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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/8/26

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Dan Szymborski

12:37

Big Sally

12:38

Singer for an OF bat makes sense for the Reds, right? Who should they target in your opinion? Jo Adell?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

This might be the team that would get one of the biggest boosts from Kyle Tucker, not that they will!

12:39

It would have been fun for them to go after Duran, but who the hell knows if they can meet what the Sox want

2 parter

12:39

Does ZIPS account for home park dimensions? And, (not ZIPS) are home park statistics independent of the caliber of home park line up? Thank you

Dan Szymborski

12:39

Yes, yes

Dr. Curvegood

12:39

If we assume Tucker to Toronto, what do you think is the likelihood that Bichette and Bregman end up one in Boston and one in Chicago?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

I'm not sure I'm particularly insightful here, but I can totally see Brichette in Boston. Not sure about Breggy location if he doesn't resign though

Matt

12:40

Are you worried that will a lockout will lead to a shortened season in 2027?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

Yes

After the COVID-lockout corridor, I'm quite sensitive to situations in which my job doesn't exist for a while

Doug

12:41

Judge took it to 'never seen this before' level at age 30. Think there is a similiar monster waiting to be released in Yordan?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

I mean there could be, but what makes Judge special is that people don't usually go that insane

danny

12:41

is there any reason to still use DRS for anything?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

FRV is better, but I find you actually project FRV slightly better with a tiny DRS weight

So ZiPS at the MLB level uses about 87% FRV, 14% DRS

jazzrunner

12:42

I don't understand how HoF voters look at the steroid issues of 90s and 00s. This is because: 1) they were legal when players started to use them early in the decade 2) there was a crazy economic incentive to use them (millions of dollars) 3) most players used them 4) MLB enforcement was lax especially in the beginning 5) analysts can still evaluate their performance versus their peers. Finally, as a thought experiment, if you gave a bunch of saber experts an extra $3M a year to do coke or some other illicit substance which would dramatically improve their ability to forecast...what percentage would take them?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

I think it comes down to philosophical priors, since the Hall's feelings have been muddy and inconsistent

12:43

I consider PEDs a rule-based thing; breaking a rule is the infraction, not the performance-enhancing aspect

like corked bats or spitballs

12:44

and even though I'm far from convinced on the *efficacy* -- there's no pattern of PED-caught players having different aging/projection patterns, either before or after being caught -- I totally buy that the mens rea of cheating is different from efficacy (like corked bats)

12:45

so for ME, it *is* something I weight, under the character clause (which based on early Hall history and the discussions of the wording, I interpret as being baseball-linked character, not general character)

But not as an in/out binary

If I thought Ryan Braun was an uncertain Hall of Famer on the merits, it would "break the tie" for me negatively

12:46

Similarly, I do consider the trashcan stuff as an attempt to cheat, but again, something to be weighed, not a binary thing

(and I'm even less convinced about the efficacy there)

12:47

If a player confessed to being tricked and told something was a steroid, but it was just tic tacs, I would count that negatively against them

Time Traveling Stowaway

12:47

Hi Dan! Happy 2026. When are you going to with your brand spanking new time machine?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

It's safer for the timeline if I just blackmail people to NOT use the time machine and change their history

bringbackpologrounds

12:48

How long can Lindor stick at SS? It's become so grueling in recent years. I believe Bogaerts and Betts were the oldest full-timers (both turned 33 in Oct), and they're only one year older than Lindor.

Dan Szymborski

12:48

He's still good enough that quite a while remaining

Holiday Foodstuffs

12:50

What was the best meal that you ate over the holidays?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

My mom left me a big box of chicken milanese at my house when I wasn't home

Mom never really cooked all that much, but she is a master at double breading things, and with no flour either.

12:53

I did make königsberger klopse which I really enjoy, but I used too much allspice and not enough anchovy this time, so it wasn't one of my better batches

Lord Thunder

12:53

How much longer does CJ Abrams have before he's moved off SS?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

Probably when he's a FA

TomBruno23

12:54

Papermoon Diner was our favorite spot to eat in Baltimore during our visit. Felt like I was living in Pee-Wee's Playhouse.

Dan Szymborski

12:54

There's also that feeling that something is going to crash from the ceilign and kill you