Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/21/15
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Jake
12:19
Should the Cubs even be considering trading Soler / Baez for pitching? I still see these two as having such high upside that I think I would be upset as a fan if we traded them for any less than a Carrasco / Salazar type. Thoughts?
Dan Szymborski
12:19
Everything should be considered.
In transactions, there should be no sacred cows.
The Dude
12:19
Will the ZiPS projections be updated at some point to reflect roster changes either via trade or FA signing? (e.g. Miller is still listed as a Brave).
Dan Szymborski
12:19
Always are!
12:20
You'll see the Miller projection again when Arizona goes
David Jays Fan
12:20
Is the Jays system really depleted as we keep hearing?
Dan Szymborski
12:20
Not depleted, but they did deal a lot of their top cards off.
Jake from State Farm
12:20
Thoughts on Wil Myers this season? Are his hands/wrists just too fragile?
Dan Szymborski
12:20
I think he'll be OK. Wait and see.
Walt-J
12:21
Chances that all 3 of Brandon Finnegan, Cody Reed, and John Lamb are long-term useful rotation pieces for the Reds? Early returns seem to indicate the reds did well in the trade market last year (Desclafani, Suarez, and the trio named above)
Dan Szymborski
12:21
I think useful, though I don't see any of them being stars
PedroGomezII
12:22
What is the best reading material for developing/understanding projection methodologies? Specific book titles would be greatly appreciated, personal favorites as well.
Dan Szymborski
12:22
Well, there aren't any books on baseball projsections specifically
Silver's books is good and talks about prediction science
12:23
The tricky thing is that lots of the books on related subjects are more academic
The Dude
12:23
What does ZiPS have for $/WAR, and how often does that value change?
Dan Szymborski
12:23
6.5, every year.
mshirk
12:23
What is the baseline for team zips projections? In other words, if the Yankees are projected for 35 WAR (give or take) is that 80 wins? 78? 82?
Dan Szymborski
12:24
ZiPS uses the same WAR baseline as FG/BR of 47.7 wins. But I do not endorse simply adding depth chart WAR.
And as Cistulli has relayed, it may result in a karate chop.
Jordan
12:24
Hi Dan, as a Jays fan, should I be wrapping my mind around the fact that the Jays are going to become the Indians with maybe a little more resources and we will be moving toward a rebuild that could start as soon as the trade deadline if the team underperforms?
Dan Szymborski
12:24
I'm not sure exactly where the Jays are going yet.
12:25
But in the very early returns, the Shapiro Era appears less enthralling than the Double A Ara
The Dude
12:25
ZiPS has Wieters getting fewer PA than Caleb Joseph. Is that because ZiPS expects Wieters to get injured, or that Joseph will be played more often?
Dan Szymborski
12:25
ZiPS has no future knowledge of team desires.
dave
12:25
According to ZiPS. Yanks could graduate early a bunch of guys to replace the old guard this year, and the team wouldn't actually suffer from it. Not sure if a good or a bad thing.
Dan Szymborski
12:25
At least they can add some power.
Bork
12:25
How much would an albatross of a contract like Chris Davis put back teams that really should rebuilding? I'm looking at you, Baltimore.
Dan Szymborski
12:26
As I said, the O's are in an awkward place in which Chris Davis leaving and Chris Davis signing are both disasters
Garboclown
12:26
Obligatory YOUR ZIPS DONT MATCH UP WITH WHAT I BELIEVE ABOUT MY FAVORITE TEAM RABBLE RABBLE
RotoLando
12:26
Get your shorts ready, it's time for DanChat
Alex
12:27
Assuming both stay at SS, who do you like more for 2015 and beyond, Addison Russell or Corey Seager?
Dan Szymborski
12:27
I think Seager's ceiling is a little higher. Love both
RotoLando
12:29
What is your favorite trade of the off-season so far?
Dan Szymborski
12:29
Miller from the Braves side
schumpeter
12:29
Would it be wise for Dodgers start the season with some combo of Deleon/lee/montas/urias filling the rotation holes? They have a tremendous amount of SP depth in AAA
Dan Szymborski
12:29
They may have to - depends who they can bring in
Roberto
12:29
I'm depressed about my Pirates. They're not going into the season with Niese/Locke/Vogelsong getting 60 percent of the starts, are they?
Dan Szymborski
12:29
I don't think all 3 end up in the rotation
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