Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 11/21/16
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Dan Szymborski
12:01
MAKE CHAT GO NOW.
Matt
12:01
What could Jorge Soler bring back in a trade?
Dan Szymborski
12:03
Not all that much these days as even though he's young, he hasn't taken a step forward and hasn't even been all that healthy. It'd be sell low now for sure.
Matt
12:03
Would a trade of Soler, Eloy, Candelario, and Cease be enough for Archer?
Dan Szymborski
12:03
I think the Rays would actually take that. Soler's shine is off, but there's a lot oto like in that trade.
Kiermaier's Piercing Blue Eyes
12:04
What's your take on the Rays-Mariners trade?
Dan Szymborski
12:04
Honestly, mostly a shuffle of role players.
Matt M
12:04
Joey Gallo and Cole Ragans for Vince Velasquez
Dan Szymborski
12:05
If the Rangers trade Gallo, I suspect it's someone with more certainty but a lower ceiling.
Ronnie
12:05
Cleveland was the only small market/revenue team in the playoffs this year. Is this a one year blip or is the ever shrinking information gap making it that much harder for the poorer teams to compete?
Dan Szymborski
12:06
I think it's too soon to draw conclusions. Remember, some of the advantages rebuilding teams have to gain value on the rebuild are built-in, no matter what the information gap is
As long as small market teams can get low-cost assets that are cost-controlled through baseball's mechanisms, small markets can leverage rebuilds into quality teams.
Roadhog
12:06
Could the A's sign Fowler, Moss, and Thames and just roll into 2017 with every prospect intact?
Dan Szymborski
12:07
They could, but it seems rather uninspiring to make the team older and more expensive just to make a run at 79 wins.
Ronnie
12:07
With the wildly divergent nature of DRS/UZR how impressive is it that JJ Hardy has ranked positively by both systems in every one of his 12 seasons with the exception of DRS in 2010?
Dan Szymborski
12:07
DRS/UZR isn't highly divergent, there's a high correlation between the two. There are *some* disagreements, but they mostly agree.
Buck Saltwater
12:07
What would the framework of an Adam Eaton trade look like?
Dan Szymborski
12:08
No Jerry Reinsdorf. I don't believe they have the willingness or patience to do a full rebuild.
cheese
12:08
Would a package from the Dodgers of Alvarez, Buehler, Verdugo, and Calhoun be enough for Sale? Ie, could they get him without including DeLeon and Bellinger? DeLeon seems like he’s going to be an important piece for a win-now club this year, and Bellinger’s timeline lines up perfectly with AGon’s departure in two years, so seems like it would particularly hurt to lose those two. Is 4 top-100 prospects, including two big upside arms, enough?
Dan Szymborski
12:08
I think you're going to have to include DeLeon. And again, going back to the White Sox, I'm not sure they're at the point at which they'll really trade Sale for a realistic package.
12:10
I think they're still at the stage at which they're going "Oh, we'll totally move Sale, because presumably we'll get something crazy like Benitendi/Moncada/Devers/Kopech/Travis/Groome!"
Benintendi
sorry
Benintentional mistake.
Ronnie
12:11
Dylan Bundy made 1.8 million last year on the final season of the MLB contract he signed after being drafted but he isn't eligible for Arbys until 2019. How much can/will the O's cut his salary next year?
Dan Szymborski
12:11
1.8 correct? Thought it was like 1.2/1.3. Regardless, the maximum salary cut from a previous season is 20%.
12:12
(for a player not yet eligible for arbitration)
Would be kinda poor long-term thinking to try to cut an actual contributor to save 250K just because they have the ability to do so
v2micca
12:12
Okay, what does St. Louis see in Brett Cecil that I'm missing. I get that by projected WAR, its pretty close to market value, but 4 years on something as volatile as a relief pitcher? I thought St. Louis was generally one of those teams good at finding surplus value in their signings. I'm not seeing any here.
Dan Szymborski
12:13
I think the issue you'll see a lot is that teams will have trouble squeezing out value in FA signings, so when they choose to make one, it'll be pricey
TomBruno23
12:13
Thoughts on the Brett Cecil signing (another spider for the K classroom)?
Dan Szymborski
12:15
Slightly more than ZiPS would pay (4/24, which includes LI) but you're going to see quite a bit of this. We'll see if/when Matheny misuses Cecil as a loogy.
Elton
12:15
Everyone is predicting Jason Heyward will bounce back with the bat at least somewhat in 2017. What this question presupposes is: what if he doesn't? When does it stop being too soon for the Cubs to give up, eat some salary to let another team try and fix him, and reclaim that spot in the lineup for someone who can hit?
Dan Szymborski
12:15
Well, if he doesn't bounce back at all, the contract is one of the worst contracts in MLB history.
12:16
Fate is cruel - not every disaster contract was ill conceived
Jorge
12:18
Where do the angels go at second base?, no trade chips and horrible free agent class
Dan Szymborski
12:18
I'm not sure they even know at this point.
I can see thetm going after Chase Utley
Chuncey Wiggins
12:18
What MLB award is the closest in spirit to a glorified participation trophy?
Dan Szymborski
12:19
MVP maybe since there's this weird obsession with saddling a player with their team's quality there?
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