JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 11/19/18

Dan Szymborski

12:00

GOBBLE GOBBLE

ChiSox2020

12:01

If White Sox don't get Machado or Harper, should they pursue Grandal? How much should the loss of a 2nd round pick factor into any FA signings?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

Honestly, I think the White Sox should be in a go big or go home mindset. Unless they get players who are build-arounds that will be around for the rest of the rebuilding process, I think they should mostly chase deals. Those mid-market FAs are better fits for the actually competitive teams.

Tony Kemp is religion

12:02

Would you ever make your long-term forecasts available? I'm sure a lot of people (including myself!) would pay a small sum to access them. Free is also OK! I really want to see Soto's long-term forecasts with "really really big numbers!"

Dan Szymborski

12:03

I'm a bit of a data hoarder. You'll start to see more things come out at FG, but still figuring out what's best to make public and what's best to greedily save for articles and such.

Jackson C.

12:03

Mondays start to get a bit depressing for me as winter approaches. Any tips for remaining sane in this cold, baseball-less time?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Alcohol

Joe

12:03

Any reason to think Hedges improvement at the plate in the second half of last season is anything other than SSS? Any hope he develops into an average hitter?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

I'm cautiously optimistic, there were periods he hits in the minors, too. He's been all over the map though, from solid to terrible, a bit like Zunino.

squeeze bunt

12:05

I'm curious of the trade value of Thor. What do you think fair value would be from the Padres?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

A fair Syndergaard package would be around the level of the Sale trade, I think. Both had three cost-controlled years remaining (Sale because of a cheap deal, Thor because he'll just be in arbitration)

12:07

Kopech was generally 5-15 at the time, if memory serves.

12:08

So Gore would be the obvious comparison. Maybe him and Morejon filling in for Moncada (the Padres aren't likely to give up Gore *and* Urias after all), then maybe Naylor and an interesting a-baller?

12:09

I'd obviously have mixed feelings about such a trade. The Red Sox were far more competitive in the now at that time than the Padres are now.

Though Thor is terrific; it'd be worth considering of course.

But I think I'd want a window to agree on an extension

Slingsby

12:09

Does a Syndergaard trade make sense for the Mets? Could they work in a third team to make a guy like realmuto part of the haul?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

I think that makes too many moving parts.

CamdenWarehouse

12:10

It only took a few months at Fangraphs for you to defeat Carson. I sure hope I don't become your enemy.

Dan Szymborski

12:10

He had to flee the COUNTRY

Maker Bayfield

12:11

Highest to lowest trade return for Indians starting pitchers is Bauer, Kluber, Carrasco, right?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

Not sure Bauer gets more than Kluber. Remember, you get 3 years of Kluber and Bauer's a FA after 2020

And while Kluber's not making peanuts, anybody who wants Kluber doesn't care about 13 per

Dbo

12:11

Any Thanksgiving recipes that you want to share with us?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

I don't think I have anything particularly interesting

12:12

I just make the turkey

Which I brine and then make in the rotisserie

Kristen

12:12

Thanks for doing these chats! What could rebuilding TEX get for Minor?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

They could likely snag a second-tier guy. I know of a few organizations who have interest, his name's popped upa lot.

Also, I'm saving the off topic ones for the Lightning Round.

The final boss

12:13

Do you foresee a similar glacial pace for veteran FAs this offseason? How many Adam Jones types sign disappointing one year deals?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

After the top stars, yes.

Not wanting to pass the luxury tax threshold was a factor last year, but far from the only one.

12:15

There's still not much of an incentive to overpay for middling talent, so it's more like going to the store than an auction

And some guys will have very disappointing years. I think Moustakas falls short of his one-year mutual option

And I sense that tension from agents I've talked with.

And you see some data points - I don't think you see Escobar signing for just $7 million per if there wasn't some concern there.

12:16

And

I gotta stop that

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