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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/3/20

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Dan Szymborski

1:02

Not well. The losers overcame their fears and made It feel small until he died.

CeddyBReady

1:02

I'd strait rep Old Bay 24/7 if they wanted. I'd put it on my bat before every at bat.

Dan Szymborski

1:03

Matt

1:03

What kind of turkey did you make this year? I've been doing a variation of Alton Brown's spatchcocked & dry brined for a few years, but I'm in the market for something new.

Dan Szymborski

1:03

We kinda have multiple turkeys

My sister makes the Official Family Turkey

while I rotisseries a turkey breast at home for extra turkey

1:04

I especially miss Galileo this time of year. One of his favorite things to do was to watch the turkey rotate in the rotisserie for two hours, licking his chops the whole time

Even as an old cat, he'd see me take the rotisserie oven out of the closet and run to the kitchen.

He always got the first piece of turkey!

CeddyBReady

1:04

Cheek full of Utz... done and done... do you want me to put extra Old Bay on my Utz... I'm a F#$%&@ schill!

Yahred

1:04

What are your thoughts on the Mariners rebuild? Some young players showed promise last year, should they run it back one more year, or start adding vet pieces?

Dan Szymborski

1:05

I don't think they're at the add vets phase unless it's someone TRULY awesome that they can't get otherwise

Think of a Manny Machado type of signing rather than an Eric Hosmer one

Buck Farmers Only

1:05

Does Mike Trout end up as the weatherman on Good Morning America?

Dan Szymborski

1:05

Mike Trout's going to have three WAR at 73.

Logan

1:06

Bryant for Sanchez—who says no?

Dan Szymborski

1:06

I can't imagine the Cubs do t his

MrMet33

1:06

What is the least amount of innings played at a position for ZiPS to give a player a fielding projection the following season(s).

Dan Szymborski

1:06

I usually give players a DMB rating with 3 games or 18 innings at a position

Jimbo

1:07

Cal Raleigh is the best catcher call up in 2021 or other?

Dan Szymborski

1:07

THE RUTSCH

Matt

1:07

The thing about Hosmer signings is the teams making them always seem to be under the impression that they are Machado signings

Buck Farmers Only

1:07

Has Scott Boras ever left you a long winded voice mail about Hosmer?

Dan Szymborski

1:07

Actually, no!

Guest

1:08

If we took your chili recipe but failed to cook it, would it be a good or horrible tartare?

Dan Szymborski

1:08

Pretty bad. It's got raw masa harina in it

Johnny5Alive

1:08

Lets say the mets go get realmuto and bauer, but they'll still need a CF. Assume they can't also get springer. Based on the non-tenders, which of would Dahl or Almora be more interesting/better bets.

Dan Szymborski

1:09

I'm not starting either over Nimmo

On that note, it's time for me to leave for another week!

CeddyBReady

1:09

Also, all 3 of those chiles are bitter af when they are dried.

Tim

1:09

Whatever. It's your show. I'm not asking how the sausage is made, I was just using a specific player (who has been underpredicted significantly two years in a row) to ask whether it's difficult to deal with performance leaps. I understand that it's easier to just ascribe it to randomness and sample size. Your predictions, like all others, are just well-educated guesses, anyway, so I don't take them too seriously- interesting to thing about, fun when they;re wrong!.

Dan Szymborski

1:10

I'm just not following at all.

I don't even know which Smith you're talking about.

And his "overperformance" has been 91 games.

1:11

I'd flip the question: what, based on information through the end of the 2018 season, would lead you to think a .268/.363/.574 line SHOULD be his baseline?

Because remember, all players aren't SUPPOSED to hit their mean projection.

If everyone hits their 50th percentile projection and nobody hits their 10th or 90th, you've actually done a really crappy job projecting.

1:12

What you're arguing here is sabermetric Calvinism, that just because something happened means it was destined to happen or even likely to.

1:13

Even KNOWING how Will Smith hit in 2019-2020, if ZiPS had projected that as his baseline after 2018, without a requisite underlying reason for such a projection, I'd have said it did a crap job because that was almost certainly not his mean projection.

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