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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/19/16
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Chaps
11:59
Jon Morosi recently tweeted that the Yankees are interested in Quintana. How crazy could the bidding war between the Yankees and the Astros get?
AvatarDan Szymborski
11:59
Oh, I forgot the hello part.
So, yeah, hello and stuff. You guys know how greetings work.
12:00
Otis Redding
12:01
How do you feel about Max Kepler's .AVG going forward, can he hit average along with his power?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:01
Long-term, I think he'll be a pretty good average guy. He didn't have a lot of time in AAA so I expect improvement wiht more time
Josh
12:02
Does one of Ben Revere, Angel Pagan, Colby Rasmus, or Michael Saunders have to settle for a 4th OF spot?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:02
I think most of them do.
Saunders is good enough to start, but the issue is health.
Jim
12:02
What's the realistic range of outcomes for Pablo Sandoval next year?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:03
From good Giants-type season to hosting a Food Network show called Sports Celebrity Eating Contest.
Matt
12:03
What's the timeline for all ZiPS to be released?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:04
Generally after I've completed all of them. I tried to release ZiPS before I ran them one time and it totally didn't work out.
Sirras
12:04
Suppose you have two players that end the year with the same triple-slash. One player is the model of consistency and hits the same line each month. The other player has two or three absolutely torrid months and the rest of the season is mediocre and hits below his season averages. Does one of these players provide more value to his team? Assume position, defense, baserunning, all else being equal
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:04
Are you talking about past-tense or a theoretical player that is demonstrably onconsistent?
12:05
I guess it's not important - I don't think it really makes much of a difference unless you can take advantage of it somehow.
Especially with hitters.
You essentially want a bad starter to be inconsistent.
12:06
But batter contributions aren't that volatile game-to-game.
Or perhaps better described, there's a hard limit for how much a batter can suck that isn't htere for a pitcher.
Dan Szymborski
12:06
Hey, Dan. That Skip Bayless sure is a dumbass, right? What a maroon.

Not you, though. You're the best. I love ZiPS!
#Legend
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:07
Yeah, everyone's laughing at that today.
Craig
12:07
Can Jose Bautista perform similarly to David Ortiz as he approaches 40?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:08
While he theoretically could, it's not a great bet - Ortiz's bat aged particularly well.
Bautista would need to bounce back from 2016 before we even start thinking of him maintaining it.
Julio Pepper
12:08
I read your ESPN piece as basically saying that the Red Sox traded 26 time-independent-wins for a 4 win upgrade in 2017. Is this accurate? Why aren't more people viewing the Chris Sale trade as the monstrosity that it was?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:08
Well, technically, I was looking at *all* their moves.
12:10
(It includes Shaw and the Moreland signing, which was unclear on the table)
But wins now tend to be more valuable in part because of the knowledge that they're useful.
12:11
And if your wins gain you, say, $30 million in revenue, having that now as opposed to later is useful.
Marc
12:11
What are the Pirates doing? They need to add at least one starter, no?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:11
I have to admit the Liriano trade last summer really confused me.
12:12
They could use a starter and I suspect they bring Nova back
Marc
12:12
Whats taking Nova so long to sign? Think he will ultimately be worth what he signs after his brief success in Pitt (like Happ) or a contract disaster?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:12
I don't think anyone's offering hi big contracts.
Sean P
12:12
Should White Sox fans be upset if Avi Garcia starts regularly next year? If you are Hahn, what would you be doing with their open positional spots?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:12
I'd rather KBO/NPB lotto tickets over Garcia, but with the White Sox not competing, it's not the worst thing ever.
12:13
He helps them get a better draft pick!
Marc
12:13
See Rogue One yet? If yes, worth it to see now or ok to wait it out a bit?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:13
I have not yet.
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