JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/7/2021

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TLivingston

12:36

Passan just said that Lindor to the Mets is possibly in the works. NL East faves if that happens?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

Not sure about favorites, but it makes them mightly interesting

Scoops McClatchy

12:37

Robert Stephenson didn't get a zips projection because he got traded during your list-making endeavor. Will there be an update with guys you may have missed? Also, Ryan Weathers didn't get a projection.

Dan Szymborski

12:37

Everyone will be in the database in the near future!

12:38

Just a heads-up, I have some emergency writing to do, so we're only going to 12:45 today.

Barrett

12:39

Do you manually account for injuries somehow? If a player has a few really good seasons and then one bad one due to injuries, are you somehow putting less weight on that bad season than you normally would?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

ZiPS does have injury data which it uses

There are *no* manual changes in ZiPS projections as a matter of design philosophy.

Even if I *knew* it would make the projections better I would not.

12:40

The only manual part is if I tell ZiPS to change position or team or starter/reliever role.

In that case, ZiPS is merely translating it to new context for algorithms.

It goes back to Hendricks vs. Kim earlier.

I personally would prefer Hendricks over Kim.

But my personal feelings have *zero* input. It's what the model captures.

Guest

12:40

Sounds like the trade may be Lindor and Carrasco together...

Guest

12:40

the healing balm this nation needs is a soundcloud of Dan singing laverne and shirley

Dan Szymborski

12:41

For enxt week!

But you may need to remind me as I'm stupid.

Little Jonny

12:41

Do you believe the Kyle Lewis Zips projections for 2021? I know the system doesn't factor in something like the drawn out recovery from his gruesome injury - he just seems like the type of player that'll improve.

Dan Szymborski

12:41

Lewis is a tough one. I talked about it in the M's projecitons.

12:42

(Though I didn't talk about the knee)

But the fact remains that the body of work prior to the majors just wasn't there, so a projection system isn't really going to leap on that

12:43

Like 2019. That wasn't a minor league line that suggests good MLB performance imminently

Now, ZiPS projection for Lewis *did* go up quite a lot

12:45

OK guys, have to cut this short as I have a trade to write about.

12:46

Thanks for coming everyone!

Older than you

12:46

It would still be great to see a ZIPs time warp of either Bonds or Clemens from when they started to age normally the first time and before it appears they start to aggressively use PEDs.

Dan Szymborski

12:47

Won't see this from me as I've been unable to find any evidence of unusual projection overachievements for players busted for PEDs as a group, at any point in their careers before or any underprojection afterwards. I've been trying to find this for a decade now.

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