Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 10/3/16
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Dan Szymborski
12:00
Peanut butter jelly time.
No dancing bananas. Just shut up and eat your sandwich.
Tim
12:01
I'm a big Dodgers fan, what is the teams #1 concern?
Dan Szymborski
12:01
There's some angry Babylonian god that's focused primarily on making their starting pitchers injured.
Or having to go through the Cubs at some point
Erik
12:01
If a team made all of their signings and trades based strictly on ZiPS, never allowing themselves to allow their own intuitions to have any affect, how much better or worse off would they be than a typical organization? What type of great moves would they pull off? What would their biggest blunders be?
Dan Szymborski
12:02
It's hard to tell - I don't like planning like that, because understanding projections means knowing what projections and mean and *don't* mean.
CamdenWarehouse
12:02
Is the total WAR across the majors usually in line with what was projected by most projection systems?
Dan Szymborski
12:02
Yes
Once you know the playing time, of course.
If you just adde dup ZiPS, since I do like 2300 guys, you'd get way more WAR because a lot of those guys will be in the minors
Erik
12:02
Is there an easy way to compare all players against their preseason ZiPS projections, to find the biggest hits and misses of the year? Or do you know off hand some interestingly accurate or inaccurate projections?
Dan Szymborski
12:03
There are a number of math ways to do it. I do my own work internally, but I have an insurmountable conflict of interest so simply provide data for third parties.
Moltar
12:03
How crazy was the last 6 weeks of the Mets' season? They had a %6.3 chance at the playoffs in late august and lost 3 top pitchers (4 if you can count Wheeler).
Dan Szymborski
12:04
Yeah, ZiPS had them getting as low as 8% when they were 66% in June.
JDX
12:04
Past 2 calendar years... wOBA leaders... Votto (.420), Trout (.417), Cabrera (.405). I don't think a lot of people realize how good a hitter Votto is/has been.
Dan Szymborski
12:04
Especially a segment of Reds fans and Brennamanms.
Chuncey Wiggins
12:04
You are tasked with hiding a bear trap somewhere in the infield. Where do you place it to create the most devastating blow?
Dan Szymborski
12:04
First base line. Most traffic and most straightforward path.
Chuncey Wiggins
12:05
Which player has been involved in the most replay challenges? Why can't I find this information anywhere?
Dan Szymborski
12:05
I hvae no idea.
Art Vandelay
12:05
In your opinion, was this Verlander's last great year?
Dan Szymborski
12:05
I wouldn't necessarily say that. He's striking out guys again.
Eric Weinstein
12:05
Why is David Ortiz viewed as a slam dunk to get into the HOF but Sammy Sosa struggles to stay on the ballot? Sosa has a 10 WAR advantage. Ortiz closes that gap somewhat with his postseason heroics and the DH penalty. But Sosa has some other big non-WAR credentials: Three 60 HR seasons, an MVP and being one of the most famous athletes, not just baseball players, of his time. And Sosa and Ortiz failed the same steroid test.
Dan Szymborski
12:05
PEDs are evaluated arbitrarily.
12:06
I'm telling you, if Jeter had been caught using PEDs, Bonds is in the Hall right now.
Robbie
12:06
What do you do after the postseason ends? I was thinking of trying fantasy basketball to give myself another sport to care about in the offseason. There's only so much speculation and ranking I can do for next season
Dan Szymborski
12:06
Baseball offseason!
And game stuff. BlizzCon happens after the season and I might be there depending on how we cover it
Erik
12:06
FanGraphs has the Red Sox on nearly equal WS odds to the Cubs. Are they actually equally good teams? Or is the AL considerably easier to get through than the NL?
Dan Szymborski
12:07
I th ink the AL is weaker - ZiPS certainly has the Cubs favored though.
I don't know FanGraphs method for the playoff odds, so I can't comment on it really
CarrotJuice
12:07
Did you think AJ Preller's suspension was sufficient in length, or should he have been suspended longer?
Dan Szymborski
12:07
I think the team should have been punished severely - there's no way he did that all by himself
The Lure of the Animal
12:07
Is it now safe to say that the Ryan Howard contract was the worst in MLB history? $125M for -2.1 WAR.
Dan Szymborski
12:07
And that's the kind one - BR had him at -4.4 WAR.
12:08
It's up there.
Obvious Fantasy Question
12:08
Pick 2: Archer, Rodon, Cotton, Reyes
Dan Szymborski
12:08
Reyes, Archer
JT
12:08
Justin Verlander leads the AL in WAR and strikeouts and 2nd in ERA only behind a few hundredths of a run in a pretty weak starting pitcher class. However britton has the ERA. Any chance we see a reliever win CYA or are those days behind us?
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