JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/3/18

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Dan Szymborski

12:46

That's my opinion. I think they'll go after one of the *big* names

pelkey

12:46

let's say you have a 10-win player. a mike trout, if you will. imagine you're going to trade him. there is no such thing as another mike trout, so you can't get the same value back in a single player. so you have to take multiple players in return. clearly ten 1-win players is not the same thing at all. if you received two 5-win players, you get to 10 wins again, but now it's over 2 roster spots instead of 1. if one of the new players is a CF to replace trout, the other one has to play somewhere, there by displacing whoever played in that spot previously. if that player was say, major-league average, then you are replacing at 2-win player with a 5-win player. so you've upgraded that spot by 3 wins, but you've made your team overall worse by 2 wins. this is a very specific example just to illustrate the gain of consolidating WAR in a single roster spot. what i am interested in is a general principle of X WAR at one roster spot is worth Y WAR at two roster spots, Z WAR at three roster spots, etc.

Dan Szymborski

12:46

I think the key here is that you're making WAR do more than it is intended for.

WAR is a brute force stat, one which roughly estimates player value.

12:47

But it's a rough tool, a hammer. Trades are more like using a scalpel, it depends on the exact player, the exact team needs, etc.

Nobody's ever really going to think "Let's get 3-3-4 WAR players for Trout instead of 5-5 WAR players"

James

12:47

If the Astros add Goldschmidt and Grandal, would they have the best offense in the league?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

Likelo so

Matt

12:48

What is more likely - Trout gets traded next off season, or he signs an open ended extension that allows him to decide when he's done playing?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

The latter

Rockie Dangerfield

12:48

Where will Larry Walker land for you in the list of all-time Hall of Fame snubs?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

There are so many that it's difficult

But he's upt here

12:49

Assuming Shoeless Joe is out of the covnersation, Walker's likely the biggest snub at his position at least

he's better than Dwight Evans and he's better than Sosa.

and better than Sheffield

JShaft33

12:49

Is Seattle just cleaning house for their 2021 move to Portland?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

Joe

12:49

I know you're cynical as an Orioles fan (who ain't?), but Elias really seems to be moving the team in the direction of competence. Agree?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

Strangely, I'm optimistic.

Rockie Dangerfield

12:50

Aren't soft-shell tacos just lazy and/or overfilled tiny burritos?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

Yes

Joe

12:50

Why are you a chili fascist?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

I'm a chili freedom fighter

Erik

12:50

Will the Mariners wind up getting Markelle Fultz in the Segura trade?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

They could use a guard, but the shoulder issues are a red flag

Dbo

12:51

Do you let the fact that beans make you gassy affect your personal bias? Can we really trust you to be non-partisan on the issue of beans in chili?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

It's more for other people's benefits than mine.

CamdenWarehouse

12:51

At first I thought your "appeasement is pretty important" comment was about Galileo

Dan Szymborski

12:52

Appeasing a cat is very important.

Though I did not give Galileo a blintz. WTF would he do with a blintz?

Matt

12:52

You didn't' answer my question though. I'm sure a team will sign him to play SS. My question though, is - is any team thrilled about that? Or is it going to be an "ok, fine, you can play SS, we want your bat" situation?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

I don't believe any team is thrilled about him playing SS per se. Any team that likes the idea is either thinking signability or have a great 3B already

Purple Mays Haze

12:52

As you slowly leak out the ZIPS projections by team, can the running aggregate be put on the Projections page? (Similar to how the BOARD has the prospects from the teams reviewed so far...)

Dan Szymborski

12:53

That's something I'll ask at today's taff meeting

Rocko

12:53

The Pads have a plethora of outfielders. If you were AJ, who would you keep? I like Franchy, but don't know if he makes the cut over Reyes, Myers, or Margot.

Dan Szymborski

12:53

I think the problem is that without playing time, it's really hard to figure out who you'd keep

jdavidreed

12:53

Do the Braves move Camargo?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

Dbo

12:53

Any truth to the rumors that you have been planning a hostile takeover of the site and changing the name to "dangraphs"?

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