Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 11/7/16
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Dan Szymborski
11:59
Main screen turn on.
12:00
Been a few weeks since I did a chat - first I was away and then I haven't been very social (lost a cat very suddenly and unexpectedly). No chat this week (traveling), but should hopefully settle into a normal pattern during the ZiPS Season.
JD15
12:01
Yesterday the Cubs declined the option on Jason Hammel which seemed very reasonable considering current market. Even if they didn't plan to use him next year, wouldn't it have made sense to pick up the option and trade him? Do you think this is Cubs trying to be "good people" by allowing Hammel to pick his own team (and make more money) or is it more likely medical related?
Dan Szymborski
12:01
And I'm holding the off-topics for the Lightning Round, for those that forgot.
12:02
I would have picked up the option. Since they had a $2 million buyout anyway, it was essentially an option to pick up Hammel at 1/8, which I absolutely would have taken.
I believe it was a mistake to not pick it up.
Rick Roll
12:02
Baseball is a collection of unnatural movements designed to injure all the things.
Kiermaier's Piercing Blue Eyes
12:03
Any comments on Brent Honeywell after his Fall Star game start?
Dan Szymborski
12:03
Screwballs are awesome.
Bork
12:03
Any non-predicted qualifying offers issued today?
Dan Szymborski
12:04
If I answered that, then I would be predicting and thus it would non-non-predicted!
Cinclair
12:04
Hey dan. Love these chats. Can you tell me out of these 3 contracts, which have positive trade value, and by approximately how much: Granderson at 15mil/1yr, Bruce at 13mil/1yr and Lagares at 20mil/3yrs (+9mil club option). Thank you, much appreciated
Dan Szymborski
12:05
Bruce probably not, he's just not that good. Lagares isn't a bad value at all given there's a chance that he comes back healthy. Granderson ought to be worth his contract by a few million, I think.
Minty
12:05
Not trying to get a ZiPS out of you, but based on your gut does Baez ever develop offensive consistency?
Dan Szymborski
12:05
Yeah
Robin
12:05
How many "Trout for X" questions do you think we'll have to suffer through each chat? Some of the in season ones basically became as miserable as the trolls asking you about Markakis
Dan Szymborski
12:06
Very few, I mostly get Nick Markakis quesetions.
Josh
12:06
A likely Andrew McCutchen trade seems a bit overblown to me. It's not as if the team is floundering - they'll likely be competing for a playoff spot. Seeing as though Meadows isn't quite ready, does a trade mid-summer or next winter make more sense?
Dan Szymborski
12:07
You can't predict what future time a trade will be best that well, it depends on the offers. I *would* be inclined to trade him fairly soon, probably this winter if someone stillr eally believes in him.
It's really tiem to get him out of center.
Ethan
12:07
Hi Dan. What do you and/or ZiPS think of Carlos Gomez? Burnt out, washed up, etc., or do you think there's still a good, dynamic player in there somewhere? Seems like he's flying under the radar right now, even in this weak FA market, and some team might get a steal by signing him to a cheap, short-term deal.
Dan Szymborski
12:08
He was actually quite solid for a couple months at the end - I'd wager hte gets a fairly inexpensvie two-year deal and is a decent stopgap for someone.
Jim
12:08
The Depth Charts projections for the Red Sox' DH spot make me sad inside. Assuming Encarnacion prices himself out of range, is Valbuena a suitable target?
Dan Szymborski
12:09
Interesting, but I'm not sure EE can price himself out of range of teams like the Red Sox.
Ethan
12:09
Any thoughts on Carson Kelly? He had a much better year with the bat, and is continuing that trend with the relatively few PAs he's gotten in the Fall League. Everybody raves about his defense, but I'm not sure how much to believe that or not; catcher defense is so dang hard to quantify.
Dan Szymborski
12:09
I'm cautiously optimistic - he did show large improvements offensively in the minors this year.
12:10
DISCLAIMER: I was cautiously optimistic about Bryan Anderson
Toki
12:10
With such a thin market for FA starters do the Cubs move Arrieta? Rather than use up his arbitration this year and lose him in free agency?
Dan Szymborski
12:10
No.
Go Braves
12:10
Would Steve Matz or Zack Wheeler be a realistic trade target for Ender Inciarte? Or would we have to aim a notch below, say, for Robert Gsellman?
Dan Szymborski
12:10
Wheeler maybe, given the sizable risk involved. Matz, probably not.
Sean P
12:11
After the World Series, Miguel Montero went on a Chicago radio station and complained about not receiving more playing time in the World Series. Assuming that he is slotted in as the backup next year, do you think the Cubs consider appeasing Montero's concerns surrounding playing time and try to trade him? If so, does Montero have any trade value at this point?
Dan Szymborski
12:11
Montero has little trade value and I doubt the Cubs give him more playing time.
Doc Halliday
12:11
Chances the Jays resign Edwin?
Dan Szymborski
12:11
40/60 against.
5 Run Homer
12:11
Where do EE and Joey Bats sign?
Dan Szymborski
12:12
Blue Jays probably plurality favorite for EE. I could have seen Bautista in Texas if not for events between the two parties.
Cub Fan
12:13
What are the chances the Cubs sign Chapman or Kenley considering they have a lot of money to spend and not that many places to spend it?
Dan Szymborski
12:13
I don't really have a read on where the Cubs are going here.
ryan
12:13
do you have a description of ZiPS methodology?
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