JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/3/20

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Dan Szymborski

12:00

Last Thursday, you got to eat turkey. THIS Thursday, you get to talk with a big turkey!

DJ Tanner

12:01

Is baseball the only sport where teams in the draft don't always take the best player available? Like Heston Kjerstad goes second overall but only went there cause they got him under slot. But wouldn't how much better Austin Martin (or others) is be worth the extra $1.8M?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

I can't say anything about hockey, but the NBA and NFL have a mechanism that works against this sort of thing: trading draft picks.

Chris

12:02

Was it a mistake that the Indians ZIPS includes Yasiel Puig? Or did I miss a signing?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

IMA GONNA MAKE YOU READ THE ZiPS DISCLAIMER

Turk

12:02

The non-tenderpocalypse was very underwhelming.

Mando

12:02

Will there be a ZiP released today? Pretty please.

Dan Szymborski

12:02

No ZiPS release today as I spent yesterday working on a piece for ESPN

BUt there will be one tomorrow

Zach

12:02

Sorry for my ignorance but how did Shane Bieber's 2021 projected WAR decrease from last year? On the 3 year projections it pencils him in at a 5.1 win season while on the updated ZiPS projection for the Indians it has him at 4.6? He's projected for around the same amount of innings.

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Those are the projections run before the 2020 season.

There are no 2021 ZiPS projections in the team page.

More Quarantine Please!

12:03

Zips is fairly optimistic on Sano for 2021 despite horrendous plate discipline this year. Do you think the projection passes the smell test or should we all be taking the under?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

See above: there is no ZiPS 2021.

12:03

Dan, please help me. I'm 52 and according to you have never had real chilli. Would you be willing to share your recipe here or on Twitter?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Dan's chili, btw:

2 pounds of beef cubed
paste made from a good handful of pasilla chiles, guajillo chiles, a teaspoon of masa harina, and two of those cans of chipotle in adobo.
Salt, pepper, cumin.

Cook for a whole bunch of time at low until it's chili.

12:04

Oh, a couple cups of water.

Actually, tablespoon of masa harina

you can throw all that in a food processor really

(NOT THE BEEF CUBES, THE PASTE PART)

12:05

DO NO PUREE THE BEEF

I CANNOT STRESS THIS ENOUGH

C, eh. N, eh. D, eh.

12:05

Danny Jansen was projected for an 86 OPS+ entering 2020, hit for an 85 OPS+ & saw his 2021 projection rise to 101, one if the largest gains of the players released so far. What's driving that jump? Increased walk rate? xwOBA underperformance in 2020? Getting a year older?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

ZiPS thinks he was a huge BABIP underperformer in 2020

RMR

12:06

Are the Braves going to let Riley get a shot at holding down a starting job this year (at least to start the year) or will they put a vet in front of him? I'm encouraged by some of the under the hood changes he made last year.

Dan Szymborski

12:06

I suspect they are. An OF is more important and they've already brought in Morton

Chris

12:06

If the rangers trade lance lynn what would you guess they would be looking for? A few toolsy far away prospects? Major league ready tweeners? Basically do you think they are sellers or retoolers

Dan Szymborski

12:06

They are sellers now. The Skinny Rebuild has largely failed.

RMR

12:06

ZiPS seems to really like Ha-Seong Kim. Eric's scouting grades, though solid, seem less enthused. What the heck should we expect? Eric has him for 50 hit and 45/50 game/raw future pop. Seems like his swing may be geared to get to more power than that based on the video I've seen? Is Albies a good upside comparison in terms of the line?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

I'm not *quite* as high on Kim as ZiPS is, but I'm still very optimistic

Mike

12:07

Do you have an early clue on what Juan Soto’s zips look like?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

I betcha they'll be good!

LFC Mike

12:07

Greetings and HAppy Holidays Dan.