Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 11/28/16
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Dan Szymborski
12:50
Personally, I think the crossover between political beliefs into every aspect of interaction in daily life has contributed to the widening of people.
Not sure that's the right term at the end. Actually it isn't
12:51
But the polarization will just get worse if *everything* has to be about politics.
Cactus Man
12:51
What are your thoughts on the Segura/Walker swap?
Dan Szymborski
12:51
Fair for both sides, boringly enough.
rustydude
12:51
Is the closest comp of Bryant to Santo pure coincidence in that it's the same team and same position?
Dan Szymborski
12:51
Pure coincidence - team isn't part of comps.
Marc
12:51
Melancon back to the Pirates at 4/50. Crazy or Crazy enough that it might make sense? Especially if they aquire a 2/3 thru a trade?
Dan Szymborski
12:51
Meh. The Pirates got where they are by not giving closers 4/50.
Cactus Man
12:52
If you had your druthers, which former Baseballers would be inducted in the Hall of Fame this time around?
Dan Szymborski
12:53
Bonds, Schilling, Clemens, Mussina, Bagwell, Walker, Raines, Edgar, Manny, Pudge are all *easy* choices.
Have to think a bit more on Kent, Sheffield, Vlad, Sosa, but them too.
On the borderline McGriff, Posada, Wagner, Hoffman, and I'm inclined to say yes on McGriff, no on Posada, Wagner, and I'm not really sure on Hoffman.
Kristen
12:54
If LAD needs a 2B'man, chances Profar could bring TEX back one or two of their non-Urias/DeLeon SP prospects like Brock Stewart/Yadier Alvarez?
Dan Szymborski
12:54
Low.
12:55
Very low.
Profar's trade value just isn't all that high - the reasons he was an amazing prospect are all like four years old now.
He's still young, but you don't get that development time back.
12:56
He has less trade value than D'Angelo Jimenez had with the Padres - Jimenez performed better and missed less time with his serious injury.
Michael
12:56
Obviously a lot can still change in a career, but surprised ZiPS doesn't think Bryant is on a HoF track with that projection.
Dan Szymborski
12:56
When did ZiPS say Bryant was not on a Hall of Fame track?
12:58
It would be unusual if it did and I didn't know about it, given that I'm the only one who accesses ZiPS.
Rick Hahn
12:58
Who ends up giving me the best package for Sale?
Dan Szymborski
12:58
The suitors in the White Sox imaginations.
NutButters
12:58
Jeff Sullivan says Jonathan Holder is the most dominant relief pitching prospect. Does the most dominant relief prospect deserve a top 100 prospect spot? Interested in value perceived.
Dan Szymborski
12:58
I'd say yes, but in the back end.
EC
12:59
What is the financial cost of Aroldis Chapman being a not good person? Has to take at least a bit of air out of his market?
Dan Szymborski
12:59
I think it's less of a big deal a year on.
See the difference in package the Yankees got him at and the Cubs got him at.
I don't think that's *just* the Reds being deluded, though that obviously plays a role in things they do.
Colin
12:59
As much as we Cubs fan would like to think Jorge Soler will bring back Chris Archer in a trade, a Soler for Sean Doolittle (or insert any reliever/lower starter) trade is more likely, right? Maybe Soler for 3 years of Verlander if the Cubs want to really win now?
Dan Szymborski
1:00
Soler won't fetch Verlander.
A rliever/lower starter is about right.
mtsw
1:01
Adam Jones plays unusually shallow for a CF. Is he a good candidate to improve by just lining up deeper (like Dexter Fowler did successfully in 2016) or is he just not athletic enough to be in CF anymore?
Dan Szymborski
1:01
I think he actually isn't *quite* as shallow as he was earlier in his career, though still very shallow.
1:02
I just don't think he's all that fast.
Matt
1:02
For your ZiPS projections, how do you come to estimate PAs? Is there some method to the madness, or is that more art than science (ie your personal estimation of the players' share of playing time)?
Dan Szymborski
1:02
There's zero personal estimation. I keep the plain-jane ZiPS projections with as little input from me as possible.
Outside of sometimes projecting at a different position, I have zero input on the projection.
ZiPS uses history, quality, rudimentary injury data, and age.
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