SS to see if he has anything left there?

Dan Szymborski

1:07

Yes

A question

1:07

does honda make electric cars? e-honda would be a great name for that line

RIck Hahn

1:07

please tell me Giolito doesn't suck.

Dan Szymborski

1:07

He might, but we're not SURE

aka22

1:07

What does ZIPS stand for?

Dan Szymborski

1:07

Szymborski Projection system

Joe

1:07

Right, but even if you lose three productive seasons, you still got 5 presumably great ones. And once guys get into their thirties, what are the odds they'll even have 3-5 more good years?

Dan Szymborski

1:08

BUt the point is that you lose those seasons

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