JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 11/19/20

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Johnny5Alive

12:22

Mets fans obviously excited about the new ownership and actually kinda happy about Cano in terms of the possibilities, but do you really pay out Ace money to Bauer coming off 1 dominant year when the career track record is good not great? Also, I think I would prefer mccannn to realmuto and use the money elsewhere since catcher contracts rarely work out.

Dan Szymborski

12:22

I think you're underrating him a bit.

John

12:23

Kolten wong, 30 years old, all his pop in his bat is gone, stellar defense. Non-tendered for 1/12. What do you think happens?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

at this poitn, who knows?

Dbo

12:23

If my intent is to make a sandwich but I’m blind and accidentally leave the bread hinged then put the fillings in, is that a sandwich?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

No. Sandwich construction is strict liability.

VanHalenII

12:24

What makes the Dodgers better than the Padres going into 2021? Pitching? Bottom of the lineup?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

Slightly better depth and slightly better top pitchers.

12:25

Zips question: Are you cross-validating the seasonal weights to account for the shortened 2020? I’m uncomfortable with the idea of extrapolating 600 PAs based on 200. If not, is cross validation a reasonable approach to pursue?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

ZiPS isn't extrapolating from 200.

12:26

The approach that worked best for future projections, in 1981 to 1982, was treating it like it was mid-july and the were still ~50 games to be played, and running a rest-of-season projection to make the baseline.

Appa Yip Yip

12:26

What do you think the Mets do at second base now? They can't commit to anyone long term because Cano has two more years on his contract, so luring anyone good is gonna be tough, but also they're good enough to contend.

Dan Szymborski

12:26

I think it's possible Cano doesn't ever play another game for the Mets.

12:27

One thing a hedge fund manager shoudl know is a sunk cost.

Plus, it might not even be an issue - given the weakness of the option, there will very likely be some short-term options.

Mad Joe-Don

12:27

If I wanted to move the pitcher's mound back, what's the maximum distance before it's disruptive to breaking balls? <6''?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

I think the tricky part is how well pitchers can adjust and I just don't really know that.

12:28

With the lack of free agent options at 3B, do you think it would be feasible for a team to target DJ LeMahieu as a potential fit at the position? Maybe a team that shifts a bunch anyway?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

Feels like a bit of a waste.

12:29

Some of his value is that he's been a really good 2B

Maybe if it shifts *another* dude to third.

12:30

But just using him at third, that's like buying a Ferrari and then having it repainted gray.

Appa Yip Yip

12:30

Why move the mound back when you can simply raise the bottom of the strike zone?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

I'd be more interested in deadening the ball.

Buck Farmers Only

12:30

If KC has extra money (and no real position player prospects breaking in this year), is there any harm loading up on cheap 1 year deals, especially if the free agent market tanks?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

Not really.

Though the risk in KC is that they then get attached to the player.

Matt

12:30

Does Arozarena's postseason performance have any impact on his zips projection?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

Yes

TomBruno23

12:30

Who plays you in the Randy Arozarena biopic?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

I'm not sure I would be a character.

12:31

And without Philip Seymour Hoffman, I don't know who can capture my gravitas!

Mad Joe-Don

12:32

So you're saying we need to be sneaky about moving mounds. Message received!

Buck Farmers Only

12:32

Can CJ Cron pull a Luke Voigt?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

That's easier said than done!

John

12:32

dont keep us in suspense - what do Arozarena’s ZIPs look like? Mantle, bonds ?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

Part of the ZiPS season IS the suspense!

If I give you guys all the good bits, what's the fun of coming back to check!

Chris

12:32

Drew smyly got how much???

Dan Szymborski

12:33

I was surprised given his health record.

Connecting…

Message History

On Off

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Dan Szymborski hosts a chat