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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/19/16
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CamdenWarehouse
12:13
Is ZIPs for KBO players volatile currently with all the new data points coming in?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:13
Yes, I expect it to be more accurate as time goes on, but we're still getting an exact feel for the level.
Josh
12:13
Love the team projections series. I know the player comps are for fun, but can you tell a little about how we should read them? Player A's projected age-28 season is most like Player B's actual age-28 season?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:15
If x player has y as their top comp from the massive list, it just means that, statistically speaking, x at roughly the same age as y, has the closest established baseline of play and characteristics over their recent previous years.
It's not a Future comp.
Marc
12:15
Caminero to Japan?!? Surely some MLB pen as a spot for him, no? The reds/padres/brewers/twins/angels/As couldnt even pony up something for him?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:15
He's a little wild. NPB does pay pitchers well.
CamdenWarehouse
12:15
Who would be on your ballot if you had a HOF vote this year?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:16
As usual, I want way more than 10, so I'd have to game it a little.
I don't think anybody's a shoo-in, who I would normally skip in this situation (I would not have voted for Maddux or Griffey, for pragmatic reasons)
I'd start with the guys that could plausibly be around 75.
12:17
Bagwell, Bonds, Clemens, Guerrero, Hoffman, Edgar, Mussina, Raines, Pudge
(There are way more guys over 60% so far than usual)
12:18
And then my last vote would be for one of the crowd that could plausibly fall below 5%. Sosa most likely or Sheffield if the former looks safe.
And I'd wait until the last possible minute.
12:19
Hoffman is very borderline for me, possibly even slightly below the line, but the truth is that due to the logjam, clearing a borderliner that can get 75% gives me the opportunity to vote for more deserving candidates in the future.
The 10 limit is dumb.
Guest
12:19
Gerrit Cole: have we seen the best from him? And how worried are you about his injury history going forward? Also, Vogelbach: future hero or just won't cut it? Keep up the great work!
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:20
I would't say that yet, but you should be worreid about any pitcher at all times.
As for Vogelbach, I'm not sure he'll just hit enough.
12:21
Even assuming a 360/420 line, that's not great when you have little defensive value
Snakes
12:21
Does Taijuan Walker turn it around in Arizona? Or is he doomed to be a #3 pitcher for eternity
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:21
It's possible he's doomed, but there's still real upside.
silvpak
12:21
has the dozier scenario basically turned into a game of chicken? his peak value to the twins is really as a trade asset and his value will never be higher; however, the universe of potential landing spots with legit prospects to spin is, barring a total shocker, essentially LAD/SFG/NYY, in that order - the giants don't really have the topline quality to deal, the yankees don't *really* have a need (castro is fine and spinning him/headley would be a zero sum game, ultimately) - thus, the dodgers, who i'd think believe they should be able to land dozier absent *any* of deleon, verdugo, or bellinger, and have kike hernandez/calhoun/barnes as a reasonable backup plan, are drawing a line. make sense?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:22
Most big trades are, to an extent, a game of chicken!
But smart teams do draw lines that they "probably" won't go over. No player has unlimited value. There's a smart price and a terrible price for every player in baseball.
12:23
And the Dodgers *do* want to bring payroll down somewhat in the medium-term. Losing a De Leon makes that trickier.
hscer
12:23
if you were an elector would you vote for wondering how you got there?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:23
I'd probably vote for a Pop Tart. Unfrosted Brown Sugar Cinnamon 2020!
I'd probably never be in that position because electors are essentially chosen for their party loyalty.
bgogden
12:23
Since he wasn't included in the ZIPS article this morning, can you say whether ZIPS seeing Fernando Abad being closer to his early season or late season quality last year?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:23
He wasn't?
Jared
12:25
What current prospect do you think will sell the most jerseys in his MLB career?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:25
Moncada
JS
12:25
Does the Jimmy Rollins signing make the Giants instant World Series favorites?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:25
Obviously!
John
12:25
with the way some teams fail to value draft picks when signing comp FAs (cough, cough the Rockies), why haven't we seen a team blow past spending limits and sign multiple first round talents that slide to later rounds due to 'signability' issues. would seem to be a similar strategy to the blow through IFA pools (eliminated by the new CBA).
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:26
The pools *are* fairly inflexible.
A lot of these guys slip because of their prices.
Unless I'm not understanding the question
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