JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/17/18

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Dan Szymborski

12:21

Not to much - he'll be an upgrade over what they have but a fairly forgettable corner outfielder

DJ Tanner

12:21

If the Rays are more interested in upside, do you think Yandy > Bauers in terms of upside?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Yandy certainly LOOKS like he shoudl hit for more power

Hello

12:21

What do you do with Plawecki/d'Arnaud if you're the Mets? Trade Plaw for a decent LOOGY? See if d'Arnaud can hack it as corner IF/OF guy?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

Depends on the offers really

The Ghost of Dan's Grandma

12:22

Daniel, Daniel, Daniel. Am I forever doomed to cast this incorporeal husk across the meaningless plane of the inbetween? I am naught, ambling towards business unfinished when still burdened with bone and blood and the dead-weight of worldly thought. The unfinished business of a kiss bestowed unasked by the lips of my grandson.

Dan Szymborski

12:23

My grandmother was German and a Lutheran-turned-atheist. She would never be this sentimental

And I wans't super close with my other grandmother because my dad wasn't that close with his family and he died when I was 19

Kervin

12:24

Is argyle plaid?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

Yes?

Purple Mays Haze

12:25

Ever thought to use ZIPS to come up with a top 100 prospects list (based purely on expected projections)? Or maybe you've already done this...

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I did them every year at ESPN!

Presumably now at FG

cheese

12:25

Think there's a realistic chance LAD are considering Machado, with Seager sliding to 2B? If rumors are true that they have interest in Harper, at that amount wouldn't a RH hitter fit the lineup better?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I think that's less likely

Ryan

12:25

Is Pujols' career over?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

Unless something new happened during this chat, no.

It probably SHOUDL be

pelkey

12:26

I'm a total newbie and listen on spotify, so most of the time I don't even know what I'm listening to. I'm super into Dustin o'halloran, but that stuff may not even be considered concerto.

Dan Szymborski

12:29

Well, if you're a newbie, Schumann A minor, Mozart 20, Liszt Totentanz (not strictly a concerto), Beethoven 5, Hummel A minor, either Chopin, Rachmaninoff 2/3, Saint-Saëns 2/4, Grieg

Matt W

12:29

That last thing the Mets truly need is a competent Center Fielder. Should they be pushing hard for Pillar? Or is he not enough of an upgrade over Lagares?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

I'm confused about their whole OF scenario

I'm wondering if Nimmo is in another uniform in 2019

Mr. Glass

12:29

What can the Padres realistically trade Wil Myers for?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

Not much. He's not enticing enough to pay for the privilege of payign

James

12:29

Will Harper get $300 million? Doesn't really feel like any teams will want to give out that kind of money.

Dan Szymborski

12:30

I think he will

@RationalMLBFan

12:30

I understand how ZIPS can project individual performance like BB%, K%, ISO. But I'm a little confused about how ZIPS projects context-dependent stats like R, RBI, W, SV--especially for several years ahead, when a player's teammates aren't even known. What inputs are used for context-dependent stats?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

For team-specific things, ZiPS will regress towards average, simply because that tends to work as a predictor. Great teams don't generally flip

Compton

12:30

In the ARI ZiPS, you mentioned "there’s literally no one in this group I would take as a great candidate to have a breakout season." Super soaker to your head: If you had to pick someone of that group for a "breakout" who would you take?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

K-Tel Records

Sam

12:31

Are there any longterm aging curve WAR projections available anywhere? Thought I remember hearing something about them here?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

I mostly hoard them. We ought to have three years in the spring

Sandy Kazmir

12:31

Is it somewhat easier to be a team like Baltimore that obviously needs so much compared to someone like Texas that refuses to acknowledge they're in the same boat with slightly more present talent?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

Each approach has challenges. I'm not sure Texas is ncessarily wrong - they're a wealthy team and they have some young talent

carrotjuice

12:31

Franz Xaver Mozart's 2 piano concertos were surprisingly good, even though they sounded like two completely different composers wrote them.

The West is Wild

12:31

Dan, thanks for answering my dumb questions. One last one: what park factor did ZiPS use for D-backs pitchers and hitters?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

A three year weighted towards present. The problem is that it's hard to see signal in one-year park effects even though we have an obvious reason for them

CamdenWarehouse

12:32

Galileo would have typos. I saw his Google searches.

PieTraynee

12:32

Tulowitzki seems like he should be a relatively low risk target for the Pirates, no?

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