JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/12/19

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Dan Szymborski

12:17

Greedy, greedy man.

WSox

12:17

Am I wrong in feeling the White Sox are just plugging holes, instead of building a winner?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

Well, plugging the holes does help build a winner.

But they've lost out on the stars they've chased.

Which is a problem because the starting pitching will not be very good.

Andrew

12:17

I know this sounds odd but do the Angels really need a front line starter (via trade now) or can they go with someone like Bumgarner(closer to a 3 then a 1/2) and a guy like Wood and win? They did have 43 starts from guys that pitched to an ERA of 7+ (Cahill had 11 starts of 6.98 ERA so I am counting that). I feel like getting that to league average allows them to win about half those games.

Dan Szymborski

12:17

Honestly, I think they nee dto do both.

12:18

Is it possible to trade Mookie Betts and be very close to as good next year? Say something like Mookie for Pederson, Gonsolin (+ maybe?). You get back about 4 of the 6.5 WAR you're losing plus some freed up cash to fill other holes.

Dan Szymborski

12:18

I think it's possible to trade Betts without ending playoff hopes.

Zobel Prize

12:19

Room for upside with Ozuna? His quality of contact is phenomenal, .382 xwOBA this year with a .259 BABIP led to a 110 wRC+. I’ve been seeing some people say he’s just an xwOBA underperformed, any specific reason why that’d be the case? Think he has easy 3+ war potential

Dan Szymborski

12:19

There's certainly upside left. ZiPS thought from his hit profile, he "should have" had a .316 BABIP this year. That's one of the largest differences.

12:21

9th largest BABIP underperformance by ZiPS in 2019

12:22

Top 10 of 300 PA were Dietrich, Bruce, Granderson, Alonso, Profar, O'Hearn, Smoak, Seager, Ozuna, Muncy

Top 10 overperformers were Moncada, Hiura, Tatis, Kendrick, Reynolds, Anderson, Yordan, Moran, Dahl, Bryant

12:23

(zBABIP historically has a 0.58 r^2 with actual BABIP, and a blend of the BABIP and zBABIP that best predicts the following season is 87% zBABIP, 13% actual)

12:24

Gibson sure seems like a bargain now that the pitching market has gone nutso. Rangers are good at nabbing these types!

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I thought he was a pretty good bargain even before this.

TomBruno23

12:24

If David Price's trade value was a sandwich, what kind of sandwich would it be?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

A really nice smoked ham sandwich with fancy cheese, but it's been left out a little while so it's not quite as good as it looks.

mike

12:24

do we actually know that players *try* harder when they are in a contract year? is there any way to prove that?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

Of course we don't know that!

12:25

There's no evidence that contract year players are more likely to outperform projections than non contract year players

WSox

12:25

Who'd you rather- Mazara at $13mil (arb) + S. Walker or Kole Calhoun at 2/$19mil?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

The latter easily

TomBruno23

12:25

Do you like grapefruits? I'm a big fan.

Dan Szymborski

12:25

Is this something sexual? I'm a little suspicious.

But I do enjoy grapefruit.

Though I'm supposed to go easy on acid, alcohol, spicy foods because of gastric reflux

Zobel Prize

12:25

Why would a team give Bumgarner 5 years and 9 figures? Because he was dominant in the playoffs *checks notes* 5 years ago? Highest I’d go would be about half of that, and I know that obviously doesn’t land him, but I’d be very ok with that

Dan Szymborski

12:26

I think Bumgarner's deal is the most likely to go south of any of the top 10 pitchers in FA or so

Big Joe Mufferaw

12:26

Gerrit Cole?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

Not sure what the question is, so I'll have TalkToTransformer field this one.

12:27

Gerrit Cole?

Stalwart stalwart who, despite some outside of the league hopping on board with a cloud of smears on his background in his time with FC Dallas, seems to be a key member of this Rapids squad in 2013. The veteran had a rough start to the season, being lost to suspension and injury before returning to the starting lineup in time for the Black and Gold's June victory over Toronto. He currently leads the team in scoring with seven goals, while contributing three assists.

Hope that answers your question.

Zobel Prize

12:27

Would you rather have Soroka or Paddack for their team controlled years?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

It's really really close. I think if I'm a contender, I want Soroka who's a bit safer, if I'm finishing off a rebuild, Paddack.

I think Braves/Padres each have who they ought to prefer!

TomBruno23

12:28

Black Crowes 2020 (well The Robinson Brothers and Some Guys), are you in or out?

Dan Szymborski