JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/15/22

Dan Szymborski

12:02

And here we are!

Nolan F

12:02

Gotta ask cuz we are already hearing rumblings…do you think there’s gonna be another lockout in 2027? Small/mid market owners are going to demand a hard salary cap because of Cohen

Dan Szymborski

12:02

I don't anticipate labor peace

12:03

Especially if, with so many teams over the CBT and the CBT only growing at 1.5%, teams are quiet in subsequent offseasons

Josh

12:04

Other than a fantastic 2017 International Class, how have the Guardians failed to produce in the international waters. Recent drafts shows they can identify young talent in America, is it just bad luck?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

While I wouldn't say it's *just* bad luck, luck inevitably plays some role in these things

Unless there's a specific team approach that you can point to

Like the O's pretty much abandoning the international amateur market for years!

Nate

12:05

Think something like Garcia and one of Korey Lee/Yainer Diaz is enough foe

Dan Szymborski

12:05

No fair casting me enemies! I don't even know them!

Eduardo

12:06

I kinda love the Diamondbacks young core. How do they take next stop to contending for a wildcard in a stacked National League? Keeping in mind that their owner is cheap as hell.

Dan Szymborski

12:06

If ZiPS isn't crazy, they're not that far off wild card contender status now. But there will be a time they'll have to land big FAs or they'll have to be better developing internally than the Dodgers and Padres and Giants and that's a tall order

Jack

12:06

Dan, what would you say is the biggest weakness when it comes to ZIPS? I have solely used that projection system the last three years and have had success, but wondering if there are any pitfalls to turning a blind eye to other projection systems in conjunction with ZIPS. Thanks!

Dan Szymborski

12:06

Accuracy!

12:07

I'm not just being flippant, the easy-to-find fruit like X type player or Y age player is long kneaded out of all the projection systems

12:08

And some of the problems in a data-based approach, such as dealing with injuries, is going to bedevil similar systems too

Unless someone's figured out to be more granular that way in a productive sense

D backs fan

12:09

Is Pfaadt the #1 pitching prospect for Zips?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

Not sure as I haven't projected everyone yet who COULD be

D backs fan

12:11

Is Corbin Carrol Zips #1 prospect?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

That I'll say probably no - I believe Gunnar Henderson, who I think still has ROY status, edges him

Guest

12:11

Petco was a terrible park for Bogaerts to choose with his declining power, correct?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

It depends what you mean by terrible

It'll make his career stats *look* worse

12:12

but I don't think it'll make his relative stats worse than the average player there

In fact, he's not reliant on power the way some woudl be.

12:14

There's a curious quirk about Fenway in modern baseball that I'm still trying to dig down the consequences of

12:16

I discovered some years ago while doing some exploratory data analysis

12:17

Basically, stars tend to underperform OPS+ projections when moving to Fenway and overperform when leaving. But lesser players have tended to *over*perform the ZiPS OPS+ projections when moving to Fenway and underperform when they leave

Which resulted in me having to add another factor I call SSB (star-scrub bifurcation)

12:18

It appears that the exact quirks of Fenway narrow the differences between players somehwat, especially given the HR-heavy BA-light profile of modern players

12:19

And I get nearly the opposite, though not the same magnitude, for Guaranteed Rate

12:20

which isn't surprising - that's basically the opposite of Fenway, a big HR park that isn't a hitters park for anything else

Pete

12:20

FanGraphs still covering prospects or nah?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

If ciyrse!

Dad, a Man Took Pictures of Me

12:20

So, who’s more pathetic - the Red Sox or Cubs? I lean Cubs since they’ve been there before as recently as like, 10 years ago. But Boston’s descent feels more substantial

Dan Szymborski

12:20

I think pathos is in the eye of the beholder

robertobeers

12:21

A man a Dan a silly chat, ahcyllis anadanama. That sounded like a winter desert fungus some second string Mets first baseman would get

Mike Trout

12:25

If the Mets trade Carrasco but pay the acquiring team his whole salary does that money still get taxed? If it doesn't, would they be able to acquire a useful piece AND save money on the tax?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

Ah, they've thought of that loophole!

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