JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/9/2020

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Dan Szymborski

12:22

Bob Smith

12:23

Who is the worst baseball player ever

Dan Szymborski

12:23

Ray Oyler?

Skip

12:23

I know we have a tendency to devalue nostalgia here, but have you even seen the original Chili's menu from 1975? It has both bean and non-bean chili. It also has a chili taco. Why can't we go back to those days?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

Do you really want to culinarily go back to the 1970s?

12:24

12:25

Eminor3rd

12:28

Is there anything stopping a team doing a Bryant deal that has a PTBNL-style contingency based on the outcome of the grievance? Or are the potential outcomes more numerous than we think?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

I think it's hard to have a contingent plan

A team's interest may be *very* different based on result

James

12:28

Will baseball ever

Dan Szymborski

12:28

Perhaps

Nick

12:28

Which division race do you expect to be closest next year?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

NL East should be a barnburner

Larry

12:29

Any chance of getting projection for Pierce Johnson who signed after you did Padres ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

Sure, I'll amke sure to do it soon

Nolan

12:29

Is Shogo Akiyama a true center fielder? I've heard conflicting reports on his defensive abilities.

Dan Szymborski

12:29

I've heard conflicting reports as well.

He's probably at least acceptable-ish I would guess.

NPB defensive data is worse than minor league data

12:30

For minor league data, I have the locations of every hit and calculate probability of each hit ball being played

I don't have that for NPB

tom

12:30

when will zips make it into ootp?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

It does every year now!

Alex

12:30

Dan, do you think the Red Sox will get punished almost as severely for their illegaL sign stealing operation as the Astros given this is their 2nd public offense in the last 3 years and they had already been directly warned by Manfred?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

I think the punishments will be comparable

Robert Contract

12:30

What's your take on the Robert contract? Seems like the Sox gave him a pretty reasonable deal considering how bad the Braves hosed Acuna/Albies.

Dan Szymborski

12:30

It's a fairer contract, I feel. Especially versus Albies

12:31

Who essentially got Scott Kingery's deal

Joe

12:33

Do the Orioles need to be this bad? Should they be trying to be better this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

I'm really tough on teams that have a hope of being competitive being cheap

For a team like the O's, I don't know what it would actually accomplish

There's practically no evidence that attendance reacts to minor free agent spending

12:34

There's no marketing benefit to third-tier free agents nor will they really add wins

12:35

I'll bash a team for being an 83-win team refusing to invest in being an 85-win team.

But I'll never do that with a 63-win team not caring to drop millions to be a 65-win team.

Mark

12:35

Is it harder to project catchers? I have seen so many catcher project as really high and never amount to anything as a pro. Toby Hall comes to mind.

Dan Szymborski

12:35

Catchers are weird - they tend to drop off suddnely or come out of nowhere

Alex

12:35

Dan, what odds would you put on the Astros getting each of the following levels of punishment by extremity: a. Lifetime ban for Luhnow, 1 year suspension for Hinch, $50+ Mil fine, loss of multiple years worth of top draft picks and IFA pool $
b. Full year suspension for Luhnow, 81 game suspension for Hinch, $30+ Mil fine, loss of 1 year of draft picks and IFA pool $
c. Half season suspension for Luhnow, 40 game suspension for Hinch, $15 Mil fine, loss of this year’s 1st and 2nd round picks and 75% of IFA pool $

Dan Szymborski

12:35

80/15/5

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